Page 194 of 206 FirstFirst ... 94144184192193194195196204 ... LastLast
Results 2,317 to 2,328 of 2469

Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

  1. #2317

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Or a missed year of losses, like 2018.

    Quote Originally Posted by weatherweenie View Post
    Missed day of gain is much better than missed year(s) of gains.

  2.  
  3. #2318

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    When I wrote the post, I wasn't thinking "current events" as in news, but the current events as in the current status of the market. Which is not that good. P/E stretched, slowing growth in China, little room for interest rate easing, and some concerning job statistics that could indicate economic slowing (e.g., wage growth, job#), yet, it doesn't slow. As far as news events - maybe there's a new normal here - as in "let's go see if we can pin something on Trump before he gets elected again" - maybe that's just so gridlocking that market traders have concluded that nothing will change, or at least, not change for the worse. Meaning 5 more years of the same thing as the last 3+. But the two years haven't been as bountiful as 2016-2017 so I'm not sure what we'll get. So yes, I'm not enthused by the last 2%...I recall corrections much more than 9% in recent memory too. I will feel better passing on that. But hey, I'll consider adopting a minimum equity position. Not the worst idea.


    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    What current events??? The normal. Stuff like this happens all the time. Whatever the stuff is.

    Who cares if your shoes are glued together in China or Vietnam? Really, who cares.

    You guessed S&P500 at 2700 or less. It is 3000 or more. An absolutely catastrophic crash to 2700 is window jumping 9% decline. Oh, the humanity. But, instead the market has gone up a whopping 2%. Joy to the world. Hosannas all around!!!

    Who cares if the market meanders around like it has. Don't be all out - or you will miss the early growth. Don't be all in - September and October are known to be horrid market months. Be just right.

  4.  
  5. #2319

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Rocky Mountain High
    Posts
    6,960

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    I personally was able to eek out a 2.99% gain in 2018.

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    Or a missed year of losses, like 2018.
    Weatherweenie's Account Talk
    Teddy Roosevelt: Patriotism means to stand by the country. It does not mean to stand by the president or any other public official. Retired on November 30, 2023 with 30+ years of service.

  6.  
  7. #2320

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    That's 100X my 0.02% gain for 2018.
    A disaster, really....had over 10% in October.

    Quote Originally Posted by weatherweenie View Post
    I personally was able to eek out a 2.99% gain in 2018.

  8.  
  9. #2321

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    Or a missed year of losses, like 2018.
    Kinda depends on your time horizon.

    A 4.5% decline is worth accepting when you have the horizon to attain the normal 10% return over longer periods of time. If you need the assets in 5 years you really cannot survive a 10% decline - or, maybe even a 5% drop. On the other hand, if you have 10 years till retirement it is wiser to accept short term 5% declines so that you can attain the average 10% increase. Amoeba, if you are nearing retirement you have already made your decision. If you have time till retirement than I would recommend buying some sticky pants.

    Anyway, the reason for being here at TSPTalk is to limit the 10% - 15% drops. If you limit those to 4% - 7% (which is possible with the support this site provides) you will be very well off in retirement.

    However, not accepting short term market losses means that you will get Social Security returns. If you continuously hang around a 3% - 5% return you will basically get a second Social Security check in retirement. That barely clears inflation. So, you end up with a better brand of Alpo for your retirement dining pleasure. Time is money. If you waste your time you waste opportunity and you waste your money.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  10.  
  11. #2322

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Big aaii move to 40% bulls reported this morning; highest in many months. I doubt it can go higher absent an event. But I'm not seeing the catalyst to go lower. Classic contrarian sell signal but these are not normal times....I see q1, q2 earnings to contract....no idea beyond that. I've been out for awhile....looking for a reason to go back into equities.


  12.  
  13. #2323

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    I am shorting this market as of last Friday....may add to that position today.

  14.  
  15. #2324

    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Hampton Roads, VA
    Posts
    3,729

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Shorting... meaning F fund? Or something other than TSP?
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

  16.  
  17. #2325

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Amoeba, the C-Fund is up 25.49% this year as is currently holding as #20 on the AutoTracker.

    Think of it this way, the market would have to drop 16% to get to normal.


    That is getting close to requiring a Bear Market to get back to an Average Growth Market.

    It will drop at some point, but why not let it drop 7% before bailing out? Why give up 21% of this years gain?. If you are sitting at a 4% YTD gain and the market dumps 8% in a single day than you are -4%. Had you been in the C Fund you would be at +17.5% - still and EXEPTIONAL year. Playing games with little moves is a dangerous game.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  18.  
  19. #2326

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Whipsaw View Post
    Shorting... meaning F fund? Or something other than TSP?
    Something other than TSP...it stopped out at a 2% loss on day 1 and hasn't reversed.

  20.  
  21. #2327

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    Something other than TSP...it stopped out at a 2% loss on day 1 and hasn't reversed.
    I'm confused, Amoeba...

    A short trade will not stop loss. It just loses and loses more. A short can fall to 0 leaving you responsible for the entire cost of the equity/ETF on call date.

    Did you set a trigger to buy the stock/ETF if it went away from you more than 2%? That is actually a pretty nice strat... Usually, shorts are very dangerous. Limiting the danger is a nice move. Maybe covered with an Option in the other direction?
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  22.  
  23. #2328

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    ETFs, Boghie. Anyhow....I am all in right now on TSP...not convinced of any substantial risks. This week is the traditional easiest free money seasonal play of year, except for last year, of course.

  24.  
Page 194 of 206 FirstFirst ... 94144184192193194195196204 ... LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
amoeba's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
amoeba's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
amoeba's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)
amoeba's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes