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Thread: James48843 Account Talk

  1. #1057

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Damn. Two days too early. Again. (Shucks)


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  3. #1058

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Ok- what I am seeing now:

    The ďSĒ fund is quite extended for this upward mini cycle. It MAY have one more day, Iíd say about a quarter or a half point higher tomorrow. It may go as high as a full percent, but then I think it will end the day at a quarter to a half higher.

    I think then the ďCĒ fund will play catch-up for TWO days, and will top out on Monday.

    Then I am thinking a nice 2-4% pullback is probably due. Weíve run this dog to exhaustion, and itís got to.be time for a breather.

    But then again- what do I know. None of this makes normal sense.


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  5. #1059

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    My jaw is just dropping, seeing these greater-than-1%- Up days, day after day after day.

    This ISNíT normal.

    This ISNíT responsible.

    There WILL be a reckoning at some point in time.

    In all my years (and Iíve been watching markets since before the crash of 1987) I donít think Iíve ever seen a market quite as energetically upward without pause, as what we have had since the November 3rd election.

    America likes a winner, and America likes stability, and America likes predictability.

    We donít yet have an answer on point #1; and we certainly donít have widespread stability on point #2; and there is NO predictability as to what the market is going to look like- what the economy is going to look like, in three months. Or six months.

    So why is everybody buying right now? Is this just a huge bubble building up?

    (((Sigh)))

    Iím enjoying the gains, but Iím starting to sweat bullets that someday soon, the brakes are going to get pressed, just when we least expect it.

    Iím still in.

    (We are 57 seconds into this ride, I think)

    https://youtu.be/oAJLKDMihnU


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  7. #1060

    Join Date
    Apr 2008
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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Hopefully we can jump to the lily pad before we sustain too much damage.
    May the force be with us.

  8.  
  9. #1061

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Capitulation.

    That's my word of the day.

    I gave up and moved everything- 100%-- into the S fund.

    No words.

  10.  
  11. #1062

    Join Date
    Mar 2012
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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Wow, just as some folks are moving out! Not me, not yet...
    Life is good!


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  13. #1063

    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Right now I feel like we're picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.

  14.  
  15. #1064

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Looks like the professionals are still in heavy too - NAAIM up from 79 to 110. VIX is still very low. Hopefully the steam roller is going slow and we will see it pick up speed in time to jump to the lily pad.

  16.  
  17. #1065

    Join Date
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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    Capitulation.

    That's my word of the day.

    I gave up and moved everything- 100%-- into the S fund.

    No words.
    Good luck man. I like your moxie ... and have this irritating feeling I may be envying you in a few days or a week -- hell, maybe even two weeks or more -- because I'm still sitting fairly light 25S/15C.

  18.  
  19. #1066

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    Default James48843 Account Talk

    So, here us a question.

    How much is ďenoughĒ?

    Iím sitting here, absorbing every last drop of upside movement I can on this S fund anomaly (yes, I think itís an anomaly. There really isnít the earnings growth to support this much movement upwards in the s fund.).

    Iím 60 years old and have now retired.

    I donít expect to last except maybe to 74 or so, if Iím extremely lucky. 72 is probably about right. If Iím fortunate.

    Iím obese, have a host of medical issues- heart disease, high blood pressure, and if I get a few years to do things, Iíll be happy. I KNOW I am never going to be 85 years old.

    So how much is ďenoughĒ?

    Iím taking $1,000 a month right now from the TSP, on top of my roughly $4k pension income. On paper it looks like I COULD be taking like 7 or 8 k per month, and not run out of money. I have now $1,165,000 in TSP and itís growing, not shrinking, at this point.

    But I donít feel like that yet. Iím still thinking I need to scrimp pennies and save for later.

    How do you know when itís time to spend some if that ?


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  21. #1067

    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Maybe start with 4% annual withdraw rate and adjust as needed?

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  23. #1068

    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Maybe start with a 4% annual withdraw rate and adjust as needed?

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