Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

I just pared back to 70% equities COB....I know it feels all good, but.....

Boghie...I can't pull up the 2000-2002 statements on the TSP site and don't have access to those files right now. I didn't have much money in the TSP back then and don't recall actively trading the account. I do remember being thankful I was buying in low. As for 2008, I think we all took it in the shorts to some extent, me more than you...I took a 20.26% loss that year (I think I ate the same 2 days you did for 16% too). That is the year I became much less aggressive in my trading. In 2011 I pulled 11.87% and last year I pulled 11.53 (it would have been much nicer but I got cut bad with the santa rally fail. The years in between (2012 through 2017) averaged about 9% so you are right, not the 1% a month...but plenty to live on in retirement. And even if I don't make that amount, for me, a 3.02% draw down, after taxes, would make my take home the same as it is today so anything in excess of that is pure profit in my eyes.

I'm a simple guy and don't need a bunch of toys to enjoy life so those are not necessities. And another huge portion of my overall portfolio is my house, which will be paid off in early 2021. Not having that mortgage payment increases my net expendable monthly money by a significant margin. You are right with my numbers being a risky assumption and suggesting using less aggressive growth numbers. I should have clarified more so as to not present potentially misleading information to people reading my post. I was just shooting numbers that would support a +1% a month strategy and explaining my "hoped for/best case scenario" goal. Believe me when I say that I am not going to risk my financial safety net and rely on those 12% figures to survive.

As for a system, I'm the last person to claim to have one. I just play my moves as I see them and rely on you, and others on here with more trading experience, to influence what I am seeing in the markets. The only thing I do regularly, which I'm sure others do something similar, is charting with the C, S, 50MA and DJT. I then work in Bollingers, and run 5 day to 3 month (very rarely longer than that) charts and compare everything to Bquats (much cleaner and nicer than mine) charts.

Happy 4th everyone!!!

Hi Boghie, What method or indicators do you primarily use to determine your entries and exits?? You do very well so its obviously working! Many of us could use some helpful tips...especially me!! A few days ago you said the trend is your friend, but I also assume you were not meaning that folks should buy and hold. Any tips or secrets you can part with would be very appreciated! Seriously....

I trimmed yesterday to 70% equities...today (7/5) to 55%....looks like I may take a bit more of a haircut in I fund, but I had the least in that and with FV adjustments, who knows? I've already met my minimum goal for July...and on track for 1%/month, so no sense over risking.

I plan to reduce further Monday, to not more than 40% equities...this latest move up followed what I consider incorrect speculation on rate cuts which will be reversed between now and the next BOL report. I expect another +200K number...and a possible rate increase, NOT a decrease, this year. And a mild recession in early 2020, but that will depend on a lack of a trade deal and that scenario may change.

I averaged down to 35, 15, then 0% equities as of COB today, 7/9, and expect an adverse reaction to Powell's upcoming comments. Seeya next month. My 1% gain is locked in for July.

Pie in sky bet yesterday on SOXL, sold too early today for a mere 6.25% one day gain, could have been more. This leveraged, semi ETF, has flown 50% in a month+, and can go either way fast. Nearing the mid 2018 all time high. Be careful.

Well, I decided to buy SVXY right here at 57.70...just feels like the intraday low has been put in....anyone else feel lucky?

I do, increased to 50 C 50 S

I think trend is up again...but am still hesitant to act on it. I almost went in yesterday but missed the cut-off. Then I was going to buy in this morning and talked myself out of buying in on an up day. To me this seems to be pricing in of an anticipated .25 rate cut next week along with good earnings numbers and GDP report. If there wasn't so much hype about an anticipated cut I may have gotten in. Fed and Powell statement may cause a give back at end of meeting next Wednesday if there is anything the markets can interpret negatively. Sucks that statement will come out on last day of the month. After that the news cycle will turn back to China deal.

Have a great weekend!

Originally Posted by amoeba

Pie in sky bet yesterday on SOXL, sold too early today for a mere 6.25% one day gain, could have been more. This leveraged, semi ETF, has flown 50% in a month+, and can go either way fast. Nearing the mid 2018 all time high. Be careful.

That was on 7/24, what a difference 10 calendar days makes, SOXL got socked for something like 30% ever since. I peed away 4% on less bad trades...about 50% invested, the rest cash, in my Roth. Been in G for TSP since early July. Ranked 48 in the tracker for this quarter returns. Room for improvement in year to date return, ranked in the 800s.