Thread: JTH's Account Talk

If one believes that we may have at least 8 more months of this Bear market heading down, would you consider putting TSP money into a fund that shorts the S&P like GSSFX using the mutual fund window? I feel like trying to hit short gains with our two IFTs into C, S or I is very hard to do and if the overall trend is likely down for the next 8 months, it makes sense to be in something that provides gains in a down market? I look at autotracker and see that very few (usually less than 30) are beating the G fund in any given month, let alone the year. Your charts on what kind of increase it takes (38%) to recover from the loss (27%) is sobering. Far better to miss some of the upturn than ride it all the way down? Thanks for posting!

Originally Posted by flalaw97

If one believes that we may have at least 8 more months of this Bear market heading down, would you consider putting TSP money into a fund that shorts the S&P like GSSFX using the mutual fund window? I feel like trying to hit short gains with our two IFTs into C, S or I is very hard to do and if the overall trend is likely down for the next 8 months, it makes sense to be in something that provides gains in a down market? I look at autotracker and see that very few (usually less than 30) are beating the G fund in any given month, let alone the year. Your charts on what kind of increase it takes (38%) to recover from the loss (27%) is sobering. Far better to miss some of the upturn than ride it all the way down? Thanks for posting!

Thanks, I don't short, partially because there is not a long-term edge, and I don't want to pay short-term capital gains.

The 38.01% reference does not factor in compounding, for myself, I have 14 positions that are down anywhere from 10-24% so when we breach support levels, I just lower the cost basis. In my situation, (retired) I just want to keep myself in the lowest tax bracket possible. Really my goal isn't to beat the markets per say, but to survive them intact and have buying power in the event we have a 2009 type of event.

As for TSP, I'm stuck in the "dead zone" I'm 49, I can't contribute and I can't withdrawal.

Good morning

I was looking at the daily SPX and thinking it resembled a Diamond pattern, this was confirmed by Thomas Bulkowski, in his Monday Briefing. Although I find chart patterns fascinating, I don't trade them, but it is nice when they provide confirmation of what you're already thinking.

SPX DAILY
SPX_2022-10-24_13-55-18.png

Originally Posted by JTH

Ok, I guess I didn't know TSP.gov's website is jacked up. By my calculations, as of today, I'm actually down -19.56% YTD

Is there anything else wrong I should also be looking for?

The ytd starts when the site transitioned so ~ May.
Not only are they technologically inept, but the English language seems to be beyond their grasp as well.

But hey, fees went up, so they know how to make money.

Originally Posted by SteelSaving

But hey, fees went up, so they know how to make money.

Yes, unfortunately it's somewhat frustrating, in today's terms I couldn't recommend anyone entering gov service to start TSP, just not enough flexibility.

Originally Posted by JTH

In the short term, if we rise into the November elections, then I'll look to exit around SPX 3900 (50% retracement & 50 SMA), either fully exiting into the G-Fund, or exiting from the S-Fund. Either ways, I want to be out of the S-Fund this month, I don't want to swing trade more than 1 fund at a time.

Good morning

We are close enough to a 50% retracement, so it's a good time for me to reduce my exposure to the S-Fund. If we continue to climb into the end of the month, then I may scale back further into the G-Fund.

IFT From 20G/40C/40S to 25G/75C EoB today.

SPX_2022-10-26_15-22-35.png

FACEBOOK META with a $30 dollar gap down. I'm indifferent to see a fall like this, I'm not a buyer at any level.

META_2022-10-27_17-47-55.png

Good morning and happy Friday

Fresh out of IFTs sitting 25G/75C and watching from the sidelines.

For the overall health of the stock markets, I still like the track the Transports, NASDAQ 100, S&P 500 & IWM Small caps. From Mid-August, we have both Fibonacci levels and a 52/21 day linear regression 2-deviation channel, all on the same point of reference.

From this perspective, we've failed to recapture a 50% retracement, and we are overbought on the 52/21 day channels. Price is telling we should go lower to equalize with the channels, adding to this, I'm not sure what catalyst exist to push prices higher from here.

SPX_2022-10-28_12-21-31.png


From the same perspective, we have USD which is oversold and still appears inversely correlated with the stock markets.

DXY_2022-10-28_12-48-48.png

20 OCT 2022: Why Wall Street is warming up to small cap stocks: Morning Brief

"The stronger dollar is less likely to take a toll on these companies, as smaller caps are more likely to do business in the U.S. rather than overseas."

Good morning

October has had a great run. Thus far, off the 12 day bottom, we've climbed nearly 12% and closed above the 50 SMA for the first time since 9 Sep (36 days).

It's conceivable we could eek out another 5% and test the 200 SMA. That's where I'll look to exit into the G-Fund, then re-enter at a lower price point. But if we instead go lower, then at the Fibonacci .786 level, I'll look to buy more C-Fund.

SPX_2022-10-31_13-04-23.png

Good morning

Per the 2021 Stock Trader's Almanac, November is the start of the Best 6 months of the year, and the S&P 500's 2nd best month since 1950. The Russel 2000 also has strong statistics, but only goes back to 1979.

Here's an updated chart with my most recent IFTs, and where I might plan to Sell/Hold/Buy.

SPX_2022-11-01_12-40-50.png