Page 191 of 193 FirstFirst ... 91141181189190191192193 LastLast
Results 2,281 to 2,292 of 2309

Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

  1. #2281

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    I missed the cut off. Hope tomorrow is a drift up going into the holiday coming. Setting up my move to G now.

  2.  
  3. #2282

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Notwithstanding the upside gap last Thursday, I find it's Holiday week timing and low volume suspicious. So, no chance I will chase it. Rather, I expect at least one and probably more big down days over the next 5-7 to take it all back. The modest jobs # miss (within noise) could portend a further rate cut, which would be stimulative, but I don't think that the FED will do it. Overall, I anticipate the remainder of this September to be choppy at best and end up slightly negative. I agree with Coolhand that sentiment is less predictive than it used to be, which I attribute to the proliferation of hedge instruments. Doesn't mean I won't make a play this month...but will choose a more obvious opportunity. I don't see one at current prices....so I'll wait to see if the 50 EMAs hold in the near term...and go from there.

  4.  
  5. #2283

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    Notwithstanding the upside gap last Thursday, I find it's Holiday week timing and low volume suspicious. So, no chance I will chase it. Rather, I expect at least one and probably more big down days over the next 5-7 to take it all back. The modest jobs # miss (within noise) could portend a further rate cut, which would be stimulative, but I don't think that the FED will do it. Overall, I anticipate the remainder of this September to be choppy at best and end up slightly negative. I agree with Coolhand that sentiment is less predictive than it used to be, which I attribute to the proliferation of hedge instruments. Doesn't mean I won't make a play this month...but will choose a more obvious opportunity. I don't see one at current prices....so I'll wait to see if the 50 EMAs hold in the near term...and go from there.
    With the 50 EMAs holding for 4-5 days, together with today's tweet about delaying some tariffs due 10/1, and the neutral sentiment number this morning (30's across the board, bears, bulls, neuts) I made a play of about 50% equities COB today....how long this move will continue, if it does at all - - - is a toss-up...if there's a reversal to a downdraft, I will get killed - but not as badly as if I was 100% in.

    This was not the obvious opportunity I was looking for, but I did want to make a play, and have another one in mind later in the month; if F-fund continues to undershoot.

  6.  
  7. #2284

    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Washington State
    Posts
    104

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Thx much for sharing... I just IFT'd to go into CSI a little today (leaving my 10% in F hoping it'll bounce off support); was feeling uneasy a bit and see that you an DB-Annie both IFT'd into the Mkts today which helps. Best of luck to you always!

  8.  
  9. #2285

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    The other half goes in, bringing me to 100% equities, COB...retail sales beat, trade news positive, bond yields heading to 2%. I'm betting on a breakout next week or two.

  10.  
  11. #2286

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    No point being coy...money is flying out of bonds and bond ETFs...the FED meets next Wednesday, and is expected to announce another (completely unwarranted, IMO) rate cut. If Powell then provides guidance in his remarks of yet another cut this year, a 2+% bottlerocket equity move is a lock. He may not do that, I wouldn't, but I'm not FED chairman. I see momentum in this latest stock and bond move anyways, and don't expect it to reverse on a dime. All aboard!


  12.  
  13. #2287

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Well, one of the key factors I watch coming off a volatlity period is the VIX 50EMA, which was breached yesterday. When this happens, it often signals pending declines EXCEPT, when it is only a few weeks removed from the peak...which it was. Under this circumstance, there's a decent chance the 50EMA is recaptured the day after. That's what appears to be happening, again, today. Watch VIX 16.1 near the close to see if it stays under that...if so...ALL ABOARD!

  14.  
  15. #2288

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Tightroping the VIX 50 EMA for 2nd day...sold I fund, holding 50% equities.

  16.  
  17. #2289

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    VIX lost it's 50EMA, and has stayed above it since my last post, contrary to what I expected. Today, SPY deadcatted a bounce midway through its recent 2850-2950 range. I think its a head fake, and markets will fall sharply on a jobs# miss this Friday. But not sure...reduced to 25% equities this last day of the month. Really got clobbered this September, but not for trying. IMO no one should trade on impeachment headlines which are headed, much sooner than most think, for the inevitable same result as that collusion investigation.

  18.  
  19. #2290

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    And don't forget that major financial corporations have been "leaking" their quarterly earnings early over the past couple of years. Earning season is kicking in now but I expect fireworks to begin later this week into next week.

  20.  
  21. #2291

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Reduced TSP to Zero equities, 90G, 10F. Expecting a huge drop after a job# slight miss. Nothing good here. Tried some knife catching trades in my Roth...got stopped out in 20 minutes with a 1% loss which would've been more if I held. I am determined not to go negative this year...as much as I IFT, I'm about ready to throw in the towel on this year and be happy with 6%.

  22.  
  23. #2292

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    SPY 50EMA is burnt toast..., next stop, the 200EMA @ 2,870 or so....not even thinking about buying anything right now.

  24.  
Page 191 of 193 FirstFirst ... 91141181189190191192193 LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
amoeba's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
amoeba's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
amoeba's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
AGG (F Fund) (delayed)
amoeba's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)