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Thread: James48843 Account Talk

  1. #973

    Join Date
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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Too late for your decision today, just something to bounce against. I'm kinda like Mamikin (congrats, I gave ya your 1st "like") as too close to Rtmt (2yrs) & I'm pretty conservative; approaching $3/4M & don't wanna lose a bunch in the big drop I'm sure will come w/in 2-years.
    So, I was in up above my knees with a mix if CSIL's, 20%F, the rest in G; did IFT Jan 30th pulled 8%F & all but my feet in the rest - back to G. Today, went back "in" mix of funds up to my knees +8% back to F (mostly sitting on G-pad).
    My thoughts (no expert here, I combine lot's of what y'all share)... Fridays have been down lately some, yesterday's mixed results are with that to me; I too think the China-flu scare is over-hyped & over next week or so market will shrug-it; F is looking pretty good (yields bear-flag) + will go up if equities drop (safety play); per Coolhand & Tom, this wacky-market still leaning bullish, breadth & other indicators looking OK, volumns increased a little from the few-days of slump. There's some risk of an event over long-weekend but I figured, buy in when a little "low" today (my guess) and hope for some gains in 1st 2-3 days next week, see how it looks & maybe us 2nd IFT to pop-out if things don't look good.

    Best of luck w/your decision James...

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  3. #974

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    My nose is twitching. Used my 2nd IFT to move to 60% ="G", 25%=F, and then the remaining 15% into the L-Income fund.

    Good luck. (Hand me a klenex).

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  5. #975

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Ahhh. Ahhhh...Aahhhhhh CHOOO!


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

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  7. #976

    Join Date
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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    Ahhh. Ahhhh...Aahhhhhh CHOOO!


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
    bless you. Keep those funds safe. Working on a slight cold myself. Don't forget to wash your hands. Do you prefer Kleenex or Puffs? I like Puffs.
    May the force be with us.

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  9. #977

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Ok- looking quickly at the charts this morning, Iím seeing a minor resistance point on the S&P500 to be located at around 3080, and, if that doesnít hold, the next major resistance point downward is located at around 2950-2975.

    The uptick in overnight futures is definitely a fake-out. Not yet the time to jump back in. Iím out of moves for the month. THIS is where I WISH I had a third move. I donít know if the opportunity will stretch into March, but it is possible.


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  11. #978

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk


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  13. #979

    Join Date
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    Boiled Peanut, Georgia, USA
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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Think " fill the gap @ 2950"!!
    07/07/2020
    LS CRUDE Oil
    =$40.62 a Barrel, Daily Status -$.81

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  15. #980

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by nnuut View Post
    Think " fill the gap @ 2950"!!
    Iím pretty confident (65-70%) that your words will be obeyed, but itís not going to happen for a couple of days, I think. This downward cycle is going to be a rather large one, because the trip up higher was longer than usual.




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  17. #981

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Ok- so here is a strange question-

    Do you think the software programmers were smart enough to remember the fact that February of 2020 is a leap year and has 29 days?

    Or do you think they built into the system that February always ends with 28 days? (And unexpectedly give a one-day early new set of moves in the TSP? )

    There is a high likelihood that the software timer is built on the month, and not the day field, so that we wonít get an early bonus.

    There is also an equal chance that the software programmers programmed in the concept of leap year.

    However, there is a small chance they may have built the software to think February always has 28 days.


    I think I will make a try on the 29th just to see what happens. Iím out of moves now, but Iíll be curious to probe and learn characteristics of software design for future use.


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  19. #982

    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    The 29th is a Saturday. Wouldn't that be COB 3/2 anyway?

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  21. #983

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    The 29th is a Saturday. Wouldn't that be COB 3/2 anyway?
    This time. The question is whether it will let me do it. Normally it doesnít ďunlockĒ until the last day of the month. It is unlocks it on Friday the 28th, Iíll know for the next Leap year.

    I guess you have a point- maybe it doesnít unlock on the last day trading of the month, it may know that the next trading day is the next month.

    Dang, I thought I was going to get a tidbit of knowledge that might huge me an advantage in leap years. I guess not.

    Anyway- Tom, you once said I have tiny bit of intuition on the future sometimes- - Iím thinking this one is screaming at me to stay away for a while. Itís not on the scale of the 2008 screams, but it is pretty loud in my psyche. This is saying itís a good time to stay in safety for a while while things work themselves out . Good luck.


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  23. #984

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    Default James48843 Account Talk

    Ok- my thoughts as we approach the close today with more than 4% down:

    This is very much on track with what I am expecting. We were climbing up for so long - we are on a high roller coaster ride. I Expect the S&P tomorrow to get down between 2950 and 2900 to fill an old gap, as Nnuutt pointed out. Heís very much on track with my thinking. Whether that is the end of the fall, Iím not sure. Too hazy.

    I think we MAY have a little bounce tomorrow, but even if we do, I predict next week will shed anything we get back in a weekend bounce, and we will slide down a little more next week. I think the MAJORITY of this hit is about over, but I donít know what will happen a week from now, especially if the virus shows up big time in the US. It COULD be the case, so Iím going to play it more cautious than I usually do, and say that I am definitely NOT planning to jump back into stocks before at least the end of next week, if then.

    The good news is ó I looked at my account today, and Iím actually up $2,000 since the middle of last week, thanks to power from the F FUND. For the first time In a while, Iím hitting this one correctly. Thank you Lord for watching over my retirement plans.

    Predictions:

    1 soft bottoming at 2980ish. .

    2. Firmer resistance 2925-2931. Maybe tomorrow.

    3 hard resistance 2790.

    If it breaks through 2790 we will be in a bear market for a while. I do not see indications of a bear market yet. I only see some panic and fear from some of the less experienced hands. The experienced money is sitting on the sidelines waiting for the smoke to clear a little. Good buying opportunities ahead.

    Patience pays.

    For the week, as if the close today, we are down a total of just about (-11.0%) off last week. Nice pullback, and now we wait to see if the bloodletting is close to being over.

    What to watch for next few days:
    1. More virus bad news ( market goes down)
    2. South Carolina Primary Tuesday. If Biden wins big, market breathes and may bounce slightly. If Bernie wins big, market gets scared again. If they tie, no effect on market.
    3. If Fed suddenly drops a half point interest rates, then that should steady markets a bit and I may try to play the bounce.



    Good luck.


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    Last edited by James48843; 02-27-2020 at 03:14 PM.

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