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Thread: James48843 Account Talk

  1. #1057

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Damn. Two days too early. Again. (Shucks)


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  3. #1058

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Ok- what I am seeing now:

    The “S” fund is quite extended for this upward mini cycle. It MAY have one more day, I’d say about a quarter or a half point higher tomorrow. It may go as high as a full percent, but then I think it will end the day at a quarter to a half higher.

    I think then the “C” fund will play catch-up for TWO days, and will top out on Monday.

    Then I am thinking a nice 2-4% pullback is probably due. We’ve run this dog to exhaustion, and it’s got to.be time for a breather.

    But then again- what do I know. None of this makes normal sense.


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  5. #1059

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    My jaw is just dropping, seeing these greater-than-1%- Up days, day after day after day.

    This ISN’T normal.

    This ISN’T responsible.

    There WILL be a reckoning at some point in time.

    In all my years (and I’ve been watching markets since before the crash of 1987) I don’t think I’ve ever seen a market quite as energetically upward without pause, as what we have had since the November 3rd election.

    America likes a winner, and America likes stability, and America likes predictability.

    We don’t yet have an answer on point #1; and we certainly don’t have widespread stability on point #2; and there is NO predictability as to what the market is going to look like- what the economy is going to look like, in three months. Or six months.

    So why is everybody buying right now? Is this just a huge bubble building up?

    (((Sigh)))

    I’m enjoying the gains, but I’m starting to sweat bullets that someday soon, the brakes are going to get pressed, just when we least expect it.

    I’m still in.

    (We are 57 seconds into this ride, I think)

    https://youtu.be/oAJLKDMihnU


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  7. #1060

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Hopefully we can jump to the lily pad before we sustain too much damage.
    May the force be with us.

  8.  
  9. #1061

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Capitulation.

    That's my word of the day.

    I gave up and moved everything- 100%-- into the S fund.

    No words.

  10.  
  11. #1062

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Wow, just as some folks are moving out! Not me, not yet...
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!


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  13. #1063

    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Right now I feel like we're picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.

  14.  
  15. #1064

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Looks like the professionals are still in heavy too - NAAIM up from 79 to 110. VIX is still very low. Hopefully the steam roller is going slow and we will see it pick up speed in time to jump to the lily pad.

  16.  
  17. #1065

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    Capitulation.

    That's my word of the day.

    I gave up and moved everything- 100%-- into the S fund.

    No words.
    Good luck man. I like your moxie ... and have this irritating feeling I may be envying you in a few days or a week -- hell, maybe even two weeks or more -- because I'm still sitting fairly light 25S/15C.

  18.  
  19. #1066

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    Default James48843 Account Talk

    So, here us a question.

    How much is “enough”?

    I’m sitting here, absorbing every last drop of upside movement I can on this S fund anomaly (yes, I think it’s an anomaly. There really isn’t the earnings growth to support this much movement upwards in the s fund.).

    I’m 60 years old and have now retired.

    I don’t expect to last except maybe to 74 or so, if I’m extremely lucky. 72 is probably about right. If I’m fortunate.

    I’m obese, have a host of medical issues- heart disease, high blood pressure, and if I get a few years to do things, I’ll be happy. I KNOW I am never going to be 85 years old.

    So how much is “enough”?

    I’m taking $1,000 a month right now from the TSP, on top of my roughly $4k pension income. On paper it looks like I COULD be taking like 7 or 8 k per month, and not run out of money. I have now $1,165,000 in TSP and it’s growing, not shrinking, at this point.

    But I don’t feel like that yet. I’m still thinking I need to scrimp pennies and save for later.

    How do you know when it’s time to spend some if that ?


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  21. #1067

    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Maybe start with 4% annual withdraw rate and adjust as needed?

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  23. #1068

    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Maybe start with a 4% annual withdraw rate and adjust as needed?

  24.  
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