Thread: JTH's Account Talk

Good morning

Not much to report, for the AutoTracker, I'm looking for an entry lower than the previous 3970 exit, the lower the better. In the meantime I've been focused on the recent TSP/IRA rollover, getting things allocated, looking for entries. It's a relief to have the archaic IFT restrictions removed, I'm currently sitting 70% short-term bonds, with the rest dipped in Value and Sector ETFs.

As for the S&P 500's weighted Top-50 and it's SMAs, it's treading water with 32% (red slice) under all SMAs and 22% (blue slice) above all SMAs.

20230308-T50.png

Good morning

Comparing this March with the previous 63 months of March, 23 of 63 months closed down for an average -2.76%. Within this context, that would take us down to 3861, about -1.25% off current prices.

20230309-STAT-MAR.png

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The S&P 500 is under the 10/50/200/500 SMAs. On a percentile range scale, all SMAs are in the bottom 74% (or worse). I've reserved the bottom 90% as an indication of being oversold (we haven't gotten there yet).

20230309-SMAs.png

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The S&P 500's weighted Top-50 is the weakest I've seen (since recently tracked). 44% (or 22 stocks) are below their 10/50/100/200 SMAs. Only 10% are above all SMAs, those 5 stocks are AAPL, JPM, AVGO, CSCO, VZ.

20230309-T-50.png

Based on the pain we've already absorbed, I like these levels. IFT EoB today 40G/60C (paper trading). If we go lower than today's close, I'll use the 2nd IFT for another 15% C dip.

20230309-IFT.png

I'm on board with that.

Originally Posted by JTH

Comparing this March with the previous 63 months of March, 23 of 63 months closed down for an average -2.76%. Within this context, that would take us down to 3861, about -1.25% off current prices.

Achievement unlocked

2023-03-10-STAT-MAR.png


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Progress report, from 13-JAN

Originally Posted by JTH

For myself, with the G-Fund popping out pennies, I'm satisfied enough to sit this out while looking to re-enter the C-Fund 3-6% below my previous exit. Good luck!

So I've entered 60% C-Fund at 3861 which is -2.83% under the previous exit, just shy of the 3-6% target. There was a lot of missed potential in January, but I wasn't able to get the lower price I wanted, so the gains were missed.

2023-03-10-TSP-ME1.png

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Currently 12.9% of market time spent in the C-Fund, the goal is to exit with a 1-2% gain, then head back to the sidelines before reaching the 50% time-spent-in the C-Fund mark.

2023-03-10-TSP-ME.png

Good morning

Starting off the week, participants have pushed some chips into the G/F-Funds, while the Top-50 are 67.4% G-Fund. Overall, the board lost 3.5% YTD.
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The Day of week stats remain weak, we are still under the 54% 21-Year Daily win ratio. Last 3 Mondays closed up, while the last 3 Tuesdays closed down.
2023-03-DoW.png

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On Friday, the S&P 500 closed -2.82% below its 10-SMA, this is in the bottom 94.7% percentile of its range, placing it within column 2 of the previous 21-year historical average. While we are strongly under the SMAs, we are not what I would call extremely oversold (yet).

The 50 SMA is in the bottom 87%
The 200 SMA is in the bottom 79%
The 500 SMA is in the bottom 86%

2023-03-10-10SMA.png

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Lastly, in reference to the major moving averages, the S&P 500's weighted Top-50 (52% weight of the index) is also very weak, with a combined score of 23%. We have 26 stocks trading below the 10/50/100/200 SMAs. Only 2 (JPM & AVGO) are trading above all the SMAs.

2023-03-T-50.png

Good morning

Since my cash reserves are at 67%, outside of TSP, I'm buying into this weakness and will continue to do so via position sizing in percentage increments.

Looking at the 2009 crash, from top to bottom, we lost -57.69%, in today's terms that would take us down to 2039 (below the pandemic low). Perhaps not likely to happen, but then again, it's happened before.

In 2001 we lost -50.50%
In 1974 we lost -49.93%
In 1932 we lost -86.10%

20230313-CRASH.png

Good morning

Going back to Aug, Monday had the 3rd largest volume.

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Good morning

Originally Posted by JTH

Going back to Aug, Monday had the 3rd largest volume.

With the futures down hard, and yesterday's rejection of the 200 SMA, it's not looking too well at the moment. I can say there are many times, when a large spike in negative volume, means the sellers are exhausted, and the bottom is near. But sometimes the bottom is 2-3 days away from the large volume spike, we shall see. This whole 3800 level is a point of contention, if you recall, in DEC/JAN we spent about 13 days in this price box.

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Good morning

Nothing significant to report. Roughly speaking. thus far 2023 is in a 10% price box, of which we are 4.37% into this box. So it might be a 5-6% gain to revisit the previous Feb top, or a 4% loss to retest the bottom. In a bull market, I'd gladly accept that risk/reward setup, and even in a bear market one might argue we've baked in some decent bad news. For myself, I think there's plenty of time to wait this out, so I'll stay mostly risk off.

20230317.png

Originally Posted by JTH

I think there's plenty of time to wait this out, so I'll stay mostly risk off.

I think with the G Fund currently at 4.125% Safety is a good play.