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Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

  1. #2305

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Amoeba,

    Stay away from those Dead Cats. They bounce so hard and so high they may hit you on the head before you can react. In all seriousness, you cannot catch today's upturn so why risk October - which is normally a suck month. The earliest you could get back into the market is for Wednesday morning. Too much can happen. Keep your powder dry till there is a market trend - not a bounce.

    This is why I rarely exit the market. The most conservative I am is where I am right now - only about 60% in the C/S/I. I rarely go below that, and only then when there is a misery trend or the market just seems hoppy and I've already made mucho moolah.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  3. #2306

    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Hampton Roads, VA
    Posts
    3,729

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    I'm thinking I should take on a similar strategy, especially with a solid trend. I miss too much in the way of gains waiting for an entry position.
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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  5. #2307

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    One of the wierdest reactions I can recall. A weak, partial deal, in return for nothing, giving up the long anticipated 5% tariff surcharge, produces a +1.7% SPY, which fades to 1.0% at the close. OK, fine. There's no trade war. Wait a minute, wasn't the tariff 25%, and isn't it still 25%. So nothing has changed, and China will continue to suffer. So will we. Economic #s should remain weak, and get weaker, unless there is real progress soon. Seeya in November.

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  7. #2308

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Great observation! Yes...Why the huge jump up? Tariff still in place (just the little increase not gonna happen). I still have a hard time believing an enforceable policy on Intellectual Property will occur. I am thinking this is just a move to appease and help farmers and those industries hurting most by trying to get something out of China and to de-escalate the tariff war, but also to get a little win out of it. I also think lots of the larger investing folks were out of office so ma and pa are excited. I haven't looked at volume yet.

    In any case, as soon as details come out, the big boys will figure this out and I think equities will probably drop like a rock. But, I have been wrong before... so we will see. In any case, I was happy to see the little bounce I got from my little 20% in I fund. It had a great jump---BUT it really gapped up big time.

    Best wishes to you and everyone!!!!!!!
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410

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  9. #2309

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie View Post
    Great observation! Yes...Why the huge jump up? Tariff still in place (just the little increase not gonna happen). I still have a hard time believing an enforceable policy on Intellectual Property will occur. I am thinking this is just a move to appease and help farmers and those industries hurting most by trying to get something out of China and to de-escalate the tariff war, but also to get a little win out of it. I also think lots of the larger investing folks were out of office so ma and pa are excited. I haven't looked at volume yet.

    In any case, as soon as details come out, the big boys will figure this out and I think equities will probably drop like a rock. But, I have been wrong before... so we will see. In any case, I was happy to see the little bounce I got from my little 20% in I fund. It had a great jump---BUT it really gapped up big time.

    Best wishes to you and everyone!!!!!!!
    DBA, You need to que up Witchy Woman!...China just said it wants to have "more talks" prior to the initial agreement being signed off on. Market futures aren't hitting as low as I thought they would though. DOW is only down about 80 as I type this.

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  11. #2310

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    aaii moved from bullish to dead heat neutral (ie, contrarian, 20 to 31% bullish). This is a big move but isn't informative as to what's next...real mixed bag here, trade talks fading, but Don is looking unbeatable in election, impeachers looking more like the desperate jokes they are.

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  13. #2311

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Unlike long or short, a neutral position cannot make money so it will not dominate for much longer. A few more days and the VIX should pick up as earnings misses accumulate. Right now, I believe there's some kind of premium priced in, a FED rate reduction, a impeachment giveup, a trade deal...not sure...but this is too rich. Very little upside. Something has to give. If it's a real trade deal, 5% up is a lock. I just don't think so.

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  15. #2312

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    $ moving around between misses and beats, but not leaving equities. Yet. I have an IFT to burn, but more inclined to wait for much better pricing than today. I think it's coming (i.e., 2700 or less). This may take some patience. Or, it may not happen at all.

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  17. #2313

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    aaii finally moving, bulls 36+%, highest since early August reading, preceding hard retreat . I am not a buyer. I still say markets to correct again this year and soon.


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  19. #2314

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Ummmm, yahhhh, another missed day of gains for me....markets appear to be anticipating something great because, imo, current events do not justify current index price. Someone else will need to come up with a convincing reason to buy in bcz I don't have one.

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  21. #2315

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    What current events??? The normal. Stuff like this happens all the time. Whatever the stuff is.

    Who cares if your shoes are glued together in China or Vietnam? Really, who cares.

    You guessed S&P500 at 2700 or less. It is 3000 or more. An absolutely catastrophic crash to 2700 is window jumping 9% decline. Oh, the humanity. But, instead the market has gone up a whopping 2%. Joy to the world. Hosannas all around!!!

    Who cares if the market meanders around like it has. Don't be all out - or you will miss the early growth. Don't be all in - September and October are known to be horrid market months. Be just right.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  23. #2316

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Rocky Mountain High
    Posts
    6,960

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Missed day of gain is much better than missed year(s) of gains.

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    Ummmm, yahhhh, another missed day of gains for me....markets appear to be anticipating something great because, imo, current events do not justify current index price. Someone else will need to come up with a convincing reason to buy in bcz I don't have one.
    Weatherweenie's Account Talk
    Teddy Roosevelt: Patriotism means to stand by the country. It does not mean to stand by the president or any other public official. Retired on November 30, 2023 with 30+ years of service.

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