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Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

  1. #2041

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    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    I'll bet you Buffet knows this:

    if you had $1 and you had a annual return of 100% then you would have $2, but if you lost a dollar the next year (-50%), you would have $1 left. If you average 100% and -50%, you get an annual return of 25% per year, even though you made nothing.
    That's how the shysters do their math to make themselves look better. Instead of adding or subtracting gains and losses to a balance and then averaging out the total, they add their yearly percentage gains or losses and do an average. Doesn't work that way folks.................That's just like if you lose 50% your first year and make 100% the next, that isn't a 25% average per year (50% total), that results in a 0% total gain and average. It's all about consistency..............

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  3. #2042

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Well:

    Not much to say other than this week (of 12/14/15) is looking to be one of the most interesting of the year, and extremely hard to even think about predicting with or without news; seasonality, commodities, technicals, futures, play into it. Doesn't feel like ^VIX has peaked yet, even though it ended the week ~24 or so. Happy Holidays!

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  5. #2043

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Its been a few days since I've been on my thread:

    I feel a real shellacking coming before the end of the year. Just doesn't feel like a happy holiday. I know I'm wrong most of the time but I don't think so on this call. I feel like I need some more patience in order to make money and I don't have much.


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  7. #2044

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    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    That's what I'm telling myself Amoeba...that this is a way for the smart money to scare all of us out of the market primarily because trading is emotional. They already own everything so the decisions we see play out in the market are deliberative. I don't care what people say about EW, or technical analysis or any of the rest of it, people make decisions based on their emotions and most of us are about emotioned out. I said earlier I'd bail if SPX falls under 1993. I've revised that to 1956. If I end 2015 down big time, then I will have learned something...it will be painful but I'll be a lot smarter in the future about many things. We'll see how it plays out.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  9. #2045

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    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Uh, guys...

    The market (as measured by the S&P500) is down a 2 points or something. Hardly a collapse.

    By the way, isn't it interesting that the C Fund is down 0.5%. I guess that is dividend reinvestment. Nice, very nice...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  11. #2046

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    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    That's what I'm telling myself Amoeba...that this is a way for the smart money to scare all of us out of the market primarily because trading is emotional. They already own everything so the decisions we see play out in the market are deliberative. I don't care what people say about EW, or technical analysis or any of the rest of it, people make decisions based on their emotions and most of us are about emotioned out. I said earlier I'd bail if SPX falls under 1993. I've revised that to 1956. If I end 2015 down big time, then I will have learned something...it will be painful but I'll be a lot smarter in the future about many things. We'll see how it plays out.

    FS
    Well said FS...Now where did I put that fresh bottle of Captain Morgan? Arrgh it's a pirates life for me...
    "the biggest mistake that traders make is to let these short-term trades turn into longer-term investments when they don’t work." RevShark

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  13. #2047
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    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    At the end of the year losing a year's gains is a tough pill to swallow. If one was out of IFT's for November and bought first chance at Dec 1st closing price, they would be down nearly 5% in the C Fund (don't use monthly amount as it includes the December 1st rally price). It is far worse for the S Fund well over 6%.

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    Uh, guys...

    The market (as measured by the S&P500) is down a 2 points or something. Hardly a collapse.

    By the way, isn't it interesting that the C Fund is down 0.5%. I guess that is dividend reinvestment. Nice, very nice...

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  15. #2048

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Boy those Friday closing prices are so close to the limits in the C- and S-funds which I thought would trigger a rare follow-through down day on Xmas week (2,010 and 990):

    But it is so close it could go either way and with the holiday low volume....now I'm thinking flat to up (0.5-2.0%) by Thursday next week. Something like 2,050 wouldn't surprise me.

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  17. #2049

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    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    I believe it will go that way also Amoeba....however, I'm thinking more 2040 than 2050. I don't see it rallying back to 2077 next week.

    The big indicator to watch next week is the VIX. Anything close to 26 and we should all be thinking G Fund.

    We all need a break from the Grinch: but I think we still see a downward movement to between 1973 - 1956 early next week (like you Amoeba)...from there hopefully we will have bottomed and can finally get some recovery.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  19. #2050

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    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    but I think we still see a downward movement to between 1973 - 1956 early next week (like you Amoeba)...from there hopefully we will have bottomed and can finally get some recovery.
    FS
    This agrees with a projected drop to the mid-1900s in the next few days, but then next comes a blastoff into mid-May to new highs.
    I can't picture what he has next happening though...a big drop back down to the August lows...then a huge rally all the way into the year 2020.
    Market Analysis - 12/21/2015 > 61point8.com
    I'm not sure why I bother to read any of these predictions that are all over the web, since most often they're completely wrong.

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  21. #2051

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    Boy those Friday closing prices are so close to the limits in the C- and S-funds which I thought would trigger a rare follow-through down day on Xmas week (2,010 and 990):

    But it is so close it could go either way and with the holiday low volume....now I'm thinking flat to up (0.5-2.0%) by Thursday next week. Something like 2,050 wouldn't surprise me.
    Oh, did I say that? and did it really happen for once? OK, I'll present another observation, namely, the overlapping of the 20 and 50 day EMAs in the SPY (and for 3 days and counting by less than a point) for the first time since, hmmmm, not so long ago, that was late August 2015 and we all know what happened then (KABOOM!).

    Wonder if this recent history will repeat itself? Late August 2015 flopped around for about a week or two before the carpet was pulled.

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  23. #2052

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Miss on new home sales. Expecting some more of same in weeks to come (economic numbers, q4, misses). Don't know how this will play out.


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