Thread: XL-entLady's Account Talk

So here is the third version of the data table. Data has been updated with the latest prices and so is slightly different from the previous two versions.

The comma's are placeholders to make the table space correctly when imported to the MB. The explanation I've included is probably way too simplistic for the vast majority of you, but I wanted to make it readily apparent to even the most financially unsophisticated who might see it.

So now I need your input. Which of the three versions is the most user friendly in your opinion? Would adding colors in some manner help, or given the differences in monitors, would it not be of assistance? Any other suggestions? Or is the data of interest to any of you? For example, say, weekly on a Friday morning? Please PM me and let me know, and include any suggestions you may have.

If the data doesn't work for anyone else I'll continue to track it for my own use but won't clutter the MB with its posting. TIA for any comments!

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,G Fund,,,,F Fund,,,,C Fund,,,S Fund,,,I Fund
14 day SMA: ,,+0.0%,,,,+0.2%,,,,,+0.1%,,,,+0.9%,,,,-1.6%
28 day SMA: ,,+0.1%,,,,+0.4%,,,,,+1.6%,,,,+2.3%,,,,-3.2%
50 day SMA: ,,+0.2%,,,,+0.5%,,,,,+2.5%,,,,+3.8%,,,,-3.9%
100 day SMA: ,,+0.5%,,,+0.4%,,,,-1.3%,,,,,-0.1%,,,,-9.1%
150 day SMA: ,,+0.8%,,,+0.2%,,,,-2.4%,,,,,+0.1%,,,-10.6%
200 day SMA: ,,+1.1%,,,+0.2%,,,,-2.3%,,,,,+0.9%,,,-10.0%

The above numbers are the simple moving averages (SMAs) for each fund, based on my own records and simplified by being recorded only once a week. For example, the 50 day SMA consists of adding up the price for the last 7 weeks (49 days) and then dividing by 7. The resulting number is compared with the latest share price available. If the latest share price is less than the average share price for that timeframe, the SMA is a negative number. If the latest share price is greater than the average share price for that timeframe, the SMA is a positive number. Follow the column down in order to see how a TSP Fund is trending long-term.

Corepuncher has already pointed out some excellent refinements. (We KNEW he is a wizard at these things!) As a result, updated information will be coming out soon. Thanks, CP!

(But right now it's time for yoga ....)

The data below is the latest version of what has become very much a “work in progress” so please bear with me! CP pointed out an error in my earlier formulas that resulted in the data being correct but for a shorter period of time than what was indicated on the Y Axis label. Oops!

And now it’s confession time. I know forensic accounting; it’s part of my job. Give me a balance sheet or a cash flow statement and I’m all over it. BUT my knowledge of the financial markets is self-taught only and there are black holes there that I’m still filling in. When I created my spreadsheets many years ago I used calendar days rather than trading days and I never caught the error. I'm so embarrassed!

SO …. The data below is now based on the proper amount of trading days and the Y Axis label is now correct. The commas are placeholders to make the table space itself correctly when imported to the MB.

And repeating my recent questions, would adding colors in some manner help to grab the data visually? Or given the differences in monitors, would that not be advisable? Any other suggestions? Or is the data of interest to any of you? For example, say, weekly on a Friday morning? Please PM me and let me know, and please include any suggestions you may have.

If the data doesn't work for anyone else I'll continue to track it for my own use but won't clutter the MB with its posting. TIA for any suggestions!

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,G Fund,,,,F Fund,,,,C Fund,,,S Fund,,,I Fund
10 day SMA: ,,+0.0%,,,,+0.2%,,,,,+0.1%,,,,+0.9%,,,,-1.6%
20 day SMA: ,,+0.1%,,,,+0.4%,,,,,+1.6%,,,,+2.3%,,,,-3.2%
50 day SMA: ,,+0.4%,,,,+0.7%,,,,,+1.1%,,,,+2.0%,,,,-5.9%
100 day SMA: ,,+0.7%,,,+0.2%,,,,-2.5%,,,,,-0.2%,,,,-10.6%
150 day SMA: ,,+1.1%,,,+0.1%,,,,-2.2%,,,,,+1.0%,,,-10.0%
200 day SMA: ,,+1.5%,,,+0.5%,,,,-4.0%,,,,,-0.2%,,,-11.8%

The above numbers are the simple moving averages (SMAs) for each fund, based on my own records and simplified by being recorded only once a week. Follow the column down in order to see how a TSP Fund is trending long-term.

I personally like color. You could keep the values BLACK if < 1% either way, then red for more than 1% negative, and green for > 1% positive?? (also bolded the green to show up better below...)

Just one idea!

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,G Fund,,,,F Fund,,,,C Fund,,,S Fund,,,I Fund
10 day SMA: ,,+0.0%,,,,+0.2%,,,,,+0.1%,,,,+0.9%,,,,-1.6%
20 day SMA: ,,+0.1%,,,,+0.4%,,,,,+1.6%,,,,+2.3%,,,,-3.2%
50 day SMA: ,,+0.4%,,,,+0.7%,,,,,+1.1%,,,,+2.0%,,,,-5.9%
100 day SMA: ,,+0.7%,,,+0.2%,,,,-2.5%,,,,,-0.2%,,,,-10.6%
150 day SMA: ,,+1.1%,,,+0.1%,,,,-2.2%,,,,,+1.0%,,,-10.0%
200 day SMA: ,,+1.5%,,,+0.5%,,,,-4.0%,,,,,-0.2%,,,-11.8%

Many years ago - maybe eight or ten - I was talking to the CFO of a very successful company. I had just come to the realization that 'buy and hold' wasn't working for me. I had been 100% C Fund that year and C had lost about 10% at the same time that F Fund was gaining 10%. (Thats a 20% swing!) I mentioned to the CFO that I was going to have to start managing my retirement account more actively and he shared the philosophy he used to manage his personal holdings.

He said he wasn't good at blackjack and he always lost money playing the tables in Vegas. And he likened playing the markets to playing the tables. He said it worked for a few lucky and intuitive folks but not for him. Then he said, "When I'm dealing with my money, I don't play the markets; I pick the trends!"

I decided if it was good enough for him then I'd better pay attention. And that's why I pay so much attention to moving averages in the market. For what it's worth.

And by the way, I've decided to reallocate my account to 82% G, 3% F, 5% C and 10% S.

Lets see,,,,,Luck,,,,Trend,,,,Luck,,,,Trend,,,,,Luck,,, ,,Trend.

I'll take "trend" ! I'm All - IN ! Let it ride ! Shoot the goose ! :toung:

Lady,

I find your postings to be informative and helpful. I like Corepuncher's suggestion to use color - green and red to emphasize losses and gains. I have noticed that you appear to be an astute investor and admire your modesty.

Originally Posted by XL-entLady

Many years ago - maybe eight or ten - I was talking to the CFO of a very successful company. I had just come to the realization that 'buy and hold' wasn't working for me. I had been 100% C Fund that year and C had lost about 10% at the same time that F Fund was gaining 10%. (Thats a 20% swing!) I mentioned to the CFO that I was going to have to start managing my retirement account more actively and he shared the philosophy he used to manage his personal holdings.

He said he wasn't good at blackjack and he always lost money playing the tables in Vegas. And he likened playing the markets to playing the tables. He said it worked for a few lucky and intuitive folks but not for him. Then he said, "When I'm dealing with my money, I don't play the markets; I pick the trends!"

I decided if it was good enough for him then I'd better pay attention. And that's why I pay so much attention to moving averages in the market. For what it's worth.

And by the way, I've decided to reallocate my account to 82% G, 3% F, 5% C and 10% S.

I like you too XL-entLady

Oh gosh, you guys say the nicest things!

My 'ear to the ground' is hearing almost nothing but bad. Everyone is telling me the bottom isn't in yet. So I'm moving again, to 92% G, 3% F and 5% S. And I'm probably going to be sorry about the S!

One small note. I did talk to one jaded soul yesterday who told me to look for a market move upward right after the Republican convention is over because he thinks that McCain is smelling blood in the water (his words - he's a shark!), and the ruling party thinks they might be able to pull this one out if they can show a "recovering" economy between now and November.

For what it's worth,

Lady

Originally Posted by XL-entLady

My 'ear to the ground' is hearing almost nothing but bad. Everyone is telling me the bottom isn't in yet. So I'm moving again, to 92% G, 3% F and 5% S. And I'm probably going to be sorry about the S!

One small note. I did talk to one jaded soul yesterday who told me to look for a market move upward right after the Republican convention is over because he thinks that McCain is smelling blood in the water (his words - he's a shark!), and the ruling party thinks they might be able to pull this one out if they can show a "recovering" economy between now and November.

For what it's worth,

Lady

Lady, I understand your wanting to keep something in the (S) Fund. Its
taken the lead, time and time again after dips. Down is not straight, maybe
you'll catch a little $somet'n-some'tn$ and pull the trigger then.
Anyway, Good Luck and Watch Closely !