All I can say amoeba is some days your the dog and some days your the fire hydrant...:banghead:
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Hello: just peeking my head out of the sand for a second. Oh, I see, the market is still moving sideways - or is that a death quiver? No thanks. I'll see ya later at either a much higher level (like a triple golden cross of C,S, and I) or when the market goes MUCH lower.
How low? I say 1,500 in the SPY or thereabouts. I'm about ready to let my second IFT rot on the vine this month for the first time in 2 years.
Yick.
Thought I saw something in the daily charts in the last hour so I went 30% into equities, 40% bonds; last time I did this I got creamed the next day on 25% of a 3.5% drop; markets are around those same levels; followed by a brief dead cat period. Hope to reduce my losses; not sure if I'll hold this position.
I let one go to waste last month and did as well at other times. Nothing new for me to do that with low amounts in and out. Today, I went into L Income because that's my risk tolerance right now. It's what I can sleep at night given market performance of late.
I am playing with real money not TSP tracker money and I haven't contributed since May 2010 and then only got to do it for 8.5 years (2001 we military got the right to do so). If I was contributing still, I think I could eat more risk because my horizon would be farther out.
I sensed the charts breaking down, so I essentially locked in a small gain, holding onto 25% F (which was down); look at that S-fund chart break down! As to C-fund, that's seems to be buoyed by financials and some of the bigs (AAPL, NKE). I'll bet the premium accounts are loading into F today.
As to Boehner and the prospect of McCarthy - I am unfortunately familiar with the latter, and my expectations or the result (as it affects shutdown, budget) are not good.
The gain I thought I locked, turned out not to be:
As just about everything I put money into (CS and F) were taken to the woodshed for a beating last friday; I ended up down 0.11%, leaving 5% in equities against reason that today (9/28/15) would somehow be positive, but NOOOO!!!!! There's still a huge gap north of 2000 in the SPY which may have given some level of optimism to be filled, but not so much after today. I will probably bail completely soon but will leave my last few equity fund chips in one last day to see if this dead cat has any bounce left.
Noting my post below, I bailed on Friday as the setup was all wrong. Friday bounce turned into a decline and I pulled the plug based on the indicators I track. I scraped a .03% gain and wasted both IFT's in the process. That said, it was better than being in L Income today. The markets could rally tomorrow, but that's a lot of ground to make up before I get another two IFTs after two more trading days.
The fade begins: and just before the IFT deadline. I sense we'll be lucky if anything is positive by COB (9/30/15). I'm hoping to close the month down only -0.5%, and the quarter short of -3.00%.
Ugh!
Too much doom and gloom for the market to sell off.
Hey...that market weakness was just to freeze the weak folks into wading in. We shall finish strongly in the green and set the stage for Oct 1. This is a classic power move to leave investors in the dust. No doubt...the train left the station. Sure you could say a bounce...but the trade action says this rebound will have strong legs.