Thread: JTH's Account Talk

Originally Posted by JTH

From the Previous 63 years, "roughly speaking" April is the 3rd best month:

-- Has the 2nd best win ratio
-- The 5th best average of all positive gains
-- The 2nd best average of all closes (positive and negative)
-- The 5th best average of all negative closes

Can't argue with past averages data, but I would also keep in mind that Banks report Earnings in April, and we all know what they just went through, so that data will be a huge negative for the month. Can't imagine it'll be a "good" thing. ​
​Great job as always. Thank you Sir !!

Originally Posted by Epic

Can't argue with past averages data, but I would also keep in mind that Banks report Earnings in April, and we all know what they just went through, so that data will be a huge negative for the month. Can't imagine it'll be a "good" thing. ​
​Great job as always. Thank you Sir !!

Do you know when in April the banks report earnings? Thank you.

You can filter to this page to show just the financial sector at any span of time. Looks like it really picks up mid-April.

Earnings Calendar - Investing.com

Good morning all

Yea Epic, I'm somewhat loosely tracking the April earnings, and thinking it could be the next excuse to push us back down. Off the 23-Feb high to 24-Mar low, XLF (Finance ETF) dropped -18% so I'm guessing some of those potential bad earnings are baked in the cake. I myself, would like to see lower prices, since I'm actively trading price levels in increments of 3% and sitting at 67% cash.

Here's a brief chart of Friday + the next trading day.

The last 27 times Friday closed up, the next trading day closed up 44% of the time.
The last 27 times Friday closed down, the the next trading day closed up 37% of the time.

FRI=1.png

Originally Posted by Ltrman61

Do you know when in April the banks report earnings? Thank you.

Sorry, I don't have a list. It's various banks on various days.
You could look here >>>> https://www.google.com/search?q=bank...t=gws-wiz-serp

Different institutions have different dates, like Bank of America is April 18th and Wells Fargo is April 14th......
Hope that helps

Originally Posted by Epic

Sorry, I don't have a list. It's various banks on various days.
You could look here >>>> https://www.google.com/search?q=bank...t=gws-wiz-serp

Different institutions have different dates, like Bank of America is April 18th and Wells Fargo is April 14th......
Hope that helps

Yep, that helps. Thanks!

Good morning

Today's charts review this past March and Quarter 1, tomorrow I'll post historical projections for April & Quarter 2. This March closed up 3.51% managing to cover a lot of ground with prices reaching the "Avg. of all loses" but also turning around and closing above the "Avg. of all gains". Considering the financial circumstances, it was an impressive month. Going back to 1960, this month ranked 17th of 64 Months of March, placing it in the top 27%.

SPX DAILY
MARCH-M.png

___
For 1st Quarter 2023, we also have an impressive performance, with the S&P 500 closing just below the "Avg. of all gains" with a gain of 7.03%, which ranks 16th of 64 1st Quarters, placing it in the top 25%.

SPX MONTHLY
MARCH-Q.png

___
Thus far for the year, we've already breached the 63-Year 8.15% average (back in February), so it's conceivable we could reach 4471 or 16.45% which is the "Avg. of all gains".

SPX MONTHLY
MARCH-Y.png

In the meantime, enjoy the weekend

Good afternoon

After Saturday's review of March and Q1, it's time to look into the historical averages of April and Q2.

Originally Posted by JTH

From the Previous 63 years, "roughly speaking" April is the 3rd best month:

-- Has the 2nd best win ratio
-- The 5th best average of all positive gains
-- The 2nd best average of all closes (positive and negative)
-- The 5th best average of all negative closes

We have some statistical tailwinds behind us.

-- All columns have win ratios above the 63-Year all month 60% average win ratio.
-- Over the past 21 years, April has an impressive 76% win ratio.
-- We are in Presidential Cycle year 3 (traditionally seen as above average for the stock market)
-- March closed up, and we closed March above the 12-Month SMA.

APR-01.png

___
The below chart correlates the previous 63 months of April with today's price levels. Climbing 1.45% to the April average at 4169 would take us to the previous February top. Based on historical averages, buyers might consider entering around 3975 and sellers might consider exiting around 4247. This is about a 6.5% price swing between these two levels.

SPX Daily
APR-01-2.png

___
For the previous 63 years divided into quarters, Quarter 2 "roughly speaking" ranks 3rd:

-- Has the worst win ratio ranking 4th
-- The 3rd best average of all positive gains
-- The 3rd best average of all closes (positive and negative)
-- The 1st best average of all negative closes

2023-Q2-01.png

__
Digging deeper, we can see the past 21 years have not been kind to Quarter 2, with a meager 52% win ratio. Historically speaking, June is the month which has dragged down the quarter's performance, so we have time to work and be cautious towards the last third of of the quarter.

2023-Q2-02.png

___
Correlating the previous 63 2nd quarters with today's price levels. Climbing 1.72% to the Q2 average at 4180 would take us to the previous February top. Based on historical averages, buyers might consider entering around 3903 and sellers might consider exiting around 4362. This is about an 11.5% price swing between these two levels.

SPX MONTHLY
APR-01-1.png

Thanks, and enjoy the week ahead, it should be fun

Good morning

The futures have been mostly flat with a slight negative bias, it should be interesting to see how this week plays out.
For the Day of Week stats, the last 27 days have a 59% win ratio (finally above the 21-year 54% bassline). Tue/Wed are weak, Thursday is strong.

Last 8 of 11 days closed up, Mon & FRI last 2 up, Thur last 3 up.
20230331-DoW.png

___
The AutoTracker had a great week, participants gained 2.17%. As expected, with the nice gains, G-Funders were pushed out of the Top-50 with a 39% shift into the CSI funds reflected on the table.
20230331-AT.png

___
For myself, I was dumped on my head on the 22 March exit, so I've settled the month with a 1.49% gain. This bullish wave might be too strong for me to re-enter below my previous 3937 exit, so I'll be satisfied if I can get back in at 3960 (a 50% retracement off the current wave).
20230331-JTH.png

Have a great week!

Good morning

Futures have been positive this morning about +.25%

On Monday the S&P 500 closed a consecutive 4 days in a row. From the previous 21 years, this happened 6.6% of the time. Today's odds of 5 days up in a row are 3%, but if you believe this is the equivalent of flipping a coin, then the daily odds are 54%

20230331-ROW+.png

___
The S&P 500's weighted Top-50 is approaching overbought/embedded levels (in reference to the 10/50/100/200 SMAs). 58% are trading above all four SMAs, and 98% are trading above the 10-SMA, that's pretty darn good.

20230331-T50.png

___
Over the past 5 days, the S&P 500's weighted Top-50 has contributed 1.42% of the S&P 500's 3.69% gain.

20230331-P50.png