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Thread: XL-entLady's Account Talk

  1. #1

    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Utah
    Posts
    1,991

    Default XL-entLady's Account Talk

    Good morning!

    I decided I should stop cluttering other peopleís threads and ramble on my own thread instead, so here I am!

    As you may already know from previous posts, Iím a newly retired FERS employee. I recently had to do a disability retirement that was several years earlier than my originally planned retirement date. My husband is also retired FERS, on an age-based retirement. So I have two TSP accounts to manage, but Iíll merge the percentages and treat them as one account for the purposes of this thread.

    My disability is degenerative and there are lots of medical bills so I need to make the best of my investments. (My medical condition is also very painful, so please excuse my grumpy days!)

    But we are debt-free so that helps. And Iím already contracting projects with my former agency again, which pays well. After I retired, they discovered that I was one of very few people who have an arcane skill needed to do certain specific things, so Iíll probably be able to bank a few bucks doing short-term contracted projects for a while. The projects require travel, which I donít do well, but for the dollars they are willing to pay me Iíll suck it up and grimace all the way to the bank!

    I usually invest using an approximate one to one stock to bond ratio (although Iím in more stocks lately). I keep most of my TSP bond allocation in G because Iím already tapping my TSP for income, so my investment percentages are tilted slightly toward asset preservation rather than asset growth.

    I invest the stock part of my TSP by tracking rolling averages. In mid-2003, I started tracking the fund prices and comparing them to their performance over the last 14, 28, 50, 100, 150 and 200 days. I use that information to allocate my account among all five funds, and I always stay diversified.

    Birchtree says I am limiting my upside potential by spreading out over all the funds, and he is right. But Iím not NEARLY as good at this as he is, and it limits my downside potential too. I donít ever get in on the very start of up or down trends that way, but itís less stress, and I have enough adventure in my life anymore just getting through each day so I donít need more adrenalin in my life. Maybe after Iíve been on the MB for a while longer Iíll be more confident of my allocations and allocate to fewer funds at a time.

    Iíve moved a bit more than usual into stocks this spring. In my TSP Iím currently allocated at 27% G, 7% F, 30% C, 15% S, and 21% I. Iím thinking I should get more back into G but havenít done it yet. My TSP account is currently up 2.87% for the year.

    For those of you who are interested, my figures show:

    G Fund is at its 14 day average, 0.2% above its 50 day average, and 1.0% above its 200 day average.
    F Fund is 0.1% above its 14 day average, 0.3% above its 50 day average, and 1.3% above its 200 day average.
    C Fund is 0.1% above its 14 day average, 2.3% above its 50 day average, and 3.0% above its 200 day average.
    S Fund is 0.1% below its 14 day average, 2.9% above its 50 day average, and 4.0% above its 200 day average.
    I Fund is at its 14 day average, 3.1% above its 50 day average, and 4.8% above its 200 day average.

    Any and all comments will always be gratefully accepted on this thread.

    Thanks for visiting with me!

    Lady


  2.  
  3. Default Re: XL-entLady's Account Talk

    Hi Lady,

    As a newbie, I certainly can't question the successful strategies of others, and my inquiry in no way means to do so. I'm curious about whether tracking the histories of the fund prices would be successful for me, too.

    We all know that past performance does not guarantee future results, but what other useful metric can people use? We'd all like to know what the funds will do in the future rather than the past, but what is the best way to predict that??

  4.  
  5. #3

    Default Re: XL-entLady's Account Talk

    [quote=XL-entLady;164856]Good morning!

    Iím a newly retired FERS employee with two TSP accounts to manage.

    But we are debt-free so that helps. And Iím already contracting projects with my former agency again, which pays well.

    You are off to a great start.

    I'm sorry about your condition; but make sure you continue with the health coverage through the Federal System - as this will continue to be a very bargain rate as long as you remain active.

    I usually invest using an approximate one to one stock to bond ratio (although Iím in more stocks lately). I keep most of my TSP bond allocation in G because Iím already tapping my TSP for income, so my investment percentages are tilted slightly toward asset preservation rather than asset growth.

    I invest the stock part of my TSP by tracking rolling averages. In mid-2003, I started tracking the fund prices and comparing them to their performance over the last 14, 28, 50, 100, 150 and 200 days. I use that information to allocate my account among all five funds, and I always stay diversified.

    Birchtree says I am limiting my upside potential by spreading out over all the funds, and he is right. And I'm 100% C Fund - but that would not be right for you. On days like today we lose everything; whereas you are protected no matter what. Do what you're comfortable with. Sounds to me like you have a good plan; and you can always make adjustments later on. But Iím not NEARLY as good at this as he is, and it limits my downside potential too. I donít ever get in on the very start of up or down trends that way, but itís less stress, and I have enough adventure in my life anymore just getting through each day so I donít need more adrenalin in my life. Maybe after Iíve been on the MB for a while longer Iíll be more confident of my allocations and allocate to fewer funds at a time.

    Iíve moved a bit more than usual into stocks this spring. In my TSP Iím currently allocated at 27% G, 7% F, 30% C, 15% S, and 21% I. Iím thinking I should get more back into G but havenít done it yet. My TSP account is currently up 2.87% for the year.

    For those of you who are interested, my figures show:

    G Fund is at its 14 day average, 0.2% above its 50 day average, and 1.0% above its 200 day average.
    F Fund is 0.1% above its 14 day average, 0.3% above its 50 day average, and 1.3% above its 200 day average.
    C Fund is 0.1% above its 14 day average, 2.3% above its 50 day average, and 3.0% above its 200 day average.
    S Fund is 0.1% below its 14 day average, 2.9% above its 50 day average, and 4.0% above its 200 day average.
    I Fund is at its 14 day average, 3.1% above its 50 day average, and 4.8% above its 200 day average.

    This is very good info.

    Thank you - I'm convinced you will be a valuable asset to the MB.

    Thank you for comming - and all the more for staying with us.

    Steady

  6.  
  7. #4

    Default Re: XL-entLady's Account Talk

    Good morning, XL-entLady,

    Meant to welcome you several days ago when you started posting, but I also have a full plate and neglected to do so.

    Quote Originally Posted by XL-entLady View Post
    My disability is degenerative and there are lots of medical bills so I need to make the best of my investments. (My medical condition is also very painful, so please excuse my grumpy days!)

    Sorry to hear about your disability, I am sure you are taking care of yourself, and know that stress is not good for any type of illness so please do be careful, we can all get very stressed out at times at this MB (you will see for yourself). However, we all enjoy ourselves very much, we are like a huge family and you will find very smart, knowledgeable members who are not afraid to share it with the rest of us.

    But we are debt-free so that helps. And Iím already contracting projects with my former agency again, which pays well.

    I also retired Dec 07 totally debt free and it is a blessing, so I know what you mean. Looks like your agency does not want to lose you, they recognize your skills and abilities and that must make you feel very good, congratulations!

    I usually invest using an approximate one to one stock to bond ratio (although Iím in more stocks lately). I keep most of my TSP bond allocation in G because Iím already tapping my TSP for income, so my investment percentages are tilted slightly toward asset preservation rather than asset growth.

    I invest the stock part of my TSP by tracking rolling averages. In mid-2003, I started tracking the fund prices and comparing them to their performance over the last 14, 28, 50, 100, 150 and 200 days. I use that information to allocate my account among all five funds, and I always stay diversified.

    Birchtree says I am limiting my upside potential by spreading out over all the funds, and he is right. But Iím not NEARLY as good at this as he is, and it limits my downside potential too. I donít ever get in on the very start of up or down trends that way, but itís less stress, and I have enough adventure in my life anymore just getting through each day so I donít need more adrenalin in my life. Maybe after Iíve been on the MB for a while longer Iíll be more confident of my allocations and allocate to fewer funds at a time.

    Iíve moved a bit more than usual into stocks this spring. In my TSP Iím currently allocated at 27% G, 7% F, 30% C, 15% S, and 21% I. Iím thinking I should get more back into G but havenít done it yet. My TSP account is currently up 2.87% for the year.

    For those of you who are interested, my figures show:

    G Fund is at its 14 day average, 0.2% above its 50 day average, and 1.0% above its 200 day average.
    F Fund is 0.1% above its 14 day average, 0.3% above its 50 day average, and 1.3% above its 200 day average.
    C Fund is 0.1% above its 14 day average, 2.3% above its 50 day average, and 3.0% above its 200 day average.
    S Fund is 0.1% below its 14 day average, 2.9% above its 50 day average, and 4.0% above its 200 day average.
    I Fund is at its 14 day average, 3.1% above its 50 day average, and 4.8% above its 200 day average.

    Any and all comments will always be gratefully accepted on this thread.

    Thanks for visiting with me!

    Lady
    Everyone here invests depending on so many factors, years to retire, risk levels, plus market analysis, seasonality, trends, etc, etc, but IMO for the retired like us it is a whole different ball game, so hang around and you will get to see how much the gurus are willing to share and help the less knowledgeable.

    Welcome to the MB, and hope you enjoy it as much as I do!

    CorMaGa34

  8.  
  9. #5

    Join Date
    May 2008
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    Default Re: XL-entLady's Account Talk

    An AFP news article just hit the wires saying that Warren Buffet is in Europe on an investment hunting trip because his company "was more focused on the United States than Europe and this trip is a move towards correcting that."

    "Buffett predicted the US economy would continue to face headwinds from the credit squeeze sparked by the collapse of the subprime or higher risk lending market. 'I don't think the effects of the credit crunch are far from over at all. I think there will be plenty of rippling secondary, tertiary effects,' he said."

    H-m-m-m-m....

    Lady

  10.  
  11. #6

    Default Re: XL-entLady's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by XL-entLady View Post
    An AFP news article just hit the wires saying that Warren Buffet is in Europe on an investment hunting trip because his company "was more focused on the United States than Europe and this trip is a move towards correcting that."

    "Buffett predicted the US economy would continue to face headwinds from the credit squeeze sparked by the collapse of the subprime or higher risk lending market. 'I don't think the effects of the credit crunch are far from over at all. I think there will be plenty of rippling secondary, tertiary effects,' he said."

    H-m-m-m-m....

    Lady
    Hi Sweets,
    It now feels awkward - but I kept saying the same thing for what felt like forever and after a few months decided to throw in the towel. What I would consider "a real correction" was close but had not really been achieved. So I kept expecting another bottom - one last good bottom to go in on.

    In a big way - I hope you're right! It would sure make me feel way more in tune with the "real state of our economy" and who knows - someone may actually think I know what I'm talking about.

  12.  
  13. #7

    Join Date
    May 2008
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    Utah
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    1,991

    Default Re: XL-entLady's Account Talk

    For those of you who are interested in what today's bloodbath did to the moving averages, my figures show:

    G Fund is at its 14 day average, 0.2% above its 50 day average, and 1.0% above its 200 day average.
    F Fund is 0.2% above its 14 day average, 0.5% above its 50 day average, and 1.6% above its 200 day average.
    C Fund is 0.4% below its 14 day average, 1.5% above its 50 day average, and 2.1% above its 200 day average.
    S Fund is 0.3% below its 14 day average, 2.6% above its 50 day average, and 3.7% above its 200 day average.
    I Fund is 0.4% below its 14 day average, 2.3% above its 50 day average, and 4.0% above its 200 day average.

    Congratuations to those who just moved to G and F, and for the rest of us, ouch! We'll just have to keep those long-term numbers in mind instead of focusing on the 14-day!

    Lady

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  15. #8

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  17. #9

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Gainesville, Florida, USA
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    24,244

    Default Re: XL-entLady's Account Talk

    Those members that are now locked on the lily pad may come to regret their bodacious move to freedom of responsibility and be forced to miss some extremely nice upside gains to come - I mean a lot can happen in eight days of trading with all the liquidity looking for the zone of least resistance. Build the rally and the buyers will shop.


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  19. #10

    Default Re: XL-entLady's Account Talk

    i'm staying put...

    so far the trend is up... down days happen.
    ~100% S fund since Feb 2012~

  20.  
  21. #11

    Default Re: XL-entLady's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Birchtree View Post
    Those members that are now locked on the lily pad may come to regret their bodacious move to freedom of responsibility and be forced to miss some extremely nice upside gains to come - I mean a lot can happen in eight days of trading with all the liquidity looking for the zone of least resistance. Build the rally and the buyers will shop.

    A lot can happen....Will $130 oil today be $150 by June 1? Will S&P drop back to March lows? Looks like a coin toss to me.

  22.  
  23. #12

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    Default Re: XL-entLady's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Asylum View Post
    i'm staying put...

    so far the trend is up... down days happen.
    I'm staying put, too, Asylum, at least for now.

    I made up my mind when this new upswing started that I wasn't going to bail unless the 14-day moving average crossed the 50-day, and we're a long way from that.

    My thinking, right or wrong, is that anything less than that is just yoyo market stuff. And this is an election year. The political powers know that if stocks are lower on election day than they were on January 1 then the ruling party gets booted out of office. So I'm betting that stock prices are good this fall, regardless of the means it takes to get them there.

    And if I get out now I wouldn't know when to get in again. I'm more 'buy and hold' than 'all out/all in' for the same reason I diversify. My crystal ball always seems to be in the shop for repairs!

    My two cents. I'd love to hear you opinion!

    Lady

  24.  
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