Ok- listen here-
In the fall of 1987, I was walking down the hall at my university, and I heard the guy in a classroom tell another guy “use your student loan money to buy stocks! They just keep going up, and up. You can’t lose- it’s a trend, and you just gotta get with it!”
Well, less than a week later, the market crash of October 87 happened.
I’m telling ya- something is scaring the heck out of me right now. The economy is ok, but it is NOT great. There are blinking signs all around saying things aren’t quite right. I can’t put my finger on them all, but I am concerned - and it is causing me- a guy who normally stays invested, to sit on the sidelines right now- watching a +5% or more gain in a single month- its m mi asking me nervous.
Heck- I’m just saying- at some point, the market needs a breather. I’m dizzy at this rapid ascent. I need some oxygen.
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Thanks for the warning. I hope you're wrong but we know something is going to happen eventually.
One thing I may differ on, and you probably know I'm usually more defensive, is that stocks have been moving sideways for about two years now. Lots of rapid ascents, but several rapid declines too, so it feels like a consolidation. But yes, historically speaking, stocks are still at very high P/E levels. The question is whether the market justifies those high valuations. 0% interest rates kept stocks afloat for many years, and here they are going down again. Is it different this time? Maybe so.
By the way, the S&P was actually up 2% for the year in 1987 despite that devastating crash. And it was up every year from 1982 to 1989.
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
What a strange day.
What a strange week/month/etc.
I'm moving to the sidelines today- just become I'm over 12% on the year, and we're at what I consider a kind of a lofty level.
So I just moved to :
"L-Income= 30% "
G-fund = 55%
"F -fund = 05%"
I -fund = 10%
Effective close of business today. My second move of the month is to safer and more secure positions.
My gut is telling me we just entered an extremely volatile period of time, with an expectation of big swings.
i'm out right now- and going to stay on the sidelines to better understand to swings to come.
What a strange week.
Throwing up my hands. I’m back in starting Monday. The dog wagged me.
Moving to :
C=30%
S=60%
I=10%
Effective COB Monday.
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I feel a disturbance in the force.
Yes- it is clear now. It’s time to move away. The force is about to rupture.
IMG_5843.JPG
Moving to a new position outside the Death Star.
G= 80%
F = 15%
C = 02%
S = 02%
I = 02%
Moving to the safety of the Imperial Battle Cruiser.
Good luck!
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Mark this day in your logbooks-
OK_ Well, that disturbance in the force was just a little tremor in the Iraq area.
Back to the party.
Moving now to 50% "C" fund; 20% S fund, and 30% I fund, as I feel a falling dollar will help internationally, and the fear around the Iraq/Iran war subsiding in the week ahead. They are only going to target Trump properties. I won't be checking in to Maralargo anytime soon.
I'm being the contrarian here. Wish me luck.
Cheer! Effective COB TOMORROW (Tuesday).
So I saw this movie last night- for the first time ever.
"THE BIG SHORT".
Saw it on PLUTO TV.
If you haven't seen it, I highly recommend it. It was both very insightful, AND funny, in a dry-humor kind of way- just the way I like my humor.
Enjoy:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Big_Short_(film)
Go find it and watch it this week. You'll enjoy it!
Or TEN TIMES your money back!
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