Thread: JTH's Account Talk

JTH and Turbo, I also have been hammered numb. The only recourse I see is to buy as many shares as possible at these prices. DCA like crazy. Two or three years from now it will be a memory. Turbo if you are on a eight year horizon IMO you need to be making the max catchup contributions if you can (age 50 or over) . These are 2004 prices and they can't last forever. JMHO guys, not expert financial advice.

Originally Posted by justbizness45

JTH and Turbo, I also have been hammered numb. The only recourse I see is to buy as many shares as possible at these prices. DCA like crazy. Two or three years from now it will be a memory. Turbo if you are on a eight year horizon IMO you need to be making the max catchup contributions if you can (age 50 or over) . These are 2004 prices and they can't last forever. JMHO guys, not expert financial advice.

Thanks, I feel better. Chin up! DCA away with a smile to keep the other person feeling postive too.

Originally Posted by 4Runner

Thanks, I feel better. Chin up! DCA away with a smile to keep the other person feeling postive too.

Here is the bottom line for my experience during this market:
10/9/07 My TSP account peaked as did the C fund and I had "X" number of shares.

From then until until April 08 I DCA'd without knowing that was what it's called.

April 08 - Oct 01 2008. I continued to contribute and made a small gain overall during this period about 4% using the IFT limits.

10/1/08 on, due to losses I am DCAing again until price rises. I have 20% less dollar value in my account than I did in Oct 07 but I have 16% more shares. So when the market recovers and it will; I will be better off overall. Be proud Birch I'm learning.:toung: Calcs like this make me feel more comfortable about my declining balance because I am increasing shares and I will contribute the max 20,500 by the last payday this year. Hope this helps, it helped me doing the calcs.

Originally Posted by justbizness45

JTH and Turbo, I also have been hammered numb. The only recourse I see is to buy as many shares as possible at these prices. DCA like crazy. Two or three years from now it will be a memory. Turbo if you are on a eight year horizon IMO you need to be making the max catchup contributions if you can (age 50 or over) . These are 2004 prices and they can't last forever. JMHO guys, not expert financial advice.

Originally Posted by 4Runner

Thanks, I feel better. Chin up! DCA away with a smile to keep the other person feeling postive too.

Here is something to think about. During the previous recession, the S&P declined for 3 straight years. Sure, there were huge rallies along the way, but the overall trend was down. The scary part this time around is that some people are skipping the recession and going right to a depression. Whether they are right or not, I have a feeling that what ever is coming is going to much worst than the previous recession. We are only in the first year.

So, I'm not a big fan of DCA or buy and hold.

Originally Posted by justbizness45

Here is the bottom line for my experience during this market:
10/9/07 My TSP account peaked as did the C fund and I had "X" number of shares.

From then until until April 08 I DCA'd without knowing that was what it's called.

April 08 - Oct 01 2008. I continued to contribute and made a small gain overall during this period about 4% using the IFT limits.

10/1/08 on, due to losses I am DCAing again until price rises. I have 20% less dollar value in my account than I did in Oct 07 but I have 16% more shares. So when the market recovers and it will; I will be better off overall. Be proud Birch I'm learning.:toung: Calcs like this make me feel more comfortable about my declining balance because I am increasing shares and I will contribute the max 20,500 by the last payday this year. Hope this helps, it helped me doing the calcs.

Yes, but wouldn't you have more shares had you been buying into the G fund all this time and covert those to (whatever: C or S) today? Your dollar cost per share has been dropping, so those dollars would buy more shares had you not been investing in the equity funds this year.

Originally Posted by 350zCommTech

So, I'm not a big fan of DCA or buy and hold.

Thanks 350z, not my first choice either. I am unwilling at this point to realize the loss and miss the rally that is due to being so severely oversold. So I will DCA for awhile and hopefully not be too sorry.

Originally Posted by 350zCommTech

Here is something to think about. During the previous recession, the S&P declined for 3 straight years. Sure, there were huge rallies along the way, but the overall trend was down. The scary part this time around is that some people are skipping the recession and going right to a depression. Whether they are right or not, I have a feeling that what ever is coming is going to much worst than the previous recession. We are only in the first year.

So, I'm not a big fan of DCA or buy and hold.

You make some great points. We are in the early stages of the downtrend and 2009/10 are likely to be a wash. In times like this, under TSP's restrictions, I'd be smarter to stay in G and gain the guaranteed money.

Originally Posted by Frozen

Yes, but wouldn't you have more shares had you been buying into the G fund all this time and covert those to (whatever: C or S) today? Your dollar cost per share has been dropping, so those dollars would buy more shares had you not been investing in the equity funds this year.

Don't get me wrong, I am not a DCA or buy and hold advocate. If I had been in G for this period we wouldn't be having this discussion. MY point is if you have been hammered (-22% this month) and you think the market will rise up then DCA is the only option IMO. If you think the market will continue to tank then G may be a better choice. I still think we will a 1050 or above upside before the next big drop and that's where I am placing my bet.

Originally Posted by justbizness45

I still think we will a 1050 or above upside before the next big drop and that's where I am placing my bet.

I hear ya! If you offered me 1050, I'd take it and happily enjoy the 110 point loss

Originally Posted by JTH

I hear ya! If you offered me 1050, I'd take it and happily enjoy the 110 point loss

Sorry to borrow your thread, talking heads on CNBC this say that bottom may be near and we may go up towards OPX week. Sorry about the comment I made yesterday in my own thread, it was stupid - we're in this together and we'll come out of this together. So its possible that we can see 1050 soon.

Originally Posted by 4Runner

Sorry to borrow your thread,

Feel free to drop by anytime. The great thing about CNBC, is the smart ones (the ones I like) admit the don't have a clue what this market will do next. My own opinion is that we won't see 1100 untill next year.