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Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

  1. #2245

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    So much fear out there...

    Maybe Nike will have to glue their shoes together in Vietnam rather than China. Oh, the humanity.

    The beauty of capitalism is Nike will glue their shoes together in Mozambique quicker than you can bounce a dead cat. Be in this market. It just might be a 30%er. You don't have to be 'All In' like some drunk stumblin' up Wall Street, but you also don't have to be 'All Out' like some drunk stumblin' down Wall Street.

    Another half year like the first horrifying six months and I might start thinking about taking the 72(T) and retiring. Oh, the humanity. Might have to hang through next year to afford my personal chef though. That would be nice. A Winnebago Driver, a yacht captain, and a personal chef. Nice.

    Happy Hunting...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  3. #2246

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    In equities 100%...looking for about a week of gains associated with low holiday volume, froth follow through on a nonevent G20, and a better jobs report..revision upward of last month's horrible number would be nice too. Hoping to exit North of 1% for the week, and then miss a few down days before going back in. Sound good? I think so.

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  5. #2247

    Join Date
    Jun 2014
    Location
    Virginia
    Posts
    680

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Sounds good!

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  7. #2248

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    I'm out COB today...a quick breather....July 2 seasonally weaker than 7/1 or 7/3. 100%G, but may go back in soon.

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  9. #2249

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    I considered it as well for a quick in and out...but got busy at work so missed the cut-off. Hope it holds but volatility plummeted and transports spiked....some give back is to be expected soon I think.

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  11. #2250

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    I'm out COB today...a quick breather....July 2 seasonally weaker than 7/1 or 7/3. 100%G, but may go back in soon.
    Going to burn one of two valuable IFTs on day one of the month - to lock in a one point gain? You will only have one left for July...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!


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  13. #2251

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    Going to burn one of two valuable IFTs on day one of the month - to lock in a one point gain? You will only have one left for July...
    1% gain already, including last 2 days of June...but...now I can at least miss the down day tomorrow. All time high with midday reversal as good an exit as any....even if it is early in month.

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  15. #2252

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    1% gain already, including last 2 days of June...but...now I can at least miss the down day tomorrow. All time high with midday reversal as good an exit as any....even if it is early in month.
    Just as I thought, so now: I am going back in equities today, blow that second IFT on a sure thing pre-Holiday, light volume up day tomorrow. Not sure if I will cash out then (July 3) or July 5, where a surprise report and revision to last month will blow the top off of 3,000. Where it goes from there is anyone's guess. But I'll be sitting in G fund, again.

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  17. #2253

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    3,416

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    1% gain already, including last 2 days of June...but...now I can at least miss the down day tomorrow. All time high with midday reversal as good an exit as any....even if it is early in month.
    Why try to time such dinky moves. Really, who cares about 1% moves one way or another.
    Being in the market during a bull run absolutely dwarfs the affect of avoiding a 0.23% 'crash' - or even Great Depression level 1.23% wealth destruction

    Having an annual average return of 3% is going to kill your retirement. But, whatever allows you to sleep better is the right thing. All that means is you will have to work longer.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  19. #2254

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Everyone is different in their retirement plans. I would like to make as much money as possible and currently tend to ride the trends up a little longer than a day or two...but if I can clear 12% a year I am happy, so I can see why moves like that are worthwhile.

    For example....I'm coming up on retiring next year and my calculations are based on a 12% profit average each year starting with 0% draw down for 7 years (working at a retirement job to off set difference in income), followed by 4% a year for 5 years (probably not work but still will have expenses to make a draw down necessary) then 6% draw down after that, travel as I want, spoil any grand kids and never work another day while still increasing balance. Reason to build balance into retirement is simple...besides all the normal trips/toys/house/boat/car/etc I will think about buying...Retirement centers, especially with medical services, cost at least $150 a day. You never want your balance to shrink to a point where you can't pay that for yourself and your SO.

    Here are the made up numbers (matched to my draw down/profit % goals) to support a reason to shoot for the 1% a month average.

    Starting balance: $500,000
    Balance after first 7 years: Appx. $1,100,000

    4% draw down a year on that is $36,000 (appx net) a year. Still making the 12% gain so balance continues to climb...
    Balance after next 5 years: Appx. $1,580,000

    Even if I then drew down 12% (appx $131,000 net) on an occasional year (and I don't know why I would do that), the balance is enough to have my wife and I both in an assisted living residence for 15 to 20 years without even considering selling property or other investments. If inflation causes significantly higher prices then I still have that for padding.
    Last edited by Mcqlives; 07-02-2019 at 03:39 PM. Reason: typos

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  21. #2255

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    What's the big deal? I made only 50 IFTs last year and cleared 0.13%, minus 10% in the last 2 months of 2018. Awesome!

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  23. #2256

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    But only because of the thread of this conversation. I, fortunately, sat out for most of last years loses but I feel your pain!
    Last edited by Mcqlives; 07-02-2019 at 10:17 PM. Reason: comment

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