Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

Originally Posted by amoeba

Guess what? The S&P broke its 50 dma today; first time sense early september (the 50 dma was about 1270 or so back then). And the I-fund just strung 6 days of gains together. Hold, fold, or buy more, that is the question......and I'm having second thoughts about the auto bailout happening at all.....just have the gut feeling that I'm not being told the whole truth here. I may hold off to see the opening tomorrow; thinking about raising my stakes in both I and especially F.

well, I think the buying has gotten a little overheated - and thinking there is some cashing in today; so I bailed on I-fund, and raised my stake in F; my thinking is there will be rotation into bonds - which has kicked in big time today.

If bond fund goes up another % by end of week; I will get the flip out of that too.

And hey, what is up with me dropping down to #17 on the tracker - wonder if they give prizes to people with the biggest monthly swing; noticed one of the participants who passed me, BigBully, is north of 20% in the last 3+ weeks. Interesting times. YeeHaw.

Originally Posted by amoeba

well, I think the buying has gotten a little overheated - and thinking there is some cashing in today; so I bailed on I-fund, and raised my stake in F; my thinking is there will be rotation into bonds - which has kicked in big time today.

If bond fund goes up another % by end of week; I will get the flip out of that too.

And hey, what is up with me dropping down to #17 on the tracker - wonder if they give prizes to people with the biggest monthly swing; noticed one of the participants who passed me, BigBully, is north of 20% in the last 3+ weeks. Interesting times. YeeHaw.

How about a Prize, Say $100.00 to the top 5 for the year.

What do you think Tom....

Amoeba - looks like you made the right move into F. It's looking good and chugging along! I may have to join in! lol

sumbeech:

Missed the cutoff by 4 minutes yesterday; and there it goes again; all the equity funds tank like a lead duck. Oh well, looks like my move to F may still pay off. Gotta know when to fold, exactly, these days.

Incidentally, everyone - - - if you want to see a better plot of the rocket-like takeoff of the F-fund, plot the VBMFX for the last 6 months (better track of the fund price than AGG). It's a bit strange that we don't put more into F, me included.

I don't know how much longer it will continue; fund prices are near a 2-year high; cash is not the place to put money; treasuries yield too low; and equities are the worst - - - that leaves bonds - - - which have been bid up fast and hard in the last 4-6 weeks.

If I can get 1-2% more in the next couple days, I will go back to G.

See ya.

Thanks for the VBMFX link, I'll try it out and see how it works.

hmmmm: anyone else besides me notice that "TLT" shows up as the F fund in some views of this website; and "AGG" in another?

well - better not believe both - since they are going in opposite directions today - methinks the "TLT", is way the heck off of our F-fund;

In any case, I'm inclined to stay put (80G/20F) for at least the rest of the week, which I am taking off - and probably won't look at the market for that reason.

Expect very light trading this week - mostly sideways - then off a cliff in early January as the lousy retail sales numbers become more widely known.

I may be putting more into F during the new year; have a happy one

Barely broke even on my 12/18 IFT into 20% F yesterday, so pulled back to 10%, the rest dry powder (90% G):

This 2-day rally will be destroyed next week when everybody gets back in; who in their right mind wouldn't cash in on a S&P close above 900 when the consumer sentiment is at a 30 year low?

The next 3-6 weeks should be interesting. I personally am expecting a free fall in the neighborhood of 5-10% in the next week, under 800 in the S&P. Others say it will go to 1,100.

It was interesting to hear the CEO of TrimTabs this morning, who provided his analysis of the so-called "money on the sidelines"; his conclusion was that there is none - that money was spent, alot to cover debts. Accordingly, there are no savings to support a rally, no lending to support consumption, and no rally to expect.

Expect F-fund to lead the way, all the way, through 2009. I made some bone-head maneuvers, not sticking to my guns (F-fund) in mid 2008 that limited my gains, trying to catch a bottom in C,S, or I. Didn't work. I guess I'm not one of the chosen few; but hey, anything in the black ain't bad.

Wait till next year.............Amoeba out.

The same dollar you had last year buys you twice as much S&P 500 as it did a year ago. The rush to declare the future bleak has obscured the fact that no one knows the outcome of an unprecedented event. Since things came to a halt more quickly than ever before, they could also restart more quickly than ever before. Be in to win. Snort.

Birch, ain't that the truth.

Originally Posted by Birchtree

The same dollar you had last year buys you twice as much S&P 500 as it did a year ago. The rush to declare the future bleak has obscured the fact that no one knows the outcome of an unprecedented event. Since things came to a halt more quickly than ever before, they could also restart more quickly than ever before. Be in to win. Snort.

True only if you have dollars to invest, which is because my TSP was 80-90% G fund since ~June-July of last year; if you left your TSP in C-fund then you can't buy anymore shares, because it dropped 40% in value.

Friday's employment report should be interesting; if memory serves - there was a jaw-dropping report recent - way worse than expectation, and the market did what? Bought the bad news!!!! (report is released early in day). Will be interesting to see if there are consecutive months of downward revisions to the last report.

Home values continue to decline, employment continues to rise, consumption falling off a cliff, holiday bookings down, twice the foreclosures this year....I'm sure Birchtree will tell me why the market is going to go up this year.....make my day.

The market is going to go up this year because no one expects it to go up. I just bought myself 75 C fund shares at $10.76. That's what payroll contributions are for - like clock work every two weeks. My last purchase of the C fund was at $10.21, then $10.09, and then again at $9.20, then $10.70, $10.06, $10.32, $13.86. It'll be excellent to collect a few $11.00 and $12.00 prices - one of the reasons I still go to work. I always say that dollar cost averaging is the redeemer of many a portfolio mistake. It's been great locking in those $10.00 C fund prices.