Looks like a inverted toilet bowl without a handle; and you know what happens when you have one of those.
I see possible support at 1,650-1,700 range at the most.
Looks like a inverted toilet bowl without a handle; and you know what happens when you have one of those.
I see possible support at 1,650-1,700 range at the most.
I agree JTH. IMO, we have more downside in the cards after a brief rebound. It's going to take some time for the market to get over the QE withdrawals and with every little bit of bad news comes the haymaker.
Hope its not a bottomless pit...
Regardless, I have another IFT loaded for the moon shot but will make it to the party a day or so late.
-Geaux
ROTH IRA progress report.
I'm currently 28.02% in Large Caps (GE) / 18.02% in Mid Caps (SNV) / 28.75% in Small Caps (TNA) and 25.02% Cash. That's a bit heavier than I'd like to be at these levels, but some of those positions were taken recently.
- Stopped out on ALU over 3 positions for an overall -10% loss.
- Still holding GE over 3 positions, down -8.34% w/stop @ 24.03 Since GE is a dividend paying large cap, I may just hold it, but that would go against the rules I setup.
- Still holding TNA, 3rd position triggered today @ 65.84 (the mental-stop price triggered @ 63.85) I'm down -9.76% if I place the stop, it could easily trigger tomorrow.
- Still holding SNV over 2 positions @ 3.45 & 3.21 currently down -5.35%
This may just be the worst start I've ever had. Setting rules with position sizing is not an easy thing to do when the trades aren't going your way. If my trades were going well, I'd be telling you how awesome I was and trying to sell you the t-shirt Still, the stops are in place to protect the bulk of the account, in this perspective I am doing well (judging the depth of the pullback's speed, not so much.)
Attachment 27033
If we should get a bounce, what would the price target be? I'm looking for the exit. I definitely think we will get more selling. Margin levels are too high and there will be margin calls eventually. I'm only down 2% but it feels like 10%. After Fri. close I felt we had more downside but I didn't feel it would fall this fast. I guess good news is bad news and bad news is bad news. It's time to re-group. Thanks
I've updated the projections in my signature block.
The ride to 1740 was quicker than anticipated, that's a -6% cut from the top, a -10% cut takes us to 1665 (1660 seems to be a key level liked by some.) 1720 seems to have some appeal on 2 levels within the Fibonacci timeframes, as does the 1700-1705 area. This is a tough nut to crack, I've been right on the levels, but as usual I'm almost never right projecting when it's going to happen...
Last edited by JTH; 02-03-2014 at 08:17 PM.
Fair warning, this monthly chart on the Dow Jones Industrials shows the December Low Indicator has been triggered...
"All but one of the instances since 1952 experienced further declines, as the Dow fell an additional 11.1% on average when December's low was breached in Q1"
Attachment 27037
JTH
I gotta tell ya- there is no freakin' way I/we can tell you how much we appreciate the time you put into this and the love you extend to the forum (yes i meant love). i know you would put in the time for your own TSP etc but there are not many folks out there that freely help (not intended to bust on premium or any I surely offended- I'm just sayin'). I have the time now (2 mo layed off) to follow but don't in normal year. I started late in GOV and am tryin' to catch up- cant afford another ride like 2008. Know many folks who rode that down near retirement and then got out at bottom- OUCH! Anyhow, I appreciate not just the help but the experienced/nuanced/educated/technical/TIME/ that you put in. My only hope is that you ride a good bounce and keep up the good work...
Not a problem and thanks for the thanks, I do this mostly for my own benefit, but we all look out for each other here, I've lost count of how many times someone has pointed out something I've overlooked, it's a great two-way street
One last tidbit before I head off to bed.
This Monday ranked as the 35th worst Monday & the 11th worst day in February over the past 20 years.
The average negative gain over the top 20 worst Mondays was -4.75% while the average next day's gain was 2% with the following 3 days being somewhat flat.
Up 16% in HEMP I could pull the eject button now, but I'll ride it out to its fruition...
Attachment 27043
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