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Thread: James48843 Account Talk

  1. #937

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    I would say it depends on whether you're talking about buy and hold = 100% stocks or being diversified in F and G as well, and that would be considered rebalancing as long as they stay constant - or close to it. Because changing those percentages, wouldn't really be considered buy and hold, but rather market timing.



    The reason I say that is that nasa wouldn't have had a 13% loss in 2008 being fully invested. With C, S, and I losing 37%, 38%, and 42% respectively that year, that means there was some market timing / skill involved and that is not buying and holding. Capitulating to a buy and hold after a 12 year bull market sounds toppy to me.

    Those negative 30% plus years, and we've had a few - although not for 12 years, can kill an account.
    True there's still some timing involved. I'm not talking about an absolute hold through everything. But there's lots of little ups and downs here and there that are probably better held through, especially when you look at the big charts showing 10 years, which is that time frame I'm looking at until I retire. Obviously if there was big drops on the horizon or starting I would try to be out during those times, as I'm sure NASA was.

    Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
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    Thru-hike the Appalachian trail spring 2029

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  3. #938

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Wow. I just read this article on the Daily Mail. The Wohan “Fish Market” where this virus supposedly started is actually just 20 miles from the NEW Chinese biological lab intended to study super-highly contagious bugs. I did not realize this until last night.

    Link: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7922379/Chinas-lab-studying-SARS-Ebola-Wuhan-outbreaks-center.html

    Has me much, much more concerned than I was yesterday about the nature of this bug.

    I’m going to MOPP-4 and bugging out to “G”, until I get a better idea what’s really going on.

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  5. #939

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    Wow. I just read this article on the Daily Mail. The Wohan “Fish Market” where this virus supposedly started is actually just 20 miles from the NEW Chinese biological lab intended to study super-highly contagious bugs. I did not realize this until last night.

    Link: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...ks-center.html

    Has me much, much more concerned than I was yesterday about the nature of this bug.

    I’m going to MOPP-4 and bugging out to “G”, until I get a better idea what’s really going on.
    Reminds me of the story of Lyme disease starting on a little island off of Long island, after an escape from a government lab.

    Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
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    Thru-hike the Appalachian trail spring 2029

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  7. #940

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    Default James48843 Account Talk

    I just did a wild guess WAG on the math.

    At the current rate of growth, the current 5,000+ confirmed sick is expanding- DOUBLING every two days (for the last 8 days).

    At this rate, it will be more than 100,000 in just 9 days from now. And a million a week later. And at the moment the bulk of those Ill are in the most populous nation on earth.

    Do you remember the 1971 movie “The Andromeda Strain”?

    https://youtu.be/TL3LXKanzds

    Go find it and watch it. Today.

    The clock is ticking.

    I’m moving to G.


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  9. #941

    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    And don’t forget the hospital is being run by the military. My point is that all official information is “washed” before we get it. Truth is probably somewhere between the official numbers and way under the social media scare posts but that’s still a huge window.

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  11. #942

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    The attached image was from 4 days ago. So far the spread is tracking the projection perfectly, with the latest numbers from about 12 hours ago being over 6,000 cases and 132 dead.
    By this Sunday the numbers could really be getting scary if it keeps up.

    Coronavirus.jpg

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  13. #943

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    The attached image was from 4 days ago. So far the spread is tracking the projection perfectly, with the latest numbers from about 12 hours ago being over 6,000 cases and 132 dead.
    By this Sunday the numbers could really be getting scary if it keeps up.

    Coronavirus.jpg
    Who came up with that? It’s going to be interesting to watch. I’m impressed.


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  15. #944

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    I heard that China had the gnome on this bug about two weeks into the outbreak. Interesting. Australia has already isolated the virus and is working on how to get rid of it and a Boston firm is starting to produce an antivirus shot for this. The news report said it was already tested on animals. More interesting.

    Now just to find out how much of this is true and not just some conspiracy theory
    May the force be with us.

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  17. #945

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    I got it from here: Cobra's Market View ? View topic - 01/25/2020 Weekend Update The poster just said it was "from Twitter".

    Here's a stock market projection from that blog from 2 days ago and it's the scenario I'm hoping for.
    The wave B rally should be capped at around 3295 today, then comes wave C down into the 3100's. If not, then the bottom is already in.

    Wave 4.JPG


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  19. #946

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    I just did a wild guess WAG on the math.

    At the current rate of growth, the current 5,000+ confirmed sick is expanding- DOUBLING every two days (for the last 8 days).

    At this rate, it will be more than 100,000 in just 9 days from now. And a million a week later. And at the moment the bulk of those Ill are in the most populous nation on earth.

    Do you remember the 1971 movie “The Andromeda Strain”?

    https://youtu.be/TL3LXKanzds

    Go find it and watch it. Today.

    The clock is ticking.

    I’m moving to G.


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
    It's unfortunately panic not substantiated by evidence. It's much less deadly than the flu and most people will just get sick from it. I predict even as it spreads as they see and realize how low percentage of deaths is, and it really is a lower percentage than the flu, and things will settle down.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...se/4564133002/
    Expected FERS Retirement; December 2028
    Thru-hike the Appalachian trail spring 2029

  20.  
  21. #947

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tom4jean View Post
    It's unfortunately panic not substantiated by evidence. It's much less deadly than the flu and most people will just get sick from it. I predict even as it spreads as they see and realize how low percentage of deaths is, and it really is a lower percentage than the flu, and things will settle down.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...se/4564133002/
    Yep, agree 100%. Over 8,200 deaths in the U.S. from the flu so far this year, and yet it gets very little media attention since people are used to hearing about it I guess. I had a horrible flu 2 years ago, so bad I thought it might be the end of me one horrible night. At this point I'm much more concerned about the flu than coronavirus.

    https://thehill.com/changing-america...ater-threat-to

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  23. #948

    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    increases in the number flu shots has increased the numbers of people getting the flu.
    "Our Constitution was made only for a Moral and Religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the goverment of any other." John Adams 10/11/1798

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