Thread: JTH's Account Talk

Good morning

Here's a preview of the March stats, I'll post a more detailed chart tomorrow (waiting for the Monthly 12-SMA's close).

20230228-MAR1.png

Originally Posted by JTH

Thanks for the update, I had my own issues as well. I submitted a full withdrawal on Sunday 12-Feb. I had planned to do a partial withdrawal, so the funds could be disbursed into 2 IRA accounts. Problem was I couldn't do a partial withdrawal without them withholding 20% taxes. I changed my tax bracket setting, but still had issues. I must say they have this website setup shady, as if attempting to scare you away from rolling out your money.

Either ways it's done, now I pray and hope, a paper check doesn't get lost and/or my broker doesn't screw anything up....

The IRA transfer out of TSP is complete, so from start to finish it took 11 business days, not bad.

​Good morning

Closing out the month, February 2023 (when correlated with the previous 63 Februaries), reached both the "Average of all gains" at 4188 and close to the "Average of of all losses" at 3939.

In terms of TSP, trading off those historical levels could have provided "roughly" a 2.59% gain and avoided a -5.01% loss.

20230301-STAT-FEB.png

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For the March historical averages, buyers could consider stepping in at 3861 "Average of of all losses" and sellers could consider stepping out at 4095 "Average of all gains".

20230301-STAT-MAR.png

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Statically speaking, March has been slightly above the 63-Year Monthly Average. The Presidential Cycle year 3 has an 80% winning ratio, but this data set only has 15 of 63 months of data to draw from.

20230301-MARCH-63.png

Originally Posted by JTH

​Good morning

Closing out the month, February 2023 (when correlated with the previous 63 Februaries), reached both the "Average of all gains" at 4188 and close to the "Average of of all losses" at 3939.

In terms of TSP, trading off those historical levels could have provided "roughly" a 2.59% gain and avoided a -5.01% loss.

20230301-STAT-FEB.png

___
For the March historical averages, buyers could consider stepping in at 3861 "Average of of all losses" and sellers could consider stepping out at 4095 "Average of all gains".

20230301-STAT-MAR.png

___
Statically speaking, March has been slightly above the 63-Year Monthly Average. The Presidential Cycle year 3 has an 80% winning ratio, but this data set only has 15 of 63 months of data to draw from.

20230301-MARCH-63.png

Very useful information. Fits into thr master plan where we are headed. thank you JTH. Keep up the good work! 👍😬

Good morning

The S&P 500's Weighted Top-50 is currently trading below the majority of these moving averages, with 23 of 50 (red pie slice) trading below all the moving averages.

20230302-T50.png

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Looking at the data, that's a lot of red...
20230302-T50-1.png

Post 2

Granted, this is not a lot of data to work with...

Left Chart: Over the previous 21 years, the 1st day of March closed down 8 times.

Right Chart: Of those 8 occasions the 1st day of March closed down, the month closed down 5 times.

20230302-MAR-1st.png

Post 3 (a minor note)

Since I've rolled out of the TSP into an IRA, this means I'm now paper trading the AutoTracker. To keep it interesting, my goals are simple. Invest in only the G-Fund & C-Fund, be invested as little as possible (timewise) and outperform the C-Fund. If possible, I'd like to be invested in the C-Fund less than 50% of the time, while also outperforming the fund.

Using part of Tom's spreadsheet and calculating allocation & time, thus far I've been invested in the C-Fund 15.4% of the time.

20230302-ALLO.png

Good morning

Here's a good example of why I don't care to trade based on moving average crossovers. The 50/200 SMA Golden Cross marked the most recent high, to the exact day. Since this golden cross, we've retraced -6.37%

20230303-GOLDEN CROSS.png

Yes, I've noticed that fading the crossover for a short term counter move works, but only short-term. It's because to get to the crossover, the chart is usually somewhat overbought (or oversold on a downward crossover.)

Originally Posted by JTH

Good morning

Here's a good example of why I don't care to trade based on moving average crossovers. The 50/200 SMA Golden Cross marked the most recent high, to the exact day. Since this golden cross, we've retraced -6.37%

Good morning (Post 1 of 3)

The AutoTracker allocations changed little this week, overall the board gained 1.43% YTD from last week. The Top-50 impressively gained 2.31% this week, with 10 members outperforming all the funds.

20230303-AT.png

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After the recent 2-day 3% rally off the bottom, the S&P 500's weighted Top-50 has rebounded back over the moving averages with 16 of 50 are now trading above all SMAs. But the 50-SMA is still weak, with 29 of 50 trading below the SMA by an average -3.31%

20230303-T-50.png

Post 2 of 3

The Day of Weeks stats remain weak (under the 54% 21-year daily win ratio). Recently Tuesday has been the worst, with the last 3 having closed down. Friday has a 64% win ratio, but the last 3 of 5 have closed down.

20230303-DoW.png

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The bad news first. While the recent 2-day 3% gain was impressive, looking at the weekly charts, we still have 4 lower highs and 3 lower lows.

20230303-CHRT.png

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The good news, we've closed back above the Green-dotted October trendline, the 200-SMA, and the 50-SMA.

20230303-CHRT-D.png