Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

Anyone hoping for a dead cat bounce, consider that most like you will likely sell into it, and the volume isn't there (100mm SPY traded, when the recent max, last December or so, was 260+ mm), so I don't think it will happen, and I don't think this is any kind of bottom. I'll stick with my earlier (as in a month or so ago) prediction of somewhere in the neighborhood of SPY 2,600. That should clear out the suckers and weak hands.......maybe stimulate some production out of trade talks instead of just more talk. This further unwinding could take some time - - - a few more weeks of chop with the EMAs being recaptured and then refailing. This impeachment insanity shouldn't matter but won't help if it continues.

I wouldn't touch this market with a 10 foot pole.

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[QUOTE= IMO no one should trade on impeachment headlines which are headed, much sooner than most think, for the inevitable same result as that collusion investigation.[/QUOTE]

Good advice as trading on headlines is usually a fools game since whatever impact they have up or down almost always reverses in the short term!

No buying for me here...looks like a technical bounce so far, not more....trade deal or no, China is slowing, so is job growth here. Gonna sit this one out. May miss a 10% trade deal if it happens...or a similar drop if it doesn't.

Weak close today, 10/7/19 which, I believe, relates to failing optimisn in any near term trade progress. If I'm right and the markets woof a sudden couple percent gap down, we'll know by next Monday. Or Tuesday at the latest.

Interesting levels the indexes are hovering around this morning. Any change to your outlook? Or your timeline of Monday or Tuesday? I am just getting itchy after sitting on the pad for this long

Originally Posted by Mcqlives

Interesting levels the indexes are hovering around this morning. Any change to your outlook? Or your timeline of Monday or Tuesday? I am just getting itchy after sitting on the pad for this long

Thus far, it's following the usual pattern of measures, countermeasures, and testing of such by pre-announcements without details...trade talks currently breaking down...apparently headed towards additional (already announced) tariffs to kick in 10/15; looking more likely to happen. Seems like a deal is still partially baked into today's (lower) prices. Tough call, but at this moment, I'm sticking with sitting on my hands (and my last IFT) till at least Monday.

Bloomberg fake trade news duped many, but not me....I sold nonTSP equity positions at today's intraday peak in expectation of a sharp gap down between now and 10/15. Later.

I'm not a believer in this bounce, although the ultra low bull reading, 20%,on today's aaii can't be ignored..such a contrarian # typically reverses hard, which would mean an even larger bounce on top of the last 2 days. But I think not. I say 10/15 tariffs kick in as scheduled. Or Don is a wimp. Or China makes a real deal. Unlikely. Half ashed deals won't fool traders.

Originally Posted by amoeba

I'm not a believer in this bounce, although the ultra low bull reading, 20%,on today's aaii can't be ignored..such a contrarian # typically reverses hard, which would mean an even larger bounce on top of the last 2 days. But I think not. I say 10/15 tariffs kick in as scheduled. Or Don is a wimp. Or China makes a real deal. Unlikely. Half ashed deals won't fool traders.

May just take this bounce and run today. Though if everything falls through the cracks I may be back to the G in the red. On the flip side, that has me hesitating, is a potential run up into holiday marketing, even with the constricting growth potential.

What to do, what to do.

Originally Posted by amoeba

I'm not a believer in this bounce, although the ultra low bull reading, 20%,on today's aaii can't be ignored..such a contrarian # typically reverses hard, which would mean an even larger bounce on top of the last 2 days. But I think not. I say 10/15 tariffs kick in as scheduled. Or Don is a wimp. Or China makes a real deal. Unlikely. Half ashed deals won't fool traders.

May just take this bounce and run today. Though if everything falls through the cracks I may be back to the G in the red. On the flip side, that has me hesitating, is a potential run up into holiday marketing, even with the constricting growth potential.

What to do, what to do.