Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

Originally Posted by rangerray

Moving to G should never count as one of our allowed IFT’s, IMHO


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My 1 cent: ABSOLUTELY!

It's been awhile. I have been aggressively buying Covid plays, or anything that is shielded from or benefitted by social distancing (AMZN, NFLX; which I sold this morning; and added to MNRA which was already my largest position). I'm eeking my way back to 0% return on my Roth and TSP (+/- <1% as if this post). I remain long over the weekend (60% equities in TSP, 90% in Roth), when I expect Monday's new Covid case #, reported by the CDC at market close, to be under 25K for the first time in weeks, and a saltatory reaction on or around Tuesday - at which point I hope to meet short term sell goals. Beating the G-fund will be the first standard, but I'm not going to be able to retire on that (and certainly not on worse than that).

Covid new case# at the Friday close didn't show a decline (slight increase, nationwide), but more promising #s from New York State, California. Anyway, the weekend allows a few days more data to accumulate before the Monday open. I hope to pull at least +2% in my TSP this month, and +10% in my Roth. Soon, however, this rebound will be in an overshoot situation, which could result in some retreat fluctuation. But the likelihood of better news (e.g., PPE, testing, availability, etc) over the coming weeks makes me greedy for every last bit of this bounce.

Covid new case# nationally dropped to 26K as of today's latest from the CDC. Markets should recover some tomorrow, hopefully more later this week.

Originally Posted by amoeba

Covid new case# nationally dropped to 26K as of today's latest from the CDC. Markets should recover some tomorrow, hopefully more later this week.

Famous last words ("should recover some tomorrow") completely the opposite; continued to tank throughout the day; hitting my TSP loss/gain tolerance this month (2% either way) today; I entered two IFT's to average out of equities (31% today, 20% tomorrow, out of my initial 60%)....hopefully end the month no lower than -3% for the year and try again in May. After tomorrow I will be sitting at 41%F/50%G/4%C/5%S.

C fund totally ratted by shorting of oil; S fund I thought would rally with announcements of more loans; but it didn't. In my non TSP investments, I have been heavily in health care Covid plays, which also didn't rally. And I was heavy in inverse volatility, which hadn't gone anywhere in weeks, then down today.

And, finally, Covid new case# dropped much further, to 20K as of the CDC release 20 minutes ago, on top of the drop from the constant last 7 days of 29K to 26K yesterday. So I had that right, but the market sold off anyways. I guess that last data is why I held 30% equities into the close, hoping that it could recover tomorrow.

Now I just don't know what to think....not that warm and fuzzy all over feeling to be sure.

Well today was just plain tough:

Eeked out small gains in what is left in my TSP (mostly G/F); and in my Roth - got completely out of Covid plays just before the bottom dropped out of all of them - as news (from the manufacturer, GILD) got out - that the leaks out of China of effectiveness of its Remdesivir were false. This destroyed whatever confidence there was in health care plays, whether it be vaccine or treatment; and took the air out of everything else - some fliers like NFLX took a hit, while others did not (CMG). I feel fortunate coming out of this flat - which doesn't help after losing money; but not losing more is better, I guess.

The other morsel of data comes out of aaii (dumb money); which posted an astounding 25/50 (bull/bear) reading; now, some would take this as bullish going forward but I do not....something similar happened in December 2018 and it took 3 weeks to crater to a bottom. That is a firecracker compared to the current economic shutdown situation.

So, if some were expecting a retest - I still think that's a bit too pessimistic, but I wouldn't argue with anyone who thinks there's another drop coming. I would say 10% down by end of month....neighborhood 2,500-2600....SPY.

If cures for Covid aren't a successful bet (or overdone) and large caps are flat or declining; I'm running low on ideas; I guess it's time to look again at the earnings calendar to come up with something.

Friday's rise was a surprise to me, given the absence of any progress towards pandemic control..no drop in new case # (a big jump Friday, though reported after the close ...36K new cases vs 29K prior day), no better availability of PPE, not much better testing, no treatment discovered, and hence, talk of reopening the economy is premature. So is this rebound. If the economy reopens under these circumstances, a second larger wave of infections is a near certainty. Still, the investment decision is whether the market's next short term move is up or down. I say down before May, hence, I reduced from 9 to 2% equities COB Friday, with 57%G/41%F for the balance. This could change depending on future Covid case#, which is stubbornly stuck in the 26-36K/day for weeks with max social distancing. That's 1/10,000 daily infection rate Nation wide. From my own observation in California, community spread isn't random. Some people remain in groups, get too close, and don't use PPE. Inevitability, a few of those are asymptotic carriers, and responsible for all of the new cases. Stronger, not more relaxed, measures will be needed. And enforcement. I predict "masks and gloves required", will be next...as soon as there are masks and gloves for everyone to wear.

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Put simply, covid new case # down sharply, to 23K. A few more days like this and the sky is the limit. Expect money to come off the sidelines, and rotate out of covid plays, into other more beaten up sectors...small caps, home construction, associated materials, and retail. Face masks and antibody test kit gear were my only positive positions today (MMM, CTLT). If covid # starts rising again for the rest of the week, well, that's another story.

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Another day, another missed opportunity in TSP, but profits taken in Roth as two holdings quickly hit their gain objective of 15% (CTLT, TNA - in one day after buy no less). I ventured into some earnings reports, one of which flopped (EBAY), another faired well (TSLA), and I wish I had Facebook, but didn't, still waiting on BZH, wish reports before the open tomorrow, and MMM (facemasks, ventilators, etc) and CLX a bit later. I'm in no rush to re-enter TSP equity funds head first next month....will need to assess the various factors - moving averages, sentiment, and so forth.

For the first time since this hit the fan, I was given a pair of gloves upon entering a hospital and masks were available All entrants had to wash hands as well (outside), and protective gear had to be worn...hopefully this will expand to retail commerce as PPE becomes more available. Otherwise, new covid case # (now a highlight on the first page of the CDC site) will not go down.

I put little stock, and no money, on any of the latest treatment/vaccine news; all these issues are overbought, overhyped, and of unproven effectiveness. That GILD Remdesivir is nucleotide drano, not specific for corona, abundant side effects, and potentially only helpful in the very sick. If there is a large need to get junked up on that, then it means the country is sick, and the prevention measures aren't working. The short story is this is no reason to buy into the whole market.

But a decline in new case # is a good sign, in that regard, CDC chalked up a second consecutive day in the 23-24K range. Don't touch anything, don't get breathed on, and stay away from people without PPE, especially from outside your household, and wear PPE yourself...always. Resist the urge to hang with your homies until this is under control; drinking, watching TV, one-nighters, running, biking, walking in groups of 6+...let natural selection take its course on someone else; no reason to participate in that process; if you know what I mean.

If you aren't doing this, then you don't know anyone who had this virus....it truely is a beast of a disease....a potential killer. Be safe, please.

New Covid case # jumped up to 31K today (posted after today's tepid close). A weekend in the 30s or worse isn't going to help although these unadjusted numbers aren't the true story (i.e., not cases per test; that number will be posted in the weekly summary tomorrow, it has been declining - and "should" continue to do so).

But - this isn't shaping up very well. I sold CLX after earnings for a little profit, not as much as I had hoped, and rotated into ATVI which reports Tuesday. No TSP moves. I expect a bit more market weakness in the days to come. I guess POTUS wasn't satisfied with GILD's stock price movement after the politically-motivated, undeserved, FDA approval of Remdesivir, so he held a news conference 15 minutes before market close. Awesome.

Alright enough Covid talk...you're all gonna get it way before any vaccine, if there ever is one, gets approved, so accept that, wear a mask correctly until then, and deal with it. Get on with your lives. I'm all in, yall can sit in your bunkers in G fund forever...I'm not. Yee Ha!