Thread: JTH's Account Talk

Is the bottom in?

Hell if I know...

Trading the Stats:*Week 4

2016 - Week 04 - JTH.png

Originally Posted by JTH

Is the bottom in?

Hell if I know...

Trading the Stats:*Week 4

2016 - Week 04 - JTH.png

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Trading the Stats:***February, Week 5, Part 1/2***February, Week 5, Part 2/2

2016 - Week 05 - Mnth - MISC.png

Well, at least 5 of the last 7 negative January's ended in a positive year... Much higher percentage than the years long ago, it's a new age we live in now.

i also read that although the majority of negative January years ended negative, half of those were positive from February through December... So hopeful...

Not to be Debbie Downer, but I think that if you consider 2016 to be at the beginning of a bear market (as I do, but many don't believe that yet), then it's best to compare 2016 to similar years in that chart...like 1973, 2000, and 2008. So in that case the best performance was down more than 10% for the full year. If we bottom sooner than October-ish though (and I think a bottom as soon as April is possible), then this could easily end up being a positive year.

Originally Posted by Tsunami

Not to be Debbie Downer, but I think that if you consider 2016 to be at the beginning of a bear market (as I do, but many don't believe that yet), then it's best to compare 2016 to similar years in that chart...like 1973, 2000, and 2008. So in that case the best performance was down more than 10% for the full year. If we bottom sooner than October-ish though (and I think a bottom as soon as April is possible), then this could easily end up being a positive year.

I think you need to watch this:
Market Technical Analysis Videos

Originally Posted by daze823

Well, at least 5 of the last 7 negative January's ended in a positive year... Much higher percentage than the years long ago, it's a new age we live in now.

i also read that although the majority of negative January years ended negative, half of those were positive from February through December... So hopeful...

Originally Posted by Tsunami

Not to be Debbie Downer, but I think that if you consider 2016 to be at the beginning of a bear market (as I do, but many don't believe that yet), then it's best to compare 2016 to similar years in that chart...like 1973, 2000, and 2008. So in that case the best performance was down more than 10% for the full year. If we bottom sooner than October-ish though (and I think a bottom as soon as April is possible), then this could easily end up being a positive year.

Not going to argue either point when I believe both cases are valid.

I do believe front-weighted (more recent) statistics are more relevant than older data, this is the key reason I tend to post SPX data from the past 41 years vs. the previous 65 years.

At the same time, I do believe we are in an official Bear Market, I don't care if the S&P 500 has only dropped -16% instead of the traditional -20%, especially when I see the TRAN & small caps have already dropped much lower.

I don't think it will be another 2007-2009, but it will be a stall that I view as a good buying opportunity for those who have the cash to swoop up rock-bottom prices...


Trading the Stats:***February, Week 5, Part 1/2***February, Week 5, Part 2/

2016 - Week 05 - JTH.png

I'm siding with Debbie Downer...

FS

JTH: My apologies for posting on your blog..I meant to include this earlier. Some blog information as FYI. Supports the Debbie Downer theory...

https://www.tradefollowers.com/blog/no-believers/

FS

I'll be watching to see if the 1st-3 days of Feb close up or down...

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JTH-ALPAFS moves from 100C to 100G

SPX/W4500/NDX flipped over to a sell, while TRAN is at a Triple Bottom

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