Thread: XL-entLady's Account Talk

Uncle Sam blocks me when I try and install Silverlight, so it won't be good at work for me, I'll try it when I get home.

Originally Posted by nnuut

Uncle Sam blocks me when I try and install Silverlight, so it won't be good at work for me, I'll try it when I get home.

Too bad. But it does use a bit of bandwidth because of the realtime streaming quotes, so if your IT has a Big Bad Brother attitude it's probably better to use for a home site anyway.

Lady

Sell In May And Go Away: Fact Or Fallacy?

By Prieur du Plessis on April 29, 2009

Where is the stock market heading? Has the rally that started in early March been exhausted? These are the key questions on all investors’ minds as financial markets remain caught between the frantic actions of central banks to get the cogs of the credit system and economy turning again on the one hand, and a still shaky economic and corporate outlook on the other.
It is therefore no wonder that even so-called “pop analysis”, including some legendary axioms, is resorted to in a quest for direction. And besides “buy low and sell high” few other axioms are more widely propagated than “sell in May and go away”. A Google search revealed an astounding 127,000 items featuring this phrase.
As equities have seen a particularly strong six-week rally, followed by what looks like the start of a consolidation/retracement of some of the recent gains, investors are justifiably questioning the market’s next move. And they nervously wonder whether this May will not only herald longer days in the Northern Hemisphere, but also live up to its reputation as the advent of a corrective phase in the markets.
The important issue, however, is whether this axiom actually has any scientific basis at all. Analyzing historical returns, the figures vary from market to market, but long-term statistics seem to show that the best time to be invested in equities is the six months from early November through to the end of April of the next year (”good” periods), while the “bad” periods normally occur over the six months from May to October.
A study of the MSCI World Index, a commonly used benchmark for global equity markets, reveals that since 1969 “good” periods returned +6.5% per annum while investors were actually in the red by -1.0% per annum during the “bad” periods.
“Sell in May and go away” also holds true for the US stock markets. An updated study by Plexus Asset Management of the S&P 500 Index shows that the returns of the “good” six-month periods from January 1950 to March 2009 were 7.9% per annum whereas those of the “bad” periods were 2.5% per annum.
A study of the pattern in monthly returns reveals that the “bad” periods of the S&P 500 Index are quite distinct, with five of the six months from May to October having lower average monthly returns than the six months of the good periods. Interestingly, May - the first month of the bad patch - is the only exception.

But what exactly does this mean for the investor who contemplates timing the market by selling in May and reinvesting in November? Further analysis shows that had one kept the investment in the S&P 500 Index only during the “good” six-month periods, and reinvested the proceeds in the money market during the “bad” six-month periods, the total return would have been 10.5% per annum.
These calculations do not take tax into account. And, of course, every time one switches out of and back into the stock market there are costs involved, which would also reduce the returns for the market timer.
How did the good and bad periods stack up during the past two years? The results are as follows.

• May 2007 - October 2007: +4.52%

• November 2007 - April 2008: -9.62%

• May 2008 - October 2008: -30.1%

• November 2008 - April 2009: -5.1%

Some you win, some you don’t! It seems that the axiom “sell in May and go away” in itself is a rather doubtful basis for timing equity investments. However, it may serve a useful purpose as input, together with other factors, to otherwise rational decision making.

http://www.dailymarkets.com/stocks/2...ct-or-fallacy/


So the answer to the title question is "a definite maybe." Except for our buddy, Birch.


Lady

The Anxious Index: Worst Of Recession Over?

The Survey of Professional Forecasters is little known or followed outside of econometric circles but it deserves more respect. Not because it is the oldest continuously calculated macro-economic prediction survey, but because it has an uncanny ability to predict both the start and end of recessions.

Now, I know, if you’re as cynical as me, you’re thinking, “But experts are hazardous to your financial health!” Yes, that is true. But there is wisdom in a crowd of prognosticators. With one caveat: as long as they toil away in obscurity and near anonymity. The more public their image and the higher their pay, the worse their predictions - yet another reason to ignore the chicklet-toothed “strategists” on CNBC.

The results are gathered and disseminated quarterly from the answers provided by a small group of about 40 handpicked experts. I use the term ‘expert’ because they all are required to produce forecasts as part of their normal jobs. The select group are academic, Wall St. economists, consulting firms, economists at multinationals, etc. But the one thing common to all of them is anonymity; ensuring that whatever the result, none of them can take claim for correct calls or be held accountable for terrible predictions. Although this may be appear as a disadvantage, it allows them to focus on the data. For some anonymity is liberating because it removes the potential stigma of not towing the party line (within their company or organization).

One specific survey question, referring to the probability of economic weakness has gained the most fame. This measure has come to be known by its nickname: “The Anxious Index”, given by David Leonhardt in his September 1st, 2002 article in the New York Times.

Alright, enough background. What does the data say? Here’s the chart showing the probability that GDP will fall in the following quarter:

[I can't get the charts in this article to paste into this post, but I have included the link below so you can see the original article if you're interested. s/Lady]
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

The recent data is the highest in the series. In the last quarter of 2008, the probability of a decline in GDP in the following quarter was 74.78% and in the first quarter of 2009 it was 73.98%. The next closest to this was back in the last quarter of 1974 (74.06%).

Interestingly enough, the probability for the present quarter experiencing a declining GDP was also the highest on record coming in at 90.14% and 94.41%. Basically the forecasters are saying, Duh? We are in a very deep recession! Why are you bothering to ask this silly question?

The Anxious Index foretells a recession when the probability of the next quarter experiencing a fall in GDP is 30% or more. You can see from the chart that it either coincides or predicts every single recession we’ve seen in the US. The most recent signal came in the first quarter of 2008 when the probability jumped to 42.91%. Of course, there were many other reasons why it was predictable at the start of 2008 that we were in a recession.

Similarly when it peaks and begins to come back down, it predicts that very soon, the economy will return to normalcy. Not immediately, but that the worst is over. The second quarter data for 2009 will be released in a little while and if it continues to head down or fall dramatically as is the pattern from previous recessions, then we have even more reason to believe that the worst is over.

Of course, that doesn’t mean that everything is suddenly peachy. It means that things stop getting worse at an accelerated rate. Then the next step is for them to plateau and then to rise.

I’ve focused on the predictions for GDP but the Forecast survey includes data on many other macro-economic variables. Follow the above link to the Philli Fed’s site and take a look around to discover more.

The Anxious Index from the Survey of Professional Forecasters seems to concur with the Index of Coincident Indicators and at the same time, manage to be one tiny step ahead:

[Same problem as mentioned above. s/Lady]

Source: Recession, Far From Over, Already Setting Records
That isn’t surprising since the whole point of coincident indicators is to simply reflect the current situation while the Anxious Index attempts to predict the future economic situation.

So while the stock market is a forward discounting mechanism, here’s an interesting reason why, this time, the S&P 500 may actually lag GDP.

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/

Okay, got to go shopping now. Y'all probably don't remember, but I mentioned once that my two favorite NBA teams are the Utah Jazz and whoever is playing the LA Lakers. I have to go be fitted for my black arm band now.

Might as well get some milk and eggs while I'm out.

Lady

Originally Posted by XL-entLady

Might as well get some milk and eggs while I'm out.
Lady

Great idea Lady! TSPtwitter.com!! One message and everyone knows what your move is for the day!!!! Might be great for the premium services. Or if you happen to want to know how much money Birch has made in any given hour..................

I'll be careful not to mention how much money I'm going to make today - but I will make it known how much I've made over the last eight weeks. That'll be fun won't it Ferdinand?

Originally Posted by XL-entLady

Okay, got to go shopping now. Y'all probably don't remember, but I mentioned once that my two favorite NBA teams are the Utah Jazz and whoever is playing the LA Lakers. I have to go be fitted for my black arm band now.

Might as well get some milk and eggs while I'm out.

Lady

Originally Posted by Intrepid_Investor

Great idea Lady! TSPtwitter.com!! One message and everyone knows what your move is for the day!!!!

Doesn't take me long to buy a 1/2 gallon of milk.

And I posted that because I'm ticked that my Jazz got on the team bus about a month ago and forgot to get back off , not because I wanted the kids to have a free-for-all while the teacher was out of the room. I'm not used to this "Moderator" stuff yet .... Going to have to rethink some of my posts.

Lady

Just try not to be a Griffin #2.

Originally Posted by Birchtree

Just try not to be a Griffin #2.

Ah, Birch, ol' buddy, you know me better than most and you KNOW I'm such a gentle, amiable, easy-going .... um-m-m .... where's my thesaurus!

Lady

Birch, did you ghost-write Dave Fry's column today?!


Run with Them or Get Run Over

By David Fry


April 29, 2009



http://seekingalpha.com/article/1342...-have-the-tape

Lady