Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

you should be telling me about the bailout plan; mine is a bounce plan; you already posted on my thread that you planned to bail in march and april; and started to;

This nonsense in Saudi will pass, everybody will hug and kiss, Bammy will throw some more money around and all will be hunky dory before ya know it. Maybe cash for clunky houses you can't sell.

What's the worst that can happen? The market drops 15% in a week because some shadow housing inventory report comes out showing that most financial institutions are underwater just like the houses they foreclosed on?

Naawwww. Bammy will not allow that to happen. As long as there's green ink and paper, and some other country to accept it.

I'm sticking to my monday bail; on a minimum 3%+ bounce. The market will drop like a lead balloon before the end of the month, and then I'm back in. Sorry if I'm being so conservative......

Not sure what is the deal with friday's action:

I'm only guessing that there's some unwarranted nervousness still about libya and (though not priced in friday) this tsunami effect on anticipated japanese demand destruction (esp. usa export to them); if the nuclear reactor situation is stable out there - the word needs to get out on that too.

I did not enter a bail yet. Futures are very flat at the moment.....

I haven't looked at the volumes on friday's trade for evidence of institutional movements....

Alll in all - a lackluster day - needs some confirmation....not much in terms of advance IFT's to tell what it's doing to the sentiment of the members here yet. Like me - I guess it's a wait and see.

Tom needs to update those rankings, too....that -2% from thursday is burning a hole in my computer screen.

Originally Posted by amoeba

Tom needs to update those rankings, too....that -2% from thursday is burning a hole in my computer screen.

Dont get your cilia bent outta shape. He has.

All eyes on 1,296.....it held....but barely. In fact, the reason I didn't bail today is because I didn't have my clocks reset to daylight savings. Fortunately, there was enough late interest to close even with the 50 EMA.

In my last post, I warned about the nuclear caveat - - - - and was completely fooled by friday's modest reaction, altho that could have been a mix of bad news and good (retail sales meets) that just looked flat.

Today was not flat. I thought the dust would settle, and it has not. I am not hopeful. Nothing has panned out. I only hope they can keep that reactor core stable for another day while I enter my IFT. Worst case scenerio, is the thing is going to blow, Tokyo will evacuate, and the world's 3rd largest economy goes down the tubes. They would have told us if this was good news already. This, the reactor melting down, I now believe is a real possibility, AND, the market is being held up like a house of cards on false hopes that everything is OK.

The lack of good news - specifically on the reactor core stability - is bad news in itself.

Originally Posted by amoeba

All eyes on 1,296.....it held....but barely. Worst case scenerio, is the thing is going to blow, Tokyo will evacuate, and the world's 3rd largest economy goes down the tubes. They would have told us if this was good news already. This, the reactor melting down, I now believe is a real possibility, AND, the market is being held up like a house of cards on false hopes that everything is OK.

The lack of good news - specifically on the reactor core stability - is bad news in itself.

Meltdown isnt going to effect Tokyo - it makes the clean-up much harder and way more expensive. Not a good thing, but I dont see that factoring in much in the markets unless it just because people dont really understand it and are driven by fear.

Fear is going to make some of us richer and some poorer it depends on if you let fear rule you, or you master it. In the long run the disaster is most likely to bring Japan into a new era of prosperity rebuilding the damaged areas. So look up, O' single-celled friend of mine!

Originally Posted by FAB1

Meltdown isnt going to effect Tokyo - it makes the clean-up much harder and way more expensive. Not a good thing, but I dont see that factoring in much in the markets unless it just because people dont really understand it and are driven by fear.

Fear is going to make some of us richer and some poorer it depends on if you let fear rule you, or you master it. In the long run the disaster is most likely to bring Japan into a new era of prosperity rebuilding the damaged areas. So look up, O' single-celled friend of mine!

Sorry Fab1: this isn't about emotion anymore; this isn't a "threat anymore"; just to be clear - since I have worked at Savannah River Plant and have some familiarity with this sort of thing; I know now there is significant radiation; it is an uncontrolled situation; and it is near a population center. As far as clean-up; for practical purposes there is no such thing for these type of potential radionuclide products and their half-lives; and - significantly - most of the relevant particulars are being with-held, and some lies are being thrown out there by the IAEA - which are, in my opinion, too bass-ackwards to think that someone mis-spoke.

It's intentional, to calm the markets. I am not fooled. There is no "not so bad", here. There is only "bad" and "worse". The markets have held up fairly well all things considered. A clear sell.

How many miles is the reactor from Tokyo? I never said there wasnt going to be a radiation problem, but you said its going to effect Tokyo and I dont see that happening. What I said about the clean up is true and while it is a dangerous situation it is not going to effect a very large area.

I dont see the global market reacting negatively to this one thing for very long, because this is also about many other types of loss that have nothing to do with the damaged reactors and how a country that is a major economic player is in a crippled condition.

We will get thru this soon enough because there is always money to make.

It all depends on the wind direction and velocity, Rain would be good, currently winds are coming from the NW to NNW 15 to 17 mph which I think should be blowing the crap out to sea.
http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/47671.html

Panic grips Tokyo as radiation levels rise

TOKYO — Panic swept Tokyo on Tuesday as radiation levels surged in the city, causing some to leave the capital and others to stock up on food and supplies.

Several embassies advised staff and citizens to leave affected areas, tourists cut short vacations and multinational companies either urged staff to leave or said they were considering plans to move outside Tokyo. Officials in Tokyo — 150 miles to the south of the plant — said radiation in the capital was 10 times normal

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42083890...fic/?gt1=43001

Originally Posted by JTH

Friend, I see you're down about 12 points off your entry. Should 1295 not hold, be prepared to absorb another 20 down to 1275.

No thanks. Clock change screwed me yesterday, caught in a downdraft. I'm out at 1,281. Still have an IFT to mess with. Technicals have to improve before I do that. This hurtz.

Ouch!!!!

Originally Posted by FAB1

How many miles is the reactor from Tokyo? I never said there wasnt going to be a radiation problem, but you said its going to effect Tokyo and I dont see that happening. What I said about the clean up is true and while it is a dangerous situation it is not going to effect a very large area.

I dont see the global market reacting negatively to this one thing for very long, because this is also about many other types of loss that have nothing to do with the damaged reactors and how a country that is a major economic player is in a crippled condition.

We will get thru this soon enough because there is always money to make.

Read my post again. I didn't say "it's going to affect Tokyo"; you said I said that. I said there's significant radiation; these things can, and have, gotten out of control and, depending on how it plays out, could have an enormous effect on the whole country. That's how much and how wide radioactive fallout goes. One thing it won't have, is a small or temporary, or insignificant, effect. Japan's economy is toast for at least 6 months at the minimum; we just don't know how burnt it is.

And, there's no such thing a "clean-up"; You saying we'll get thru it, sounds like some sort of misplaced optimism; maybe we will maybe not, but it is an uncontrolled situation and emotions aren't going to determine the outcome of it.

I'm glad there's dip buyers like you that kept the losses manageable so far. Look out below.