Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

Originally Posted by bmneveu

Not a bad snipe for someone as conservative as yourself. And in the middle of a crazy month too. Well done!

Thanks, but its only 0.10%, which is better than my -2.17% on my last attempt - which I held way too long - even through a 0.99% gain - which I lost, and then some. The friday failure to capture any significant gain after a ~4% loss the prior two sessions, and the high volume, is worrisome. If there is a bounce monday - which I doubt - I think it will be sold off before the close.

Feels like a falling knife.

Originally Posted by amoeba

Thanks, but its only 0.10%, which is better than my -2.17% on my last attempt - which I held way too long - even through a 0.99% gain - which I lost, and then some. The friday failure to capture any significant gain after a ~4% loss the prior two sessions, and the high volume, is worrisome. If there is a bounce monday - which I doubt - I think it will be sold off before the close.

Feels like a falling knife.

Doesn't it feel more like a mid-summer night's bad dream. I mean, shouldn't it be time for the massive 5% or 10% mid-season correction? I convinced myself that we were in 2009 and would not have one. This one actually feels very short term and very shallow. Isn't a Falling Knife something greater than a 4% decline? Just asking...

Originally Posted by Boghie

Doesn't it feel more like a mid-summer night's bad dream. I mean, shouldn't it be time for the massive 5% or 10% mid-season correction? I convinced myself that we were in 2009 and would not have one. This one actually feels very short term and very shallow. Isn't a Falling Knife something greater than a 4% decline? Just asking...

you're right on all counts.....of course, you don't know if you're in a correction until you are actually in one; it's just a feeling.....since there wasn't any significant reversal in trading volume in favor of advances.....it just doesn't feel right. If the 20 EMA crosses the 50 in the SPY, expect the 200 to be challenged (1,520); if not, expect the 50 to be recaptured (1,618).........and.........before the end of the month. Meaning I will have missed out.....but these scenarios could hardly be farther apart.

IOW, I have no idea what WTFlip is going on here. But the selling pressure friday.....when.....in the recent past it has been light volume and rebound pattern, is dramatically different. Hence, I'm out till July.

A little bit more relaxing without any IFT's:

And having booked a smidge of profit, which I expect was the last opportunity this month anyways. Now the bad news (or good, depending on where you are positioned); we are in a correction; expect the 200 EMA's to be completely taken out, forming a right shoulder; in the neighborhood of no higher than ~760 in the S-fund - or about 5% lower than current (6/24/13, noon). Dunno if this level will be an opportunity, but this week is certainly not one.....unless you are selling to cut losses. I should be in the middle of the pack on quarterly returns (negatory 1.5%) by the end of the day. Not much to crow about.

Enjoy.

Amoeba

In order to increase the interest in my account talk thread, I am now making predictions to a second decimal place for the C-fund:

Tomorrow will be a fractional downer, 0.47% loss.

My short attention span precludes me looking farther ahead, but one day is a start, right?

Originally Posted by amoeba

In order to increase the interest in my account talk thread, I am now making predictions to a second decimal place for the C-fund:

Tomorrow will be a fractional downer, 0.47% loss.

My short attention span precludes me looking farther ahead, but one day is a start, right?

Are you retiring tomorrow

All out, eh. Hard to make any money in an up market being all out. Just saying...

Originally Posted by Boghie

Are you retiring tomorrow

All out, eh. Hard to make any money in an up market being all out. Just saying...

Well, If I woulda stayed in where I started losing money (in the I-fund, last month) I would be warming benches at the hell rock bottom of the tracker. I got bit by a mid-day reversal on the day I exited; followed by a heavy volume sell, and then the last two days - including much lighter volume, today. Just everything all over the place. I don't see the market rocketing up to 1,700 before the end of June.

Oh yeah, my prediction for tomorrow - ummmmm - working on that second decimal place; I'm gonna saaaaaayyyyyyyyyy! - drum roll please..............


DOWN!!!! SPY to fall by 0.12% Somewhere around 1,599 - no fireworks tomorrow; just enough to keep suckers interested in this "rally".

Odds favor a sharp rally immediately after a fast sell off and meaningful fear spike are very high. Goldilocks has returned to the markets.

Originally Posted by Birchtree

Odds favor a sharp rally immediately after a fast sell off and meaningful fear spike are very high. Goldilocks has returned to the markets.

I predict now a 0.13% rise in the C-fund tomorrow (4th consecutive up day); with SPY falling slightly short of the 50 EMA (~1,614) on light volume (<110 million shares).

Originally Posted by amoeba

I predict now a 0.13% rise in the C-fund tomorrow (4th consecutive up day); with SPY falling slightly short of the 50 EMA (~1,614) on light volume (<110 million shares).

I predict you will not be right...

Attachment 24298

Originally Posted by JTH

I predict you will not be right...

Attachment 24298

And you are right about me being wrong, in addition, I have not been correct in either amount, or direction, on a single day....this will end right now. I predict the market to drift upwards - approaching, but not exceeding the 20 EMA, to about 1,612 - to be specific, a 0.78% gain in the C-fund share price. I am not going in, however, because I suspect there will be a better buying opportunity the week following the holiday.

Out