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Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

  1. #1993

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    Raleigh, NC
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    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Greece...

    I would not sweat it too much. However, now that I look at it, 45% of your holdings being affected by the emotional GREXIT seems kinda high. How does using the VIX support purchasing EFA?
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  3. #1994

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Carnage continues:

    Zero'd out for the year and then some, in negatory for the year. ^VIX tends to correlate generally (inversely) with US markets on which it is based; which are being dragged down by Europe (not the other way round, currently) - it isn't always that way (earlier this year, for example).

    I'm pretty bummed at the moment. I'd like to have a day without a 0.5-1% or more negative return soon. I have had insane thoughts recently of going into the bond fund.

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  5. #1995

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    And of course: I rotated out of the I-fund the day before it returns 2%; so I'm still down for the month; I'll need a little more boost to creep back even with the G-fund for this month. I still have everything on the table (all in C and S), however.

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  7. #1996

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Made a hash out of my IFTs this month; felt like I was off-timing all along; feel lucky to pull even with the G-fund; and think Tom's commentary is a possibility (another short-term dip coming). If all settles down, I'll wade back in before the next big holiday weekend (July 1 or 2), and see if I can get some easy money on light volume. That said, the market will probably go up 5% before then as my luck would have it.

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  9. #1997

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    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    You've done alright this month.

    Your problem is that you have blown both IFTs as of June 9th and left nothing in equities. What if you are wrong and equities go up 2%. A 50% holding in equities would probably give you 1+% growth for June. If it dumped 10% your account would be at -2% to -3% when the other 50% is factored in. You could recover that in a normal correction correction. Now if you are wrong you will gain nothing.

    Personally, my crystal ball and my guessing and my picking is never perfect so I don't play the swinger game. Hurt me a bit last year, but has helped my account enormously over time...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  11. #1998

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    You've done alright this month.

    Your problem is that you have blown both IFTs as of June 9th and left nothing in equities. What if you are wrong and equities go up 2%. A 50% holding in equities would probably give you 1+% growth for June. If it dumped 10% your account would be at -2% to -3% when the other 50% is factored in. You could recover that in a normal correction correction. Now if you are wrong you will gain nothing.

    Personally, my crystal ball and my guessing and my picking is never perfect so I don't play the swinger game. Hurt me a bit last year, but has helped my account enormously over time...
    I thought about that (the market going up), and I my feeling is this is a narrow trading range in both price, volume and volatility; and with volatility low; I think there is more downside than upside risk, the upside being 1% at most. I feel OK about it. I was only a few days off of really scoring. As it is, I hardly gained enough for bus fare.


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  13. #1999

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    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    I thought about that (the market going up), and I my feeling is this is a narrow trading range in both price, volume and volatility; and with volatility low; I think there is more downside than upside risk, the upside being 1% at most. I feel OK about it. I was only a few days off of really scoring. As it is, I hardly gained enough for bus fare.
    I agree. I think equities will do nothing or slow burn down a little bit. That is why I have a very conservative allocation based on my personal risk factor. Why be 75%+ in a market likely doing nothing, but with a risk of correcting...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  15. #2000

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    24,244

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    And please don't forget to tithe the 700 club.

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  17. #2001

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Birchtree View Post
    And please don't forget to tithe the 700 club.
    Better than the 900 club; in any case - volume picked up for a Friday and we have had several moderate volume blips this week (+100 million in the SPY); but the activity really needs to continue and increase to ~150-200 million in order for it to signal any kind of "washout". There could be some angst towards the end of the month depending on how Greece pans out. Might have to wait it out past the July 4 holiday week and the next week as well. I'm not getting any instinct right now.

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  19. #2002

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    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Hang in there amoeba. And forget that "crazy talk" about jumping into bonds...

    I'm like you....in a wait and see mode. I have serious doubts about the market making 5% before July 1st unless (1) the Chinese do something elaborate (2) the Greeks find Midas's Gold (3) The Fed finds Midas's Gold, or someone creates "cold fusion". I thinks it's time to relax and have a few pre-holiday brewskis.

    Attachment 34045

    All the best in your investing.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  21. #2003

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    Better than the 900 club; in any case - volume picked up for a Friday and we have had several moderate volume blips this week (+100 million in the SPY); but the activity really needs to continue and increase to ~150-200 million in order for it to signal any kind of "washout". There could be some angst towards the end of the month depending on how Greece pans out. Might have to wait it out past the July 4 holiday week and the next week as well. I'm not getting any instinct right now.
    Maybe my instincts are better than I thought (quote from 2 wks ago).......whether this market craters some more or shoots to the moon remains to be seen.

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  23. #2004

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    I say mini-moon shot; something on the order of 2,090-2,100 in the SPY by COB tomorrow. Put my TSP(80% of it) where my mouth is on that prediction. May throw the rest of the chips in tomorrow - don't we have a jobs report coming up? Could be interesting.

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