Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

Originally Posted by amoeba

Keep your finger on the button, and no oversleeping on the west coast.

Wish I could oversleep.

Me, I don't oversleep at all, but I get so caught up in what's happening in the am, I regularly miss getting into my account in a timely manner. Somehow I suspect it's helping me that I do all my morning reading at home, but make account changes after I get to work-usually too late to make account changes especially when I start answering phone messages once I take off my coat, or have to get ready for a meeting or something right around that time.

I rarely oversleep also. When I get to work the market is 1 1/2 hour away from opening and by opening I am well in to whatever e-mails, voice-mails, trouble reports and crises of the hour from all the forepersons.

By 10 (12 EST) I am too in to whatever is happening to remember, much less to have even looked at what the market is doing. By lunch time it is too late.

It's even worse in the summer as us Arizonans don't cotton to no daylight saving time.

So Alevin I feel your pain and the pain of all the rest of you. Just another consequence of the IFT restriction.

And by the way, I am grateful to have my job in spite of my whining above.

Well - I'm considering building my position in F-fund, which has hit my buy-in target in the 12.40-12.45 price range; I know I lost money trying to buy on the upside; so maybe I can pick the bottom on this one.

My reasoning on this is that when the bond share prices bottom out - at least the last time (in late October 2008), they did so before the stocks, and moved inversely to stocks in November 2008.

I know there were some other factors then (and since), but there could be a rotation in there to take advantage of if the wheels fall off equities this week. I think I will probably tread lightly - on the order of a 18-22% stake in F - I haven't been too good at catching knives recently.

Even if equities rally, I don't see bonds falling further as a result.........so I think my risks are, well, limited.

We will see....what happens. Good luck everyone.....

Originally Posted by amoeba

Well - I'm considering building my position in F-fund, which has hit my buy-in target in the 12.40-12.45 price range; I know I lost money trying to buy on the upside; so maybe I can pick the bottom on this one.

My reasoning on this is that when the bond share prices bottom out - at least the last time (in late October 2008), they did so before the stocks, and moved inversely to stocks in November 2008.

I know there were some other factors then (and since), but there could be a rotation in there to take advantage of if the wheels fall off equities this week. I think I will probably tread lightly - on the order of a 18-22% stake in F - I haven't been too good at catching knives recently.

Even if equities rally, I don't see bonds falling further as a result.........so I think my risks are, well, limited.

We will see....what happens. Good luck everyone.....

I'm in the F fund now, and I have to disagree with your thoughts of building a position in the F fund. As a short term, 1-2 day play? Sure.

While stocks have been going down, money was not flowing into bonds. When stocks start to rally, where will the money for bonds come from? Bonds will continue to suffer from oversupply. IMHO.

Originally Posted by 350zCommTech

I'm in the F fund now, and I have to disagree with your thoughts of building a position in the F fund. As a short term, 1-2 day play? Sure.

While stocks have been going down, money was not flowing into bonds. When stocks start to rally, where will the money for bonds come from? Bonds will continue to suffer from oversupply. IMHO.

Well - F-fund did turn up today; I'll wait till the open to see if this continues.....if equities drop like I think they will in the next 10 days, this could be a way to turn a buck. Or not.

Originally Posted by amoeba

Well - F-fund did turn up today; I'll wait till the open to see if this continues.....if equities drop like I think they will in the next 10 days, this could be a way to turn a buck. Or not.

Yes, it did, but reluctantly.

Notice the small gain of 4.5 cents. I'm just sitting in the F fund biding my time while I wait for capitulation in the market.

This Thursday is big for bond auctions.

Originally Posted by 350zCommTech

Yes, it did, but reluctantly.

Notice the small gain of 4.5 cents. I'm just sitting in the F fund biding my time while I wait for capitulation in the market.

This Thursday is a big for bond auctions.

Friday bad for employment numbers.....

well boyz:

I held off on changing my position today; I know you saw the market go flat, but look at the volume on SPY and QQQQ - nothing near the half billion and up figure we saw last fall on the sharp down days;

and look at the ^VIX - ......rising, but in the low 50's.

nothing there to indicate fear or panic, looks like alot of bulls, buy and holds, and short term traders; nothing solid;

If there is a sell-off, this past week was NOT IT.

It is tempting to buy the employment number (i.e., the bigger the job loss, the bigger the buying of stocks on bad news), which means everyone else is, so I doubt I will.

The other thing to keep in mind is.....if (and that's a big IF) there is a bounce......say, to something like 770 or so in one day, what do you think will happen after that? (answer: SELL, SELL, SELL - TO THE DEPTHS OF HELL)

Once the market drops to the mid-500's, say, when unemployment reaches 12% or so this June, GM is ch. 13, home prices down another 20%, and some more tasty morsels, that might be a buy. Or maybe not.

Amoeba,

You gotta love this chart:

by CalculatedRisk on 3/03/2009 03:49:00 PM

Nice pictures of black swans, the S&P chart, and the above ditty of exciting times in the market...

Still going to move a little into C/S tomorrow. I don't think I have the stomache to make any bold moves. And, that crappy IFT limit means my IFTs must (should ) be forward trades...

Still losing money - with a measly 3% in equity funds X 10% drop = 0.3% loss.

Very uneasy - ^vix stable at 50, spy volume under 500 million, NFP due out tomorrow at the open - and expectation is that it will disappoint, if it doesn't market may deadcat one more time........but then its heading south.

The housing plan is a total joke. A temporary handout/interest rate reduction; a free lunch refinance to some people, pissing off the rest who don't qualify; has all sorts of loopholes, such as allowing multi-unit homes to qualify, probably will have a bunch of investors moving into some house they want to refinance - and bailing after they get the money. A bunch of crap. Fortunately - it only pees away another $75B, but unfortunately, it will only delay the inevitable shakeout of home prices which must occur in order for the market to stabilize at fair values supportable by household incomes. temporary 2% loans, and refi's of houses to 105% of appraised value is dumb banking practice. No bank would even think of anything so stupid, especially in a declining home value market. Traditional 80% is fair - and that's what it is for everyone else.