Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

The title is why I'm gonna make this short and go for a walk - every day, my neighbor cooks something in the lunchroom, very icky smell, and brings it to thine cubicle and snorts, and clinks spoons, and it SMELLS for 1/2 an hour. I need a promotion, or some more money....aaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrgggggggggggggggggh hhhhhhhhhh:

OK - now that you know I'm nutz, here's todays musings - I bailed on I-fund hoping for a FV bonus, and still holding ~55% total C/S. Today was confusing, no reason, rhyme, for any movement, but it did end the day down a little, so my hopes to end the month in pository are temporarily on hold; I still see nothing negative in the near term - although there is some (non)Fed speak that QE taper will begin this September. Anyhow, I'm expecting the home sales to surprise tomorrow, and the markets to recover from the temporary minor blip down. C-fund to close tomorrow up 0.63%, and the SPY end-of-day at 1,703.

I just read the <1% IFT thread, then I read it again, then I read it again, and again...now I don't know which end is up and my head hurts...I'm under the impression you are well versed with <1%IFTing...is there some rule book you follow when<1%IFTing...kind of like the cheat sheet football coaches use to see if they should go for two or not..for ex, you should round down when....you should round up when...

Originally Posted by rcknfrewld

I just read the <1% IFT thread, then I read it again, then I read it again, and again...now I don't know which end is up and my head hurts...I'm under the impression you are well versed with <1%IFTing...is there some rule book you follow when<1%IFTing...kind of like the cheat sheet football coaches use to see if they should go for two or not..for ex, you should round down when....you should round up when...

well - as if I could even predict the stock market for a single trade (I can't); I can answer that question:

A) you may use the first, two IFT's for ANY move; into or out of any fund.

B) after those two IFT's; you may use any number of additional IFT's to move INTO the G-fund.

C) after the first IFT's; you may use any number of additional IFT's to ROUND UP (or down) by <1% in ANY fund. For example 1.01% in the I-fund and 98.99% in the G fund may be rounded to 2% I and 98% G.


As for today's trading......I did it again......exactly picked the end of a rally, let it go up one day, then lost it all - and held on.....the last two times I did this; I had a pre-set limit of 2% down in a fund before bailing.....that was breached in 4 days the first time (I cut losses, eventually buying back in at 1,585), and then - by mid-day one day later, the market clanked to 1,570 (the bottom). I actually ended up 0.1% on that highly risky move.....thinking I could get back in the next month, expecting a second top and lower right shoulder by the second week of July. Of course that didn't happen at all...kept rising like a moonshot....until I buy.

My risk tolerance (i.e., the % below buy-in share price), is lower for these latest IFT's (because it was closer what looked like the top). I'm near that already and still holding 1/2 equities (C/S). I went in thinking the economics supported a lag, but not a drop. And the home sales are not that bad - the miss is almost noise - and hardly unexpected given interest rate rises (rates are still not that high).

So I'm left with technicals - meaning - the market is topped, is headed for its 20 EMA's or lower (1,660), and doing so like water torture (a series of days). Since I'm coming up on the end of the month, I can probably bail without a miss of a bounce.........although I'd really like to catch an up day before doing so.

Tomorrow, unfortunately, I am expecting a further drop in the C-fund based on technical momentum, down to 1,677 tomorrow (7/25/13). C-fund share price to shed another 0.48%; more if the weekly claims breach 360,000.

so rounding up means you are buying more shares at the days closing price...rounding down means you selling your shares at the days closing price...the whole point being you can buy more shares at a cheaper price by rounding up when you think the market will close down... or you can lock in gains by rounding down when you think the market will finish up

Originally Posted by rcknfrewld

so rounding up means you are buying more shares at the days closing price...rounding down means you selling your shares at the days closing price...the whole point being you can buy more shares at a cheaper price by rounding up when you think the market will close down... or you can lock in gains by rounding down when you think the market will finish up

Yes...sorta. You are able to do the same kind of trades you do with the original IFTs, just that it is <1%. You still have to predict the closing price, since you put in your IFT by noon, and the sell or buy occurs at COB. So, yes, 'you can buy more shares at a cheaper price by rounding up when you THINK the market will close down'....but if it closes UP, you have just bought shares at a higher price. But it is so small that it really doesn't matter that much. I tried it a few times earlier, but gave up since you end up 'right' about as much as you end up 'wrong', and like I said, it's such a small amount anyway.

It does allow you to 'stay in the game' when you are out of your 2 IFTs, so it can be fun. Some people swear by it....ChessGuy for one. You can go back in either of our account talks and search for <1% and see how we did. But be careful, I got criticized by some of the 'moderators' for writing too much about it! (they said the FRTIB monitors our posts and may take it away if we get overly enthusiastic about it :toung: )

I am thinking about getting out of equities tomorrow as my second IFT. If I do, I will leave 2% in each of C,S,I,L2050, and L2040 so I can play the <1% game if I so desire!!

Originally Posted by rcknfrewld

so rounding up means you are buying more shares at the days closing price...rounding down means you selling your shares at the days closing price...the whole point being you can buy more shares at a cheaper price by rounding up when you think the market will close down... or you can lock in gains by rounding down when you think the market will finish up

yes. And don't forget this part:

D) Additional IFT's done by rounding of <1% can ONLY be done after the TSP system updates your account.

example: So, if you have 30%I and 70%G on monday, and on tuesday, your expect a gain that would increase so that you have 30.1% I and 69.9% G; you can ONLY do the additional IFT after the TSP system updates your account, which will be 5-6 hours after the market closes, or around 10pm EST. It doesn't matter that the market closed at 4 pm. You have to wait for it to show up on the TSP system before you do the additional IFT.

There is resistence south of 1,680; but it is soft, with lower intraday lowers for the past 3 days, this one coming on a traditionally more-than-not-up friday. Overall, earnings are NOT impressing (me).

Monday will witness continued, light action, with a modest negative close (C-fund down 0.32%; SPY close at 1,678).

The nicest thing about <1% moves is that you can actually increase your equity holdings somewhat significantly (kinda, and very hard to measure...).

For example, you can attempt to bump up (round up) existing holdings in the C, the S, the I, the L2020, the L2030, the L2040, and the L2050 when you have no IFTs left. If successful, you should have something like a 3% - 4% bump in equity holdings. If not successful, you really don't do anything. But let us say you panic out of the market on August 10th with your last IFT - but you craftily save one percent in all those funds - you at least have some ability to bump up your equity holdings about 3% at a time. A week of that and you are 10% - 15% more allocated to equities. Just in time for the summer swoon.

I would not waste my time with <1% moves into one fund. Why mess with gaining a half point in an allocation...

Amoeba,

I see you are 100% out of equities within the allotted week. Personally, the stable increase in the S&P500 through most of Friday kinda implies that da'Boyz are buying in. They try to buy into the market at a measured pace so they do not get the speculators bidding the prices up.

Why did you get out? Especially 100% out. Is there an attack from outer space about to take place? Maybe Israel will fly F16s over Jordan, over Iraq (with a refueling pit stop), and into northern Iran, then bomb something, then fly back, refuel with the flying liquid bomb over Iraq, fly over Jordan, and back to smiling friends and family? Maybe a Thermal Nuclear War with Canada? What are you seeing?

Originally Posted by Boghie

Amoeba,

I see you are 100% out of equities within the allotted week. Personally, the stable increase in the S&P500 through most of Friday kinda implies that da'Boyz are buying in. They try to buy into the market at a measured pace so they do not get the speculators bidding the prices up.

Why did you get out? Especially 100% out. Is there an attack from outer space about to take place? Maybe Israel will fly F16s over Jordan, over Iraq (with a refueling pit stop), and into northern Iran, then bomb something, then fly back, refuel with the flying liquid bomb over Iraq, fly over Jordan, and back to smiling friends and family? Maybe a Thermal Nuclear War with Canada? What are you seeing?

I saw nothing......the move was based on the magnitude of the differential between my original expectation and the actual mid-day C-fund index (I expected ~1,700 vs an intra-day noon price of 1,679); the flattening of the double top; the allowance of 2 more IFT's beginning this thursday; and the seasonally weak period in early August.

Risk of staying in or out is moderate. But I'm expecting a sorting out this week, see how Monday's trade goes, and later on in the week with the Fed and employment data. Hard to say. My gut feeling is that downside risk is greater than upside at the moment. I'm wondering if Monday will put in a lower intraday and how that will close. Hard to say.

He does have a point - probably from the land of point.