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Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

  1. #13

    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    West of Atlanta
    Posts
    2,580

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    I was thinkin' stiletto pumps...

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  3. #14

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    With two ITF's, I will use my second to rebalance tomorrow (85% G, 8% I, 7% F), and see if the dead cat will bounce again.
    85% G - sounds like a smart move.

    It's hard to avoid the "dead cat bounce" mentality when over the years it's been fairly predictable and dependable.

    Main problem is the 2 ITFs (as you noted). Most likely senario at this point looks like you may get a 1 day bounce - before the downward acceleration kicks in.

    I'm floored things are going down faster; wondering

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  5. #15

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Steadygain View Post
    85% G - sounds like a smart move.

    It's hard to avoid the "dead cat bounce" mentality when over the years it's been fairly predictable and dependable.

    Main problem is the 2 ITFs (as you noted). Most likely senario at this point looks like you may get a 1 day bounce - before the downward acceleration kicks in.

    I'm floored things are going down faster; wondering

    Steadygain's crystal ball prompted me to take some quick gains last friday on the I fund; now I'm pared down to 3% I, 3% F, and 94% good old G.

    As far as the rest of this month is concerned; I'll use it as practice....see if I can pick some exit point on the remainder of I and F and pull out a gain, or at least minimize the loss. See you all in October.....after the election.

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  7. #16

    Default relevance and irrelevance (tracey ray)

    Relevance:

    pick your favorite bad sign for stocks in the next 6-9 months

    a) gold inflows
    b) housing market and results therefin (to those that own homes)
    c) oil
    d) unemployment

    Irrelevance:

    pretty much anything tracey ray ever said (see earlier posts from TSP interfund transfer limits, some black humor, I guess)

    a) like most people can't do better than the S&P
    b) those people who keep going in and out "will be sorry" later this year

    as Dr. Evil said........"yeahhhhh, riiiigggghhhhttt"

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  9. #17

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    I missed the interfund trade deadline by about 2 minutes yesterdy in ditching my last 3% of I fund.

    So looks like I will be about 4% higher on getting out as it is processed at COB today.

    An overview of my "practice" exit point shows that in the falling knife scenario, the faster you pull out - the less money you lose - even if you gain some back at the end.

    Looks like my nose is still above water in the standings (#24, last place among those with + returns). I aim to get it back later.
    Last edited by amoeba; 09-18-2008 at 09:51 PM. Reason: accuracy

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  11. #18

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Gainesville, Florida, USA
    Posts
    24,244

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    I always thought the faster you pull out the less fun you have - did I get that wrong?


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  13. #19

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Birchtree View Post
    I always thought the faster you pull out the less fun you have - did I get that wrong?
    sorry for the late answer - but - yes, I think its more fun to yank it back into G and watch the market plunder someone else's retirement than a whopping 25% additional decline in mine.

    What tea is poolman drinking to accrete 10% out of this market over the last month?

    Altho we've had a big inter-day swing to the upside; and futures are up - I'm not pushing any buttons just yet.....remember 9/19? 9/30? the alamo?

    what has gone up for a few days, or weeks, has ended up not breaking upside resistence and falling further....at least since mid-July.....and that was before Paulson admitted there was a credit problem. Now what? Credit is restored (not)? The recession is over (not)?

    It ain't over, till it's over.

    But that doesn't mean I won't try to make some money here.....common sense is one thing.....predicting what the masses will do is another.

    Amoeba out.

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  15. #20

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    A couple months since I last posted:

    Still trying to figure out the brain-dead moves into equities; there are varied predictions for the S&P in 2009, the latest by UBS is something on the order of 50%+; and guess what? If I miss that entirely, I'll still be ahead of them by having pulled out at 1270 and held for a year.

    I see wild fluctuations anywhere from 680 on the downside (that's right, end of 2009, 680), to maybe 1050 on the upside. The downside is easy to see - lame consumption and earnings - more foreclosures; declining net worth for those that keep their houses. Mid-2010 I hope will be better.

    The upside is obscure, but plausible, crazy optimism and bidding up of stocks to insane P:E's of 20 or even 30. Why? who knows, but it happened before and can happen again.

    For now - I am looking at getting back into CSI slowly and cautiously. Though there have been few down compared to up days (over the past two weeks) they have been big and sudden downers.

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  17. #21

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    so I changed my mind; screw this +10% in two days following worst job report in 34 yrs; I don't care - this rally has no legs - no fundamentals, I know it, you know, and your momma knows it:

    bailout schmailout, printing money ain't gonna work; you can't print your way out of a recession.

    I predict the following to happen:

    a) big 3 will have big job cuts, no matter who bails who out;

    b) the february jobs report will be worse than this last one;

    c) Obama's stimulus plan will fail; no way that the jobs lost - and unemployment gains, will be offset by some "infrastructure" program;

    The jobs lost, and the people unemployed are not road or bridge builders. We don't need roads and bridges; we need fuel-efficient public transit, by rail, and the infrastructure for that (something I posted here back in October, when the gov was thinking about tossing money into a giant garbage can of bad paper). No matter what course he takes, there are no instant jobs, and these unemployed people do not fill those shoes; infrastructure takes planning, which takes time, and lots of it- anyone involved in it knows that. All sorts of reviews, and laws, that are not fast trackable (a good thing).

    Guess Barack didn't take that elective at Harvard.

    Accordingly, if the market opens up tomorrow - I will increase my allocation in F, that's right, bond fund.....and build from there. Bonds will rule in 09!!!!

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  19. #22

    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Manassas, Virginia
    Posts
    3,498

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    so I changed my mind; screw this +10% in two days following worst job report in 34 yrs; I don't care - this rally has no legs - no fundamentals, I know it, you know, and your momma knows it:

    bailout schmailout, printing money ain't gonna work; you can't print your way out of a recession.

    I predict the following to happen:

    a) big 3 will have big job cuts, no matter who bails who out;

    b) the february jobs report will be worse than this last one;

    c) Obama's stimulus plan will fail; no way that the jobs lost - and unemployment gains, will be offset by some "infrastructure" program;

    The jobs lost, and the people unemployed are not road or bridge builders. We don't need roads and bridges; we need fuel-efficient public transit, by rail, and the infrastructure for that (something I posted here back in October, when the gov was thinking about tossing money into a giant garbage can of bad paper). No matter what course he takes, there are no instant jobs, and these unemployed people do not fill those shoes; infrastructure takes planning, which takes time, and lots of it- anyone involved in it knows that. All sorts of reviews, and laws, that are not fast trackable (a good thing).

    Guess Barack didn't take that elective at Harvard.

    Accordingly, if the market opens up tomorrow - I will increase my allocation in F, that's right, bond fund.....and build from there. Bonds will rule in 09!!!!
    I hear ya Amoeba, Let's see: Is this 9/11 day's up now ? Somthing like that. Don't worry, It's not going to 14,000 anytime soon. You will catch a Good Train soon.

    Just Relax, We have PPI and Retail Sales on Friday. Know one knows when that next 700 point down day will hit. It will... and I'll be in.

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  21. #23

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by poolman View Post
    I hear ya Amoeba, Let's see: Is this 9/11 day's up now ? Somthing like that. Don't worry, It's not going to 14,000 anytime soon. You will catch a Good Train soon.

    Just Relax, We have PPI and Retail Sales on Friday. Know one knows when that next 700 point down day will hit. It will... and I'll be in.

    yes, it was 9/11 up days; which followed a reverse set of 2/9 up days - which I know because you posted the charts on your message board I just finished reading!!!!

    The other correlate that I have been following closely, is the winning price of Sage fly rods on EBAY, which have been declining by nearly 10% over the last month - 20% over the last 2 months; but always seem to be snatched $5 above my maximum bid. What the flip does that have to do with equities? Well - its an indication that a commodity is worth what people are willing to pay. It will vary around a median, you may buy a bargain (or not), but the trend (moving average), remains down. I will have my day there, as well.

    Obama is just spewing forth crisis-management quick-fix rhetoric; still appears to be managed by cronies. Roads, bridges, railroads, any of that public works requires years of study, comment, environmental review, mitigation for various effects, plan and specking of 10,30 65, 90 and 100% plans, real estating, bid package, utilities, rights of way, bidding, awarding, permitting. Even if he had 1,000 projects on his desk and all the money in the world to spend, there's nothing he's gonna be able to do taking office in Feb 09 that will be spend money beyond the planning process, and could be built that calender year. Just doesn't work like that. It's not like declaring war on Iraq (did I just imply that going to war is easier than building a Federally-funded project? guess I did).

    Sometimes, its better to keep your mouth shut and think about what people tell you - instead of repeating it. Especially a president-elect.

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  23. #24

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Well - looks like the "rally" is over, darn it:

    I had hoped it would jump on an auto bailout announcement and I could ITF into F-fund on a dip there, but that didn't happen.

    I'll delay my entry point, into F, until such time that the bailout is confirmed by vote. That should bring some more suckers out of the closet; otherwise, my intent is to average into F before the holiday sales numbers hit the street - if FedEx's earnings are any indication, they will not be good.

    If anyone reads my account thread and is in any of the equity funds; just a slight hint of caution:

    sell sell sell
    sell it all
    sell it now
    sell like there's no tomorrow
    sell like you've never sold before

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