Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

I thing they were hoping that AMZN would go up as Facebook did the day before since it is one of the FANG high growth stocks but this type of report from AMZN. AMZN spent money building their transport and delivery system to make sure that they could fulfill their PRIME delivery commitments. AMZN often sacrifices profits for growth and development. Then they turn around and give a great quarter and people are ok. Great growth stock but too scary and expensive for me.

Markets up in the face of oil declining off a rampant false rumor, bogus negative interest rate announcement in Japan, all of which IMO won't last much beyond the weekend:

Does anyone out there really believe that Saudi's are gonna cut back production? They didn't say so. Did oil inventories decline? No. Do you think that negative interest rates are sustainable? No. And AMZN miss by 1/3 on earnings? It's P/E is still north of 90.

This is BS trading and a bunch of hopers - there may be some kind of follow-through; but anyone who stays long will get what's coming to them. Pay attention. I say lower prices to come in all of the major indices.

Originally Posted by amoeba

Markets up in the face of oil declining off a rampant false rumor, bogus negative interest rate announcement in Japan, all of which IMO won't last much beyond the weekend:

Does anyone out there really believe that Saudi's are gonna cut back production? They didn't say so. Did oil inventories decline? No. Do you think that negative interest rates are sustainable? No. And AMZN miss by 1/3 on earnings? It's P/E is still north of 90.

This is BS trading and a bunch of hopers - there may be some kind of follow-through; but anyone who stays long will get what's coming to them. Pay attention. I say lower prices to come in all of the major indices.

But if there are enough prawns out there to soak up the weakness? We could still see another relief rally. On a Friday lol, next week should prove to be very interesting. No one would, imo, expect Japan's interest rate to stick for long. Russia, Saudi and others "talking" about oil. Rig count still needs to drop further. Still plenty of hurdles for oil, $25 - $40 range volatility near term. A lot of whipsaw action. That's why I'm not going all in on anything. I like my sleep. :-)

You are right of course. February may start with a bang but end in a fizzle. No illusions here...volatility is the new norm...for us old timers...we know we are stepping in a mine field. TSP Allocation numbers will be watched carefully. Now to break out that old TSPTALK T-Shirt...you know "Friends don't let friends buy and hold" in these deep market corrections or bear markets. I still have it somewhere in the closet" 😉

Originally Posted by respro

I agree. What I don't understand is why the buy up before earnings. Buying on pure hope?

Ah, yes, hopium for the masses. Someone on here used to talk about hopium often. The drug of choice for many.

PO

The recent IFTs show a stampede of autotracker members exiting equities today (1/29/16). Not sure if that is smart money or a contrarian indicator or IFTs burning a hole in pockets at the end of the month, but whatever it means, it was decisive. Monday 2/1/16 could move 1-3% more in either direction. As the market trading is making no sense to me at the moment, I can hardly venture a more specific guess so I won't.

A review of the last 3 months of the SPY (rounded to nearest 1/10th) shows the opportunities most of us missed:

Monthly highs in November, December, and January were 11/3; 12/1; and 1/3

Monthly lows were 11/13; 12/14; and 1/15.

This should have been easy money for someone; be out of equities at the beginning of the month and get in at the mid-month low. Yet, until last Friday and then only for a handful of us - all 1,500 autotracker members missed the boat on this evolving pattern.

Will prices continue to show a monthly cycle like this? Hard to know. But I'm not feeling frisky on day one.

I not feeling frisky about this market either Amoeba. Holding my powder. Market pivots are at 1970 and 2000. I need to get 3.5% by end of Feb to be back on target. At this stage the market doesn't seem to have enough gas for SPX 2000 but 1970 is feasible. Of course, oil or other news could change that. S may have more pent up emotion to release so theoretically it could move higher, but it has underperformed for some time now. Once this rally tops out, I think we begin a sharp pullback. If equities are to rally, I think they do it by mid Feb. which would mean the cycle may have changed. Mr. Market doesn't like it when we catch on to a pattern.

All the best in your investing.

FS

Originally Posted by felixthecat

You are right of course. February may start with a bang but end in a fizzle. No illusions here...volatility is the new norm...for us old timers...we know we are stepping in a mine field. TSP Allocation numbers will be watched carefully. Now to break out that old TSPTALK T-Shirt...you know "Friends don't let friends buy and hold" in these deep market corrections or bear markets. I still have it somewhere in the closet" 

Mine (In my first year on the tracker for being #4 as partial year leader in 2008 or 2009; not counting the G-fund which beat me) is posted on my cubicle wall where I can see it daily. I haven't been within a decimal place of that in the rankings since.

What the !:

Another consecutive week of ~8mbbl crude inventory build, a miss on the ISM, and the market is only down 1% at mid-session. Come on, all you weak hands...throw in the towel already! More bailing on the tracker today as SPY draws near its 1/20/16 52-week low, which, I should add - has been hard resistance since (not touched). Bonds going every which way. More economic numbers to come later this week to mix things up, Europe, USA jobs, etc.

Isn't this exciting?

My new motto this week Amoeba: "We all see what you want to see. Therefore... emotions triumph technical analysis".

Dollar down. Bonds will start to tank which I thought probable a few days ago. Watching this market is like watching a flock of hummingbirds all buzzing around, darting here and there. It's really hard to get a fix because the changes are constant. Given the bounce from 1878, my guess is that tomorrow is up to 1920 area. Next week, I still expect more downside.

FS