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Thread: James48843 Account Talk

  1. #1009

    Join Date
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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Excellent news! What a wonderful beginning to a retirement!

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  3. Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    I know the area well. Thought I recognized that Marina! Beautiful home.

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  5. #1011

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    ok- Well, here goes.

    I am seeing, in Industry that I work with, signs of a much stronger than expected rebound. While April was horrendous for a company I just talked to on the phone, the guy said THEY were all blown away by sudden orders coming out of the woodwork all month, and, believe it or not, they finished May within 3% of an all time record for shipped product, and orderbooks bulging unexpectedly.

    If other companies are likke that company- then this rebound is for real.

    So I am going in as follows:

    C= 40%
    S= 55%
    I = 2% (just for fun)
    F= 3%.

    No guts, no glory. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

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  7. #1012

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    No idea what is driving this market.

    You would think that with as much turbulence as is happening to business, markets would be shaky, at best.

    But here we are, with C, S , and I, up by huge amounts already, and that is only after just the first 5 trading days of June.

    C= +4.96%, S= +7.25%, I=+7.09%

    AND-

    Market futures are all in positive territory as well this morning.


    Somebody is pouring cash into this market.

    It's just- amazing, isn't it?

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  9. #1013

    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    Somebody is pouring cash into this market.
    The Fed, for one.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  11. #1014

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    The Fed, for one.



    So .....WHERE.....IS.....THE....INFLATION?

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  13. #1015

    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    So .....WHERE.....IS.....THE....INFLATION?
    In the stock market.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  14.  
  15. #1016

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    So... in the premium threads, I saw a discussion about "How could the Bureau of Labor Statistics be off by 11 million jobs???"

    That was friday. Today, there are a couple of good articles floating around saying that it isn't necessarily as good as people thought- it may be nothing more than some readjusting, and incorrect classifying that happened, just because it's trying to figure out what it is. Remember, the businesses and the states that are juggling this are still trying to figure out what the economy is doing.

    Good article here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/may-j...101134754.html
    It says the real unemployment number is likely to be 16%, not the 13% reported. The problem is the way non-working people were reported by companies, in the absence of detailed guideance.
    For example, the article makes these points:

    " The BLS cautioned that due to the COVID-19 lockdowns, many survey respondents identified themselves as “employed but absent due to other reasons,” when they should more accurately be identified as “unemployed on temporary layoff.” This is not a new issue. According to the BLS, had these respondents been more accurately recorded, “the overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported.”

    The labor participation rate also plunged in May, meaning the actual unemployment rate could very well be 20% instead of the 13% reported- so we best wait another month or two for things to shake out before understanding where we really stand.

    Now-here is a good set of pictures that explains a lot to me: (Kudo's to the graphic creation department- you guys rock).

    unemployment-shift.jpg

    You see that big drop of over 7.5 million jobs lost in April, and then 1.2 million back to work in May? Think about that. That's the 7.5 million laid of when everything shut down. Hardly anybody worked at all in April in the Leisure and hospitality industry! Think about shut down airlines flying empty airplanes, and Casinos in Vegas closed. Well, yes, we may have gotten a few hotels back open again in May- but I would venture to guess that some of those employees are called back only because it is part of the terms of the loan- that if they are kept on until August, the paycheck protection loans will turn into grants for those employers. And some of them are affected by that extra $600 in federal cash to stay laid off, too. Employment of who is, and who is not, working, is going to be artificially affected for a while.

    If things aren't considerably improved by the time the money runs out, and if there isn't any more stimulus added, then I fear those folks who ARE working today, will be quickly dropped off the rolls of the employed again, and may show up in October UN-employment lines and figures.

    It's going to be a bumpy ride, without a good clear direction for some time to come. Keep your fingers crossed that we're past the hard part.

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  17. #1017

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Oh, and Forbes magazine is calling the unemployment report data a "glaring errors, unemployment may be at 20%.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkel.../#1d3a784f60d3


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  19. #1018

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    OMG!

    Look at the futures market- down over 3% now.

    Combined with last weeks tumble- I’m thinking now we’re getting a new, 2nd wave down. After I was so sure last week that it was just a blip.

    I’m so screwed.

    I gotta move to preservation, and think hard about where we are going. To 50% preservation G , (20% in F, 10% each in C, S, and I) I go.

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  21. #1019

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Jesus- two hours later and much of that decline has vanished???

    I gotta stop looking at stuff at 3 am and just leave it alone.


    Well, I placed the 3 am trade request. Maybe I just let it hang there, and look at the market again at 11:40 in the morning, and decide what I want to do then.


    I used to have lots of confidence that I could harness the right direction and ride it to a profit.

    My confidence is short these days.


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

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  23. #1020

    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    you and me both. I got caught on a high wave and the incorrect jobs report. Trying to decide on the buy and hold strategy or cut my losses with a partial move to G.

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