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Thread: James48843 Account Talk

  1. #961

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Well, so much for my thoughts yesterday that we'd have a 75% chance of moving higher today.

    I need to shut my mouth more often. it jinxes things.

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  3. #962

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    ok Folks- let's hear your opinions-

    I am thinking about moving to "F" fund today- because:

    #1. This is about to be a THREE DAY WEEKEND, and the next opportunity to do anything won't be until next Tuesday at noon.

    #2. The "coronivius 2019" is continuing to grow, and the data coming out of China is suddenly changing slightly. Yesterday they posted laboratory confirmed number of cases, BUT they then said there are a LOT more cases that have been diagnosed, but not lab test results yet. Which means the numbers are going to continue to go UP UP UP over the next week.

    #3. The stock market has already gone up over 4% in both the C and S funds this month. It is HIGHLY unusual for the funds to move MORE than 4% in a month- so I think it is prudent to capture gains now and move to a more relative safety.


    On the flip side:
    #1. There is a case to be made that the momentum continues to be positive.

    #2. The charts are showing we're in the early stages of the next wave higher, which means it is very possible to get a full 1 or 2% higher from here, without much difficulty.

    #3. If I expend the 2nd trade of the month now, I can't get BACK into stocks until next month.


    What are YOUR thoughts? Why should I move to "F" from stocks, or NOT move to "F" from stocks?

    Bonus- make an argument for why "F" would not be where I want to be, and that I should make it "G" instead.


    What do you think? What should I do- Let it ride? Move to "F"? Move to "G" ? Or what, and why?

    I want YOUR 2 cents- !

    Go!

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  5. #963

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    You should follow the DOODA System... Do the Opposite Of Dreamboat Annie! lol..

    Okay... maybe reduce exposure to equities to a comfortable level. I'm thinking about it and you made some great points! F fund still looks good. I fund did not pan out so I am exiting my 20% today...probably will put some in F. C and S do look scary because they are so high, just not sure about exiting today....still debating as I did just get in. Best wishes to you James!!
    CURRENT: 5/29/2020 40%S-10%I-50%G //. Prior: 5/6/20=G100 // 4/30/20=25G-25F-25S-25C // Chart Links=Page 241-242, posts#2892-2894, older ones Page 215, #2575-76


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  7. #964

    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Well, I've never done well trying to time entries into the F Fund and my best results come from following the trend. For me that means I'm still sticking with Equities. I've been looking for an exit but haven't jumped yet. I came close to getting out toward the end of January but stayed in because I don't day trade and would have gotten right back in again on Jan 31 to be in for February. I would have come out ahead on that trade but like I said I do better looking at longer term trends and am sticking with that for now.

    As for the coronavirus, I still think it's media overblown hype -- especially when you compare the numbers to the flu. On top of that Inovio pharmaceuticals claims to have developed a vaccine within 3 hours of aquiring the strain: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronav...-drug-testing/

    As for the 4% return in February I think at least half of that is a recovery from January's loss. Just look at January last year. That was a huge return but really only a recovery from December's massive sell-off.

    My 2 cents worth.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2019 27.97%, 2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%,5Yr Avg 8.35%

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  9. #965

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    I'm following plan #57662 on TSPcalc, although my numbers don't match what they say I should have when I compare my Autotracker numbers to theirs and I don't know why. According to the plan, I should move my money to "F" on the 12th trading day of the month, so I'll submit an IFT on the 18th to be in the "f" fund as of the 12th trading day (the TSP is closed for President's Day).

    https://www.tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=57662

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  11. #966

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by rangerray View Post
    I'm following plan #57662 on TSPcalc, although my numbers don't match what they say I should have when I compare my Autotracker numbers to theirs and I don't know why. According to the plan, I should move my money to "F" on the 12th trading day of the month, so I'll submit an IFT on the 18th to be in the "f" fund as of the 12th trading day (the TSP is closed for President's Day).

    https://www.tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=57662
    Wow. I never heard of that website before. That is certainly interesting. How long have you been following that, and how is it doing for you?

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  13. #967

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    I played with it last year, but I didn't make my moves in the TSP according to it's plan. I sort of looked at what it suggested and fused it with info gathered on this site and "gut feeling." It's plan beat my returns.

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  15. #968

    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Hi! I'm certainly no expert, and I pay attention to many of you who know a lot more than I do!

    With that being said, I"ve never understood the need to throw all of my TSP funds in one particular fund. I tend to like mixed ratios of x% in stocks, x% in F or G. I prefer F for safety over G and have done fairly well in it, except for a brief period last fall when I did lose money. I'm not in the autotracker but TSP website says I have over 7% PIP for the past year. Certainly not as good as the 22% plus in C, but less risk as I am nearing retirement, and I'll take it.

    So why not consider leaving a portion in stocks, while moving some to F?

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  17. #969

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Of course you could do a partial move to F while leaving some in equities. That way you are covered whichever way it goes and then if the need arises because everything just went Tango Uniform, move to G. Don't think I would waste an IFT with a move to G just yet. Just another thought...
    I pride myself on the fact that I will never have a cheesy "uplifting" quote in my signature block...Ever!

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  19. #970

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    I think I might go chew on a bat or something.
    Any first hand recommendations?
    Very yummy
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  21. #971

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Thanks all for the input.

    I've decided not to touch it today. Probably should have gone to "F", but I'm gonna let it ride. Have a great weekend!

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  23. #972

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Sorry James,

    When I clicked on your thread the discussion was on coronavirus. It put me a page or two back and I decided to provide a very informative reply!!!

    Anyway, I am in the camp of moving some into G/F. I've been holding about 40% in G/F for some time. The growth in equities has made it a 65/35 split currently. That means that a quick dump will be buffered and a quick pump will provide a decent chunk to my retirement. Not a win/lose zero sum game...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!


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