Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

You people are not only brilliant, but entirely entertaining. Here's to the other sock🍻

Well...I cashed in on an earnings day bet on ALB, which barely missed EPS and gained 10% anyways. I'm in equities in TSP and not making much headway this week. Aaii came in unchanged with a 2nd consecutive reading of 40%+ bulls, which is bearish, but maybe not because the 2 readings are so similar. As with the last couple Thursday evenings, sentiment has become again bearish towards Friday due to coronavirus concerns. Various central banks, but not ours, could react with stimulus. A mixed bag. I'm neutral, may go to G for the rest of the month. Undecided.

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Originally Posted by amoeba

Well...I cashed in on an earnings day bet on ALB, which barely missed EPS and gained 10% anyways. I'm in equities in TSP and not making much headway this week. Aaii came in unchanged with a 2nd consecutive reading of 40%+ bulls, which is bearish, but maybe not because the 2 readings are so similar. As with the last couple Thursday evenings, sentiment has become again bearish towards Friday due to coronavirus concerns. Various central banks, but not ours, could react with stimulus. A mixed bag. I'm neutral, may go to G for the rest of the month. Undecided.

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Should have listened to myself. Didn't. Reduced from 90 to 55% equities Friday, then 35 and finally 2%, Monday and Tuesday, respectively. The result is this ongoing bloodletting not only zero'd me out, but put me in the red for the year. I stand by my earlier post that corona virus will NOT have a sustained economic effect. It isn't as virulent, or contagious, as MERS, SARS, or even the flu. It will be fully contained in 3-6 months, and new cases will taper in 9-12 months. That's normal. What's not normal is the market's schitzo reaction, droppinga day, going higher the next Monday (2 weeks ago), then, this past week, dropping on Friday, and the market panics the following Monday. Large volume last 2 days....but not washout level (e.g. 100-240 M SPY, vs high of 300-600 M during recent correction bottoms). So, if there's a deadcat up day in the near future, I'm cashing out...if no deadcat...well, some stops will come into play over the next 5% down.

I didn't read much about any previous outbreaks that you mention, MERS, SARS, etc. I read a report from a bank in Japan that reported a 42% drop in coal consumption in Chinese factories that the Japanese bank tracked. To me, that would indicate a pretty significant hit to the world's economy. A temporary hit, but a hit that is going to be noticed/felt everywhere.

Originally Posted by amoeba

Should have listened to myself. Didn't. Reduced from 90 to 55% equities Friday, then 35 and finally 2%, Monday and Tuesday, respectively. The result is this ongoing bloodletting not only zero'd me out, but put me in the red for the year. I stand by my earlier post that corona virus will NOT have a sustained economic effect. It isn't as virulent, or contagious, as MERS, SARS, or even the flu. It will be fully contained in 3-6 months, and new cases will taper in 9-12 months. That's normal. What's not normal is the market's schitzo reaction, droppinga day, going higher the next Monday (2 weeks ago), then, this past week, dropping on Friday, and the market panics the following Monday. Large volume last 2 days....but not washout level (e.g. 100-240 M SPY, vs high of 300-600 M during recent correction bottoms). So, if there's a deadcat up day in the near future, I'm cashing out...if no deadcat...well, some stops will come into play over the next 5% down.

This unusually fast move, unbroken by a single green day, is finally attaining enough volume to perhaps attract some buyers. Aaii came in at 30% bulls, down from the prior 2 weeks in the 40s, but not strongly negative. This mismatch between sentiment and the depth of the correction is concerning. An up day should come soon, but I'm unconvinced a bottom has been put in.

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This is going to be bad! China PMI st lower level than during 2008-9 Financial Crisis. Be careful out there!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/think.i...ket-on-monday/

Skru this..I'm not buying...I call the bottom somewhere around the 52 week low in SPY, 2,720. I'll stay parked in G and F until then, likely later March or April.

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Not buying today either. Bear trap. Sucker's rally. No thank you. Go recapture the 50 EMA and I'll think about it.

Aaii bulls AND bears increase to 40%, while neutrals drop to super low 20. Need to wait another week minimum to see direction on sentiment and markets. Too risky still.

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50% in the market
50% out of the market

Kinda bored. Don't have to buy and don't have to sell. Snoozing this out.

I just want to know if there's a single reader who bought at the slight turn today at 1040AM PST. It just seems so foolhardy to try to time this; even though some of the inverse volatility derivative plays (e.g., TVIX), have tripled. This is going lower; much lower; whether or not volatility settles.