Page 758 of 758 FirstFirst ... 258658708748756757758
Results 9,085 to 9,096 of 9096

Thread: JTH's Account Talk

  1. #9085

    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Europe
    Posts
    7,982
    Blog Entries
    279

    Default Re: Sunday: Bears take the lead

    Post 2 of 2

    Last Friday closed up an impressive 1.89% When compared to the previous 21 years, this would have ranked as the 218th best day of 5,287 days, putting it in the top four percentile. Looking at the previous 55 Fridays which closed = or > 1% the next days performance had a 49% win ratio.

    20230112-NEXT.png

    ___
    The Day of the Week chart is largely the same, I've added a Last 27 Days column to giver a shorter perspective, perhaps making it easier to identify a trend change in the win ratios. Last 3 Fridays closed up 1.89% / .40% / 2.28%

    20230112-DoW.png
    Retired (actively passive) 100G _ STATS: 21 & 63 YEAR AVG. /

  2.  
  3. #9086

    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Europe
    Posts
    7,982
    Blog Entries
    279

    Default Re: Sunday: Bears take the lead

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    Going into this week, we can see that (for all members) about 43% are in G/F funds while 51% are in the C/S/I funds. In contrast, the Top 50 are heavy in the S-Fund at 85%, with only 3 members having an I-Fund allocation and they happen to hold the Top 3 positions.
    As of Friday, the top 50 is heavy is the S/I Funds.

    20230112-AT.png
    Retired (actively passive) 100G _ STATS: 21 & 63 YEAR AVG. /

  4.  
  5. #9087

    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Cleveland, Ohio
    Posts
    11,556

    Default Re: Sunday: Bears take the lead

    I wonder how much more bounce the "I" fund has? It's been on a good streak for the last two months.
    May the force be with us.

  6.  
  7. #9088

    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Europe
    Posts
    7,982
    Blog Entries
    279

    Default Re: Sunday: Bears take the lead

    Quote Originally Posted by nasa1974 View Post
    I wonder how much more bounce the "I" fund has? It's been on a good streak for the last two months.
    Yea me too, I would like to take an entry with the I-Fund, but the biggest problem I have with it, is I feel it's more difficult to track multiple countries and the USD all at the same time verses the the C-Fund where I can draw from multiple points of view on the S&P 500.
    Retired (actively passive) 100G _ STATS: 21 & 63 YEAR AVG. /

  8.  
  9. #9089

    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Kentucky
    Posts
    4,965

    Default Re: Sunday: Bears take the lead

    I'm up $2 a share from my I fund buy in, might jump off for a bit take those gains to the G.
    Still under water with my C&S but getting better.

    Win some, lose some.
    In Dog Beers I've only had two.

  10.  
  11. #9090

    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Europe
    Posts
    7,982
    Blog Entries
    279

    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning

    From 2002-2022 there were 113 occasions where the S&P 500 close up = or > 1% two days in a row. From these occasions the 3rd day's average performance is listed below.


    20230124-AGG.png


    ___
    The previous 63 Januaries positive closes have averaged 4.50%. On Monday we closed MTD above this level.

    20230124-CHART.png

    ___
    From last Friday, when SPX closed up, AGG has closed up 55-60% of the time, but when SPX closed down, AGG closed down 63-73% of the time. Sort of makes it hard to want to stay invested in bonds under these conditions where you both win less often, and lose more often...

    20230112-AGG.png
    Retired (actively passive) 100G _ STATS: 21 & 63 YEAR AVG. /


  12.  
  13. #9091

    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Europe
    Posts
    7,982
    Blog Entries
    279

    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning

    Here's a 30 minute view, I've brought the minor support level up to 3885 which was an area of previous resistance and support. This leaves 3962 (a 50% retracement) as an area I'm watching both for price and for the 50/200 SMA crossover.

    20230125-CHART.png
    Last edited by JTH; 01-25-2023 at 09:53 AM.
    Retired (actively passive) 100G _ STATS: 21 & 63 YEAR AVG. /

  14.  
  15. #9092

    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    GOLDEN CROSS
    I haven't heard that term used in a hella long time for the S&P. That's exciting !!!

    https://markets.businessinsider.com/...outlook-2023-1

    If the technical signal does materialize, it would be the first time for the S&P 500 since July 2020 amid the ongoing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Stocks went on to surge as much as 52% after the July 2020 golden cross.
    In December, the Dow Jones Industrial Average flashed the golden cross signal. Since then, the index is about flat.
    I don't need luck when I have stupidity on my side!

  16.  
  17. #9093

    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Europe
    Posts
    7,982
    Blog Entries
    279

    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Epic View Post
    GOLDEN CROSS
    I haven't heard that term used in a hella long time for the S&P. That's exciting !!!

    https://markets.businessinsider.com/...outlook-2023-1

    If the technical signal does materialize, it would be the first time for the S&P 500 since July 2020 amid the ongoing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Stocks went on to surge as much as 52% after the July 2020 golden cross.
    In December, the Dow Jones Industrial Average flashed the golden cross signal. Since then, the index is about flat.
    Yep, within the grand scheme of things, it really isn't something that can be timed perfectly. But for many newer investors, moving averages are one of the first things we learn. I don't trade on MAs, but I always watch those levels because I know other investors care about them. Either ways, it will make for a good news headline for the average investor to read about when/if it does happen.
    Retired (actively passive) 100G _ STATS: 21 & 63 YEAR AVG. /

  18.  
  19. #9094

    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Europe
    Posts
    7,982
    Blog Entries
    279

    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    I've brought the minor support level up to 3885 which was an area of previous resistance and support.
    ​Good morning

    From this perspective, bulls control prices over the past 4/5 weeks. Here is a weekly high/low chart, if we don't go below the previous week's 3885.54 low, then we will have formed 5 higher weekly lows and 4 higher weekly highs.

    20230126.png
    Retired (actively passive) 100G _ STATS: 21 & 63 YEAR AVG. /

  20.  
  21. #9095

    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Europe
    Posts
    7,982
    Blog Entries
    279

    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    ​From this perspective, bulls control prices over the past 4/5 weeks. Here is a weekly high/low chart, if we don't go below the previous week's 3885.54 low, then we will have formed 5 higher weekly lows and 4 higher weekly highs.
    Good morning

    With the Weekly HIGH/LOW chart we can see this week closed out with 5 higher lows and 4 higher highs. The bottom left corner thumbnail shows we've broken above the previous resistance within this triangle pattern.

    20230129-CHART-WK.png
    Retired (actively passive) 100G _ STATS: 21 & 63 YEAR AVG. /

  22.  
  23. #9096

    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Europe
    Posts
    7,982
    Blog Entries
    279

    Default Re: Sunday: Bears take the lead

    Before January closes out, here's a quick preview of February from the past 63 years.

    20230129-FEB.png
    Retired (actively passive) 100G _ STATS: 21 & 63 YEAR AVG. /

  24.  
Page 758 of 758 FirstFirst ... 258658708748756757758

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
JTH's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
JTH's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
JTH's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)
JTH's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes