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Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

  1. #601

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
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    Gainesville, Florida, USA
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    24,244

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    "The setup is so bearish that I expect to see another 'flash crash' of even greater magnitude on Tuesday or Wednesday."

    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article19908.html

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  3. #602

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    .04% daily G fund would be OK.

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  5. #603

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by JimmyJoe View Post
    .04% daily G fund would be OK.
    No doubt, that amount would keep me in the G fund.
    "I'm your Huckleberry"


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  7. #604

    Default more damage ahead

    Well:

    I am thinking there is no rush to get back in this wk. All of the dips in the last 5 years, whether they have been corrections, bull-bear transitions, or otherwise, have witnessed the 20 DMA at least touching if not briefly (3-7 sessions) staying below the 200 DMA; this market is at 1-2 wks away from doing that. Right now, the 20 DMA in the SPY is ~1,120. Wouldn't make sense to bounce now - especially with 1,100 looking like a hard ceiling.

    IOW, more damage ahead.

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  9. #605

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Nice little sucker's rally today - in advance of the ADP and jobs report:

    Might wanna look at the last 3-4 such incidences of this (selloff on a "good" report); in any case, I'm hoping that the market actually does close over 1,100 for a day, because that will cause the deep selloff below 1,050. In any case, this month, I'm going to rely on the shorter term DMA's (20 or less) and their direction. Right now, the market is on it's 9th day below the 20 DMA. Nice tight downward spiral.......Can't wait for that sub 1,000 hysteria. Nice selling opportunity this week, and a buying opportunity later in the month.....knock yourself out.

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  11. #606

    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Vancouver, USA
    Posts
    1,648

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    yea... sucker rally is right, just like in '38

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    Nice little sucker's rally today - in advance of the ADP and jobs report:

    Might wanna look at the last 3-4 such incidences of this (selloff on a "good" report); in any case, I'm hoping that the market actually does close over 1,100 for a day, because that will cause the deep selloff below 1,050. In any case, this month, I'm going to rely on the shorter term DMA's (20 or less) and their direction. Right now, the market is on it's 9th day below the 20 DMA. Nice tight downward spiral.......Can't wait for that sub 1,000 hysteria. Nice selling opportunity this week, and a buying opportunity later in the month.....knock yourself out.

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  13. #607

    Default Re: and 1 more thing: you will have time to reinvest bcz...

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    And one more thing:

    You will have time to reinvest because, historically on these deep dip corrections (if that's what this is); just to clarify the signal on the 20 DMA, it not only inflexes, but does so after it crosses below the 200 DMA; it did this 3X in 2005-2007; during that bull.

    In this case, the 200 DMA is roughly coincident with the calender year low back in late Jan-Feb, whenever that was; I'm thinking - if this remains a bull, it will be a relatively clear, bottoming signal on the order of a week or so flopping under the 200 DMA before moving up.

    If it doesn't, and you are 100% G like me, then its either a market collapse that you will be thankful to avoid, or such a sharp V the likes of which hasn't happened historically - that there would be no way to catch it other than sheer luck -- - - - which most of this market timing is anyway...
    Remember the above post? Well - we're almost there......the next 5 trading sessions will be KEY!!!!!! Especially this coming friday, which if the recent trend continues would be what, the 6th down friday in a row? There are some very important resistance levels forming in the SPY - - - 1,110 at the top (which everyone has been selling out of recently - - - and 1,065 - 1,070 - - - which has resulted in buying the following 1-2 sessions. Alot of the decline since 4/23/10 has come on smaller volume. But last friday there was good volume in SPY, and most of it was down, just minimal buying interest.

    What the heck are we in for monday-tuesday? I am guessing the most optimistic is a decline of 2% or less; and then a return to the 1,070 - 1,100 range; and then even more damage.

    The less optimistic is that there is a huge selloff on one of the two days. Neither of these scenarios has the risk/reward for me to use an IFT, unless it is to wade into F-fund at the false mid-week peak of the C-fund.

    BTW, I have just cracked the top 80 ranks in our autotracker as of COB 6/4/10:

    #78

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  15. #608

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Talking Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Whoa there Amoeba...

    I am in the Top 200

    #200

    Watch out for me...

    I may hurt you as I fall
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  17. #609

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Gainesville, Florida, USA
    Posts
    24,244

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    #78 may only be a fleeting moment in time - your lesson is coming so wait for it. You must admit you are having fun with our banter - that's the way it should be. Sometimes we make money and sometimes we play give back - it's all a necessary part of investing even for fiduciary retirement.

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  19. #610

    Default gee - I'm right again - now what's the followthru

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    Remember the above post?
    I am guessing the most optimistic is a decline of 2% or less; and then a return to the 1,070 - 1,100 range; and then even more damage.

    The less optimistic is that there is a huge selloff on one of the two days. Neither of these scenarios has the risk/reward for me to use an IFT, unless it is to wade into F-fund at the false mid-week peak of the C-fund.

    the above was last friday's post on what today (6/7/10) would be - - - which was the more optimistic result; so I'm expecting a brief bounce (selling opportunity) in mid-week, then "another friday". someone else can play this game, if anything, I look only towards an opportunity to pick up some cheap F-fund before the total collapse into the 900's by the end of the month. Asta - - - baby!!

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  21. #611

    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Manassas, Virginia
    Posts
    3,498

    Default Re: gee - I'm right again - now what's the followthru

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    the above was last friday's post on what today (6/7/10) would be - - - which was the more optimistic result; so I'm expecting a brief bounce (selling opportunity) in mid-week, then "another friday". someone else can play this game, if anything, I look only towards an opportunity to pick up some cheap F-fund before the total collapse into the 900's by the end of the month. Asta - - - baby!!
    Good Job amoeba

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  23. #612

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
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    Gainesville, Florida, USA
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    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    amoeba,

    I have it on fairly good authority that the 'Cooler' is looking for you. Don't befriend any strangers that are kind to you and stay away from public places. Some around these parts are familiar with the 'Cooler'.


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