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Thread: James48843 Account Talk

  1. #1333

    Join Date
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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    I’m thinking down 3-5% is due any time now, maybe more.

    27 Oct 2023 was the last pullback in the range your looking at. The average 3-Day -3% pullback is 7.6 a year over the past 5 years which closed positive. But 2017 Closed up 19.42% and had no such 3-Day -3% events.

    Those 5 positive years created 38, 3-Day, -3% events, with an average of -5.46%
    In comparison, the last 5 negative years had 130, 3-Day, -3% events with an average of -4.96%

    My long-winded point, we are going to have less -3% pullbacks during these bull runs, which totally sucks because I'm a bargain hunter and I'm beginning to starve...
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  3. #1334

    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Hampton Roads, VA
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    3,729

    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    I'm guessing the 10% pull back that has been talked about will not materialize given interest rate cuts looming.
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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  5. #1335

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
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    14,685
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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Still no pull back. Strange.

    Here is history of the start of the year, vs. the rest of the year.

    S&P 500 is up almost 10% so far this year, one of the best starts to a year going back all the way to 1928.

    Where will it go next?

    IMG_1879.JPG


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

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