Market bounce doesn't make sense...feels like a suckers rally. Not buying it at all. BOL report tomorrow.
An astonishing 4th consecutive weak of aaii bulls in the 20s, and more astonishing 3% technical bounce in SPY.
Market bounce doesn't make sense...feels like a suckers rally. Not buying it at all. BOL report tomorrow.
I don’t buy this....doesn't make sense, there must be something else, a rate cut baked in (which I highly doubt, especially if a consequence of tariff effects), some factor explaining this nonsensical bounce.
think i might wait till monday
And I aint buying at all this week. Bounce doesn't compute. I bought short funds today...this will either pay off or it won't.
Sideways action; I still have a large current bet on an inverse ETF, unfortunately, not SOXS at the moment....all sorts of bee ess from the "experts" out there thinking this or that on interest rates, on trade deals....and I believe they are all wrong. Or maybe I am. In any case, I didn't time that last bounce...just really thought it would cut through 2,700 and drop more like the last 4-5 times (see Tom's chart today), but that didn't happen. Plus I had almost no chance last month, feeling lucky to get away with a fractional loss. This is very frustrating. As was losing 10% in the last 6 weeks of last year.
There isn't any indication from the FED that the FED would cut interest rates; notwithstanding the jabber from everywhere else, especially the White House. It would take another 2 job reports like the last one or worse to make that a possibility. Maybe in a year. But not now. Not any time soon. Regardless, stocks are worth what other people pay for them (primarily sovereign wealth funds, and other big boyz), not what I think they should be.
Weatherweenie's Account Talk
Teddy Roosevelt: Patriotism means to stand by the country. It does not mean to stand by the president or any other public official. Retired on November 30, 2023 with 30+ years of service.
FED doesn't react to claims data. Besides, unemployment is too low anyhow. No rate change for the rest of this year. Believe it. Know it. Live it. Why? I said so.
Closing in on a half dozen aaii bear readings in the 20s. This market is at least 10% overpriced. Some sectors, like gold, going to the moon. But the large caps are building. I see this ending badly. That said, there is another holiday coming up, so may as well keep my finger on the button to try to catch a low volume up day...may wait for the jobs report.
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