Thread: JTH's Account Talk

Another boring day in the markets, let's see if this F-train can get some steam...

Ok... If you are still in the S-Fund. (been on vacation and did not change my allocations) Do you ride this out or Run for the hills? I know what I feel like doing but would like some input. Thanks all as always!

Originally Posted by wvango

Ok... If you are still in the S-Fund. (been on vacation and did not change my allocations) Do you ride this out or Run for the hills? I know what I feel like doing but would like some input. Thanks all as always!

We should respect and listen to what the markets are telling us, when the month starts off good, but ends badly, it's telling us something. From the options I had available to me, it was the best sh!t sandwich I could eat. This month's potential was squandered, this market is not your friend, small caps lead the way, and in the process they finally dragged down the Transports, leaving only the S&P 500 to fend for itself.

Originally Posted by JTH

We should respect and listen to what the markets are telling us, when the month starts off good, but ends badly, it's telling us something. From the options I had available to me, it was the best sh!t sandwich I could eat. This month's potential was squandered, this market is not your friend, small caps lead the way, and in the process they finally dragged down the Transports, leaving only the S&P 500 to fend for itself.

Well then I am out to F Fund. Thanks JTH!

How the heck do you do it? Everytime the markets belly up, you manage to come out smelling like roses.

Originally Posted by wvango

Ok... If you are still in the S-Fund. (been on vacation and did not change my allocations) Do you ride this out or Run for the hills? I know what I feel like doing but would like some input. Thanks all as always!

Originally Posted by JTH

We should respect and listen to what the markets are telling us, when the month starts off good, but ends badly, it's telling us something. From the options I had available to me, it was the best sh!t sandwich I could eat. This month's potential was squandered, this market is not your friend, small caps lead the way, and in the process they finally dragged down the Transports, leaving only the S&P 500 to fend for itself.

Originally Posted by wvango

Well then I am out to F Fund. Thanks JTH!

Originally Posted by jpcavin

How the heck do you do it? Everytime the markets belly up, you manage to come out smelling like roses.

Thank you for the kind compliment, this was not a successful month, while there was money to be made, I chose to take on additional risk and it didn't pay off. My instincts told me to exit, it was really that simple, and the fact that today is a large down day, only provides confirmation that the markets are right and I am fortunate enough to be aligned properly.

Wow, Jason! Your instincts are accurate to the day. Yeah, it wasn't a successful month, but you always seam to get out the day before the market goes to #ELL. Now that is GOOD!

Originally Posted by JTH

July's Seasonal Forecast

1) AGG will close flat .25% to .50% (Look for 1 July to close down, as it has the last 10 years straight) (Remember the dividend tends to offset Tuesday's payout)

2) SPX will close up 1% to 2.25% (Tagging 2000-2025) (Support @ 1900-1910) (Closed 49 days with less than 1% move) (Prices are consolidating/rotating, expect rising prices until 18 July's Options Ex)

3) W4500 will close up 1.25% to 3.25% (1060-1080) (Support @ 1000-1025) (Seasonally weaker than SPX)

Seasonal IFT recommendation

1) 30 June, IFT 100 C (less risk) or S (more risk)

2) 18 July, IFT 100 G (less risk) or F (more risk) (for short-term allocations, G is the smarter play) (If on 18 July you think the markets will tank, F is the smarter play)

3) 24 July, IFT 100 C (less risk) or S (more risk)

Observation

Within TSP, don't buy on the day of a flash crash. When a flash crash happens, prices quickly gravitate to the strongest area of support where buy orders kick in and ruin your End of Day entry price. This often creates a candlestick with a long tail, wait 1-2 weeks to see if prices gravitates back to the flash crash lows, then take the entry.

Trading Notes

We don’t hope, we calculate, we analyze and we execute.

July's History, going back to 1950

Of the 65 July's on record, 35 have closed up (or 54%) for an average 35-Month positive gain of 4.05%, for an average 29-Month negative gain of -2.64% and a 65-Month average gain of 1.02%

If the first 2 days close down, of the 10 times this has happened there's a 70% chance the month will close down.

If the first 3 days close down, of the 6 times this has happened there's an 83% chance the month will close down.

If the first 2 days close up, of the 27 times this has happened there's a 74% chance the month will close up.

If the first 3 days close up, of the 17 times this has happened there's an 82% chance the month will close up.

Attachment 29300

I've said it before and I'll say it again, I cannot predict the future, every single call I made for July was wrong. If I had followed my less risky G/C IFT recommendation it would have yielded 1.12% (a top-10 performance) while the F/S would have yielded -2.13%

JTH,
Appreciate your before & after reviews .... enjoy the upcoming weekend ... onward to a new month, cheers

I 'd pay you a premiums pay service anyday you start. Keep up the great work.

Originally Posted by JTH

I've said it before and I'll say it again, I cannot predict the future, every single call I made for July was wrong. If I had followed my less risky G/C IFT recommendation it would have yielded 1.12% (a top-10 performance) while the F/S would have yielded -2.13%

Originally Posted by boze

I 'd pay you a premiums pay service anyday you start. Keep up the great work.

Thanks, we should also point out that IT's service did excellent during a difficult month, protecting the previous gains.