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Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

  1. #2413

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Will traders believe the AH vaccine hype enough to at least hold as Covid cases rise? Job #s improving, POTUS' no lockdown under his watch assertion, would add market support. I remain all in.

    Sent from my SM-A115U using Tapatalk

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  3. #2414

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    I anticipate: 1. despite surges in new Covid cases, lockdowns will be limited and ineffective, given that transmission is largely in private indoor gathering and, more importantly, 2. these new cases will plateau soon, because not everyone is stupid enough to have an unmasked party.

    Airlines appear to be adding back flights and filling them with passengers, but a long way to go....doing no worse financially due to layoffs.

    Vaccine? Meh....I kinda doubt it is the answer...I'm leaning towards accepting the normal cycle of pandemics, maybe a little shorter for this one, and less deaths due to modern medicine....another year or so to go. Could be shorter but that would presume a sudden common sense overwhelming the ignorant into wearing masks and foregoing private fatherings for 2-4 weeks.

    Not gonna happen.

    Sent from my SM-A115U using Tapatalk

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  5. #2415

    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Cleveland, Ohio
    Posts
    12,151

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    I anticipate: 1. despite surges in new Covid cases, lockdowns will be limited and ineffective, given that transmission is largely in private indoor gathering and, more importantly, 2. these new cases will plateau soon, because not everyone is stupid enough to have an unmasked party.

    Airlines appear to be adding back flights and filling them with passengers, but a long way to go....doing no worse financially due to layoffs.

    Vaccine? Meh....I kinda doubt it is the answer...I'm leaning towards accepting the normal cycle of pandemics, maybe a little shorter for this one, and less deaths due to modern medicine....another year or so to go. Could be shorter but that would presume a sudden common sense overwhelming the ignorant into wearing masks and foregoing private fatherings for 2-4 weeks.

    Not gonna happen.

    Sent from my SM-A115U using Tapatalk
    So my question to #1; yes they are saying that it appears that the private gatherings are contributing to the increased COVID numbers. Here is my question, how is it getting into the private gatherings? Somebody within the group is picking it up from somewhere; bars, restaurants, gyms, grocery stores, house of worship? It doesn't just show up and knocks on the door.
    #2 Yes, there are enough stupid people that don't wear masks to parties, when out shopping and social gatherings.
    May the force be with us.

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  7. #2416

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by nasa1974 View Post
    So my question to #1; yes they are saying that it appears that the private gatherings are contributing to the increased COVID numbers. Here is my question, how is it getting into the private gatherings? Somebody within the group is picking it up from somewhere; bars, restaurants, gyms, grocery stores, house of worship? It doesn't just show up and knocks on the door.
    #2 Yes, there are enough stupid people that don't wear masks to parties, when out shopping and social gatherings.
    Answer to question on #1: They got it at another private, unmasked, gathering (not a bar, restaurant, gym, grocery store, or house of worship). They can't really get into almost any store without a mask (at least in California, and we still have lots of cases, exception being liquor/convenience stores - which don't follow rules; our bars/gyms/restaurants are now closed, again)

    I think regarding #2, I see the outcome being the stupid reaching herd immunity...assuming reinfection is limited.

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  9. #2417

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Soooo:

    Since the market has departed from the inverse relation between new Covid cases and index price, what's my next theory? Are you ready? Here it is:

    Amoeba's "it's not so bad after all" theory.

    -people are tired of sitting around, spending less, so instead they get together indoors, without masks with their gangs....and spread Covid further than if not locked down.

    -money not spent by the affluent due to Covid (more houses, boats, vacations, charities) - is making it's way into the market.

    -Covid-resistant plays (e.g., semiconductors, as if Covid has any effect on cell phone sales, it would be a positive one; Biden plays to the extent not ridiculous - solar, lithium (e.g., HASI, ALB, but not TSLA) shift into a higher gear; anything that can be done outside construction wise (e.g., AA, MT, URI, homebuilding/renovation).

    -anticipatory plays to come next (e.g., travel, leisure, airlines).

    -laggards will continue to lag until someone does something about it (e.g., REIT/mREITs)

    It's not so bad, there's a bull market somewhere....usually (not including March 2020). Be careful.

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  11. #2418

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Unfortunately, covid went out of control with 187K new cases , 1,900 deaths, today, rampant infection due to unmasked gatherings, and absent guidance from any State to educate or force compliance. I fully expect another doubling of daily cases and deaths. This has nothing to do with Trump or politics.
    Stimulus isn't coming until January.

    If this continues as just described, I see 3,000 SPY being challenged before EOY.

    Sent from my SM-A115U using Tapatalk
    Last edited by tsptalk; 11-21-2020 at 12:19 PM. Reason: edited (politics)

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  13. #2419

    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Boiled Peanut, Georgia, USA
    Posts
    76,396

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    We should be discussing the Market and our TSP. We can argue forever and not solve a thing, so why don't we cool it and discus the MARKETS!!!!!! We are trying to stop this kind of arguments so we can do better in the markets. If this continues we poor MODS will take actions, savvy?bandagesbloody1.jpg



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  15. #2420

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    I will watch from the sidelines, sensing the market sentiment balance swaying bearish with the promising initial Covid vaccine data being more offset by the rising deaths/cases....next week is normally light volume, but with travel and business abated by various Covid measures, homebound traders may question the pace of actual recovery, which depends on a perfect sequence of events....the public taking the vaccine, the vaccine actually being effective in non trial circumstances, the permanent job losses being replaced by not yet defined alternatives, and then...in the interim...survival of travel and leisure industries...which could require an earlier and larger stimulus. This might all happen timely, or it might not. Personally, I believe the calendar year market high (and low) have been put in.

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  17. Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by nnuut View Post
    We should be discussing the Market and our TSP. We can argue forever and not solve a thing, so why don't we cool it and discus the MARKETS!!!!!! We are trying to stop this kind of arguments so we can do better in the markets. If this continues we poor MODS will take actions, savvy?bandagesbloody1.jpg
    I second the motion.


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  19. #2422

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Coolhand remains bullish; I was, but not since last Friday, when I sold all 3X ETFs, metals, financials, semis, and more (SVXY, CURE, SOXL, TQQQ, ALB, MT, AA, DPST). I sense a haircut this week, on the order of 5%, more or less. Funds settle Tuesday. Sitting on 65% cash, considering short/inverse plays. Uncertainty includes Covid, stimulus, neither showing promise in immediate term.

    Sent from my SM-A115U using Tapatalk

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  21. #2423

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    Coolhand remains bullish; I was, but not since last Friday, when I sold all 3X ETFs, metals, financials, semis, and more (SVXY, CURE, SOXL, TQQQ, ALB, MT, AA, DPST). I sense a haircut this week, on the order of 5%, more or less. Funds settle Tuesday. Sitting on 65% cash, considering short/inverse plays. Uncertainty includes Covid, stimulus, neither showing promise in immediate term.

    Sent from my SM-A115U using Tapatalk
    I forgot, I also dumped a sizable position of ERX last Friday. But I'm holding NAIL (a net loser so far in this trade), and added to it, expecting good things as TOL, HOV, PLT, others, report. I couldn't resist fishing for gold at the end of a rainbow, and added to small positions in MPLN (don't understand what they do, other than the stock bottomed out and is going up), and MP (rare elements for magnets for various things). Also holding a big chunk of airlines (AAL) as a stimulus deal/Covid recovery play, but would like to see at least a 30% gain before I sell that one. Most of what I sold retreated today, except lithium.....

    Pulled a modest amount out of TSP equities (10% more), into G. If a stimulus deal is baked in - I sure would like to know if it is going to happen, or not, and when. If I were to guess, I would have said 2 months ago. Mounting permanent job losses (long term unemployed, discouraged workers, other parameters) will not be coming back any time soon.

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  23. #2424

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    I've been averaging out...now 21% equities in TSP...sold outperformers in Roth ALB, HASI, down on DPST, FAS, but holding an outlying winner in sector OZK. Largest long term positions are IPO, ARKK, BDX. Took a large position in SVXY at the morning low today...high risk. Chop expected.

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