Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

OK: So yesterday ended up not being a losing day; and here I sit watching funds go exactly the opposite I thought they would; so maybe the sidelines are a good place for me. There's so little history on bear market patterns that I have little to go on. Recent history suggests the 200 EMA of SPY (~2000) should be breached and then held for a bit before the market either continues downward to new lows or the bear trend breaks completely.

I'm surprised at how the market can reverse emotion on a dime like this; some of this is oil speculation; but oversupply hasn't changed. I can only guess it is some other play on politics or international money that I'm not clued into. Didn't see today coming.

Oh well.

Originally Posted by amoeba

OK: So yesterday ended up not being a losing day; and here I sit watching funds go exactly the opposite I thought they would; so maybe the sidelines are a good place for me. There's so little history on bear market patterns that I have little to go on. Recent history suggests the 200 EMA of SPY (~2000) should be breached and then held for a bit before the market either continues downward to new lows or the bear trend breaks completely.

I'm surprised at how the market can reverse emotion on a dime like this; some of this is oil speculation; but oversupply hasn't changed. I can only guess it is some other play on politics or international money that I'm not clued into. Didn't see today coming.

Oh well.

And I didn't trade on my own instinct above. Look at that S-car-go! Now I'm thinking 2,050 and more. But I've got trader's block. And I'm falling in the tracker, though in the top 200 still. For now.

Originally Posted by amoeba

And I didn't trade on my own instinct above. Look at that S-car-go! Now I'm thinking 2,050 and more. But I've got trader's block. And I'm falling in the tracker, though in the top 200 still. For now.

Did I say something? Good thing I read my own posts and put half my chips down earlier this week. If I'm lucky, I may be north of 1% COB. Yay. Letting it ride next week on the heels of today's revival and the seasonally positive days upcoming (see graph in Tom's commentary).

I am now seeing a potential 2,060 by weeks' end (3/18/16), but I may take whatever icing is left to be put on this rally and sell......still......looking up at that F-fund feeds the greed; I'd rather be looking down at it.

Originally Posted by amoeba

I am now seeing a potential 2,060 by weeks' end (3/18/16), but I may take whatever icing is left to be put on this rally and sell......still......looking up at that F-fund feeds the greed; I'd rather be looking down at it.

3/17/16: Finally caught that F-fund return; moving up the tracker (I'm tempted to take a screenshot of my place in the rankings for posterity). Trend intact (see my "free money" post in the short term strategies forum); additionally, we have some distinct inflow waves forming (more trading volume on updays); I see the next one right around 2,060....if this rally gets there at all.... If so, it could rise to 2,100 in another week. If not, we collapse down below 2,000 and maybe then some. Interesting choice.

And here I am stuck at only half equities. I good month so far, but could be better if I had more IFTs.

Originally Posted by amoeba

3/17/16: Finally caught that F-fund return; moving up the tracker (I'm tempted to take a screenshot of my place in the rankings for posterity).

Congrats. Me too! Hope we don't jinx it!

Originally Posted by clester

Congrats. Me too! Hope we don't jinx it!

Won't happen to me; I bailed; that F-fund is topped out (IOW, f'd). So are equities IMO. Look at the AAII sentiment; lowest bearishness since last December (January 4 excluded). A bunch of either holders or buyers. Time out.

http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results

See ya later. Gone fishing and to a conference; back in a week. No lookee at computer.

Arrrgh!!!! In addition to the carnage today, my FA issued a potential sell everything warning beginning 10/12. Something about the election. Which probably means hrc spells bad news for cap gains. Can you say higher taxes. They're coming.

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It's an interesting ride so far. Better hold on. I have a gut feeling this election year may be brutal.

I see it! The crossing of the 20 and 50 EMAs in the SPY! Last two of these were followed by a 5-10% correction. Not a death cross, but, possible concern if the 20 isn't recaptured soon and especially if volume increases, which it has not. Yet. Not sticking my head in the sand, this time.

Crap: we're screwed; looks like another -3% next week, with the 200 EMAs as the next stop down this elevator shaft. My FA has me in cash till after the election at least, and we all know what's in store thereafter. That's right ladies and gentlemen! Higher interest rates! I just hope the selloff isn't Monday.