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Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

  1. #2185

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    AAII bulls jumped to mid 40s, which is high but not extreme like January, where it was followed by 3 or 4 consecutive weeks of further upgrind b4 a sharp collapse in the market. That collapse had a catalyst, the XIV liquidation, which wasn't a true event in the economic sense but rather AH manipulation. This specific event will never repeat but there are other potential catalysts. There are some similarities in the setup here, and, especially with currency exchanges, some differences. Bottom line....staying out.....will reconsider towards end of June to maybe bet on the midweek low volume holiday, which tends to have very little selling and an updrift, but nothing else at the moment.

    Sent from my SM-J320P using Tapatalk

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  3. #2186

    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    rockville, md
    Posts
    1,667

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    ye ol' S fund ain't goin down without a fight

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  5. #2187

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Well...I'm still searching for rhyme or reason for market direction...and what I'm coming up with is indices, especially S fund, are overbought. They could go a little higher before correcting a bit. Not confident.

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  7. #2188

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Did I say something? Yes I did. Now, I am betting on a seasonal independence day bounce, which, if it occurs, will be by 7/5 or earlier. The fade Friday sets up neutral for this at worst, IMO. Put lots of $ where my mouth is, but have sufficient cash to hedge if it starts going south. Will know soon.

    Market fireworks last year came weeks after 7/4...but history doesn't necessarily repeat.
    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    Well...I'm still searching for rhyme or reason for market direction...and what I'm coming up with is indices, especially S fund, are overbought. They could go a little higher before correcting a bit. Not confident.

    Sent from my SM-J320P using Tapatalk
    Sent from my SM-J320P using Tapatalk

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  9. #2189

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    My last post...on 6/30....was also the last one that made money....since 7/2, I've been pee-ing away returns going after this and that...to the tune of a negative 2.3% since then....I now will do better. I'm going to short the market beginning some time next week and catch a big payday. I will get my money back. Dang you, market!!! AARRGGHH!

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  11. #2190

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Doing a little better, a weakly positive August for me, should be well north of 10%, but I'm not. Sentiment a dead heat on the aaii for 2 weeks now...I'm expecting the seasonal weakness in September to kick in very soon. SC confirmation, FED rate decision, baked in, although uncertainty may push markets sideways or even down, before months end. If so, I intend to rebuy soon thereafter the midterms.

    Sent from my SM-J320P using Tapatalk

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  13. #2191

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    In rarified air currently - within the top 50 in the rankings (#41) - for the first time I believe in 10 years; I've finished in the top 10 only once (#9, 2009), and in the bottom 10 once as well (forgettable):

    Seemed rather easy to get there - all I had to do is be in G fund from late September to now (I'm back all in as of yesterday)....so in a meso-jolly mood....now, if random drivers would just stop hitting my car as they have recently (last 11 months; 2 front bumpers, 1 rear, one whole side keyed; prior 14 years - none), I would feel even better. I feel I have to put a bear fence around it. Better bad luck with body damage than with stock market; the latter can really hurt. Or feel good.

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  15. #2192

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Market looking, feeling, very bearish. The end may be near this bull run, and there may not be a bounce, or flag, to sell into before that is confirmed. Lost a good bit of my advantage...negative for October....and peed away most of September gains in the process. Midterms may turn this further South in a heartbeat. Those futures suggest a multipoint drop tomorrow....ahead of FAANG earnings later this week. May need to sell this and go hibernate for awhile.

    Sent from my SM-J320P using Tapatalk

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  17. #2193

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Been awhile...didn't sell when I last posted, and got killed in early December, bailed, missed January, then added 3.5% in February, averaging down to 12%S, where I am now. I think this market will drop below its 200 EMA, again...and this week is the start of what will be worse. The aaii posted another low bear reading in the 20s, 4th consecutive, so the suckers have not yet been shaken out...I guess that includes me.

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  19. #2194

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    So what did I do after my last post? Nothing...thinking that I wasn't that exposed with only 12% in the market. The last 2 moves have been big down for 3 months, and big up for 2 months....so who's expecting after 1 down week that the bleeding is all of a sudden going to stop? After a terrible GDP revision from europe and today's job # shocker? Not me. It feels like this market is going to continue to fly south like a duck in winter....down to the 200 EMA. So I bababa bailed even more! 97% G for me, 1% S,C,F for posterity. If I'm wrong, and there's some huge China deal Monday, I will take my lumps. Kinda doubt that will happen.

    Also, deal or no deal, China's growth has been and will continue to slow. Take them apples, buy-and-holders!

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  21. #2195

    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Washington State
    Posts
    185

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    I'm feel'n the same as you voiced amoeba. I'm just a couple years from retirement & afraid to lose much & not have the years to dig outta a hole. So been playing for a long time w/little more than a third of my TSP in Mrkts & usually even more in G-fund than that. So, like you, today I skinnied back 8% more to G leaving just token 1% in CSI & some L's; only difference is I've had 8-10% in F so keeping 7% there. If Mrkts play out as you say (down in short/intermediate) then F should stay healthy.
    THX for all your posting & best wishes to ya.

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  23. #2196

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    5th consecutive week of the aaii % bears in the 20s. No brainer sell and stay out until this head fake, dead cat, bounce, reaches a more rational bottom. At least 4% down from here by end of month or I let my last IFT rot on the vine. Prove me wrong, anyone.


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