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Thread: James48843 Account Talk

  1. #889

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    How does L-Income work for you as a safe haven?
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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  3. #890

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Whipsaw View Post
    How does L-Income work for you as a safe haven?
    The L-Income fund is MOSTLY "G" and "F" fund. 73% "G" fund, and 6% "F" fund. Both of those are what I consider extreme safety.
    If I am correct, and the market is headed downwards, that almost 80% of my savings is in a safe place, and that "F" fund may even bounce higher.
    So I am not going to be out a whole lot.

    On the other hand, there is a small amount of "C", and a tiny amount of "S" and "I" in there- so on the off chance that I am wrong, and the markets go higher, I STILL have a positive outcome.


    income.jpg

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  5. #891

    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    On the other hand, there is a small amount of "C", and a tiny amount of "S" and "I" in there- so on the off chance that I am wrong, and the markets go higher, I STILL have a positive outcome.
    I like that idea James. Over the years my mistakes always seem to lean on the "I'm too bearish" side, and I have always considered a bull market strategy of keeping some percentage in stocks at all times. Once we're in the bear (as indicators dictate), that would change.

    Don Hays, an old money manager, used to say to keep a minimum of 55% in stocks at all times because of the historical positive bias for stocks in the long term.

    That's a little too aggressive for me, but I forget if that was just in bull markets. It's been a while since I read his stuff.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


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  7. #892

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    I'm still seeing quite a bit more downside here, and in slow motion. Easily to 2940, maybe to the 2900 area or lower on the S&P500.

    Still awaiting my L -Income place- I only wish I had a little less in my "I"Fund (currently holding 10%) and more in "F". (Currently at 1%.)

    I may use this month's second move to swap the I and F around, keeping my 73% in "L-Income.

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  9. #893

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    The crystal ball is a bit less fuzzy today.

    I'm seeing the large caps are almost ready to stop falling. My target looks to be 2930 to 2950. If it hits 2950 I am seriously thinking I may jump back in.

    The small caps are more fuzzy. $EMW looks to me now like 1410 to 1400 is likely.

    IF impeachment heats up, then all bets are off, and I would be in uncharted territory.

    Not going to jump in today, but I am watching closely and may move soon.

    good luck.

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  11. #894

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Another thing is hitting my radar- The overnight lending issue is big.

    Here is something from Bloomberg on what I am talking about. This is not normal:

    **********
    Buckle up: Repo Meltdown Shows Budget Deficit Has Limits

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...cit-has-limits

    The repo market madness lives on for a ninth day.

    The Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced Wednesday that it would increase the size of its next overnight system repurchase agreement operation to a $100 billion maximum, from $75 billion previously, and also raise the limit on its 14-day term repo operation to $60 billion from $30 billion. Simply put, the bank wants to flood the funding market with enough cash to soak up all the securities that dealers submit 1 and leave no doubt that the critical financial-system plumbing is in fine working order ahead of the end of the quarter.

    By now, just about everyone has heard the explanations for this persistent liquidity squeeze, which has lasted long enough to refute the earlier notion that it was merely a one-day confluence of unfortunate events. To some, the main structural issue is that banking regulations are disrupting the financial system’s inner workings. Others say the Fed has simply found the lower bound for reserves necessary to control short-term rates and can move forward accordingly.

    In addition to those two assessments, I’d offer another angle that’s largely flown under the radar: The chaos in repo markets was a long time coming given the widening U.S. budget deficits and the lenders that are financing that shortfall.
    the Federal Reserve is having to create money to buy bonds from the Treasury so that the bond auctions don't fail.

    That is not normal, and is dangerously unsustainable in the longer term.





    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

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  13. #895

    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/c...213101573.html

    Something similar is coming home with China's bond markets...See attached. This is on Yahoo this morning so it is hitting "mainstream" news instead of the dedicated financial sources. In many ways that worries me more that the information in the article. As my grandfather always said (he was a newspaper reporter) "Always look behind the headlines, skip the front page, always look under the fold, and then ask yourself what else is known but didn't get written"

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  15. #896

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Mcqlives View Post
    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/c...213101573.html

    Something similar is coming home with China's bond markets...See attached. This is on Yahoo this morning so it is hitting "mainstream" news instead of the dedicated financial sources. In many ways that worries me more that the information in the article. As my grandfather always said (he was a newspaper reporter) "Always look behind the headlines, skip the front page, always look under the fold, and then ask yourself what else is known but didn't get written"
    Very interesting. That one sounds like it's more about construction companies in China, which are about to get hit bad. I have no idea what the world' s economies are going to look like three or four years from now.


    Note: I HOPE- that with the discussion of the changing of the "I" fund tracking, that the TSP Board consider doing this- instead of just switching out the I find index, that maybe they consider doing TWO I Funds- the current one remains as the I fund, and a new fund be created that includes the emerging markets ("E fund?" ) . I think that is a solution to consider.

    Jim

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  17. #897

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    I just reviewed where we are this morning-

    Nothing changes for me. I STILL see further downward movement. We MAY get a slight bounce back on Monday, but I don't see anything saying we've reached the bottom on this oscillation.

    I'm staying in safety. I'm going to TWEAK a little, and take some out of "S" and put more into "F". This is my higher-level safety position.

    77% = L Income
    1% = G
    8% = F
    1% = C
    5% = S
    8% = I

    Just because.

    Have a great weekend.

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  19. #898

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Small Caps are taking a beating today- and that is leading me to believe the blood letting still has a way to go. A long way, possibly.


    I'm seeing S&P 500 fall at least another 1%, with the S&P500 MORE LIKELY THAN NOT to fall below 2910 in the next two sessions.
    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?%24SPX

    Monday COULD be a slight relief, but even if it is, then I think we're headed downwards some more.

    Small Caps also being hit hard- I'm seeing the $EMW (Wilshire Completion Index, close to our "S" fund) heading down more as well, down to below the 200 day moving average at 1391 early next week as well.
    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?%24EMW


    Good luck.

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  21. #899

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Still seeing more bloodshed today. Here's what the Wilshre 4500 completion fund is doing- (S fund)- it's getting clobbered, AND may be crossing a significant threshold today.

    emw-10-02-2019.jpg

    I'm being very cautious (for me, that is unusual) and sitting with most in L-Income and "F" fund as my two biggest holdings right now. Got to sort out where we go moving forward. Today is not a good day to decide what that is going to be.

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  23. #900

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    A BOTTOM?? MAYBE. or maybe not.

    We MAY be close to the bottom here.

    Unless, of course, it's the external factors driving this one down, but it appears that we are now within 10 points of a bottom on the "S" fund's chart.
    I will be watching carefully tomorrow. If if drops slightly, and then solidifies before noon, that is about an even chance that I will risk jumping back in tomorrow. If it drops a large amount, however, I will stay on the sidelines longer. Good luck.

    bottom-call_EMW_10-02-2019.jpg


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