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Thread: James48843 Account Talk

  1. #925

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    I'm sitting here looking at the charts.

    Darn nice climb the last three weeks. I'm thinking it's time for a breather, but I don't know if it's going to be a soft short pause, or a hard trip down.

    I'm still in, because I already used my two moves for the month. If I had a third or a fourth, I would be moving probably towards the "F" fund with part of my cash. But I don't have any more moves this month, so the only place I can go is to G, if I wanted to.

    I'm going to hang a little longer and see what direction the markets go. It still has a lot of momentum higher. The key will be if the markets blow off all the hubbub about politics, and if the economy is able to churn a little longer. I'm seeing a few signs (Like the trucking softness on shipping the last several months, and watching the housing and auto industries closely). Those signs tell me a recession is ahead- but I just can't tell how soon.

    Here are the charts I am looking at today:

    The "S" Fund is showing a LONG stretch upward. Maybe time for a break.

    15-x-2020.jpg

    Same thing is showing on the P&F Chart of the S&P500 (C Fund). We've had a long trip up (15 X's) and it may be time to break.

    SPX_Huge-stretch-breather-jan-2020.jpg

    And finally, the conventional candlestick chart of the S&P500 (C Fund) also showing that weakness today.
    But the overall trend is still upward, so I am thinking that in a day or two, it may resume the upward climb. We just have to watch and see.
    S&P_Large-jan-2020-stretch.png


    Good luck. I'm paying close attention this week and got my fingers crossed.

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  3. #926

    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    So I saw this movie last night- for the first time ever.

    "THE BIG SHORT".

    Saw it on PLUTO TV.

    If you haven't seen it, I highly recommend it. It was both very insightful, AND funny, in a dry-humor kind of way- just the way I like my humor.
    What took you so long?

  4.  
  5. #927

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Big signal in my face and I missed it. Iím scared. Anxietyó> fear. Iím thinking big drop already started and I missed the signs last week. Iím moving to G today.


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums


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  7. #928

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Changed my mind. Iím canceling transfer. May be making a huge mistake by canceling, but todayís strength more than I expected.

  8.  
  9. #929

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    Changed my mind. Iím canceling transfer. May be making a huge mistake by canceling, but todayís strength more than I expected.
    Great minds think alike, I did the exact same thing. I tried to get out on Friday but missed the cutoff time by seconds. I waited over the weekend to see what was going to happen with the market before I cancelled. Ultimately I decided that I tend to panic and I get out too many times when things go south, and I end up losing every time. I'm riding it out and hoping it goes back up, which it always does if you wait long enough James48843 Account Talk

    Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
    Expected FERS Retirement; December 2028
    The Avatar is my Hammarlund SP-600 1950's Navy Communications Receiver.
    (Although, I was in the Army)

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  11. #930

    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    I'm trying to strap on a pair of ol' Birchtree's sticky pants, but it's more gut wrenching when you get closer to retirement. Might need some Depends underneath the sticky pants.. Just hoping the bottom doesn't drop out right before the close.

    Quote Originally Posted by tom4jean View Post
    Great minds think alike, I did the exact same thing. I tried to get out on Friday but missed the cutoff time by seconds. I waited over the weekend to see what was going to happen with the market before I cancelled. Ultimately I decided that I tend to panic and I get out too many times when things go south, and I end up losing every time. I'm riding it out and hoping it goes back up, which it always does if you wait long enough James48843 Account Talk

    Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

  12.  
  13. #931

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by jonfresno View Post
    I'm trying to strap on a pair of ol' Birchtree's sticky pants, but it's more gut wrenching when you get closer to retirement. Might need some Depends underneath the sticky pants.. Just hoping the bottom doesn't drop out right before the close.
    It does get scary as you get closer to retirement. It all depends on how aggressive you want to be. Being CSRS I convinced myself it's ok to be aggressive. Not to say I haven't had good and bad years. But I have had more good years than bad. Since 2004 I have only had 3 negative years. For the positive years 3 were single digit and 10 were double digit. My biggest loss being almost 13% negative. My best year just over 33% positive. I retired in 2012 and have stayed aggressive. It all comes down to what you are comfortable with. But I do like the idea of a pair of depends under the sticky pants. Makes clean up a bit easier.
    May the force be with us.

  14.  
  15. #932

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by nasa1974 View Post
    It does get scary as you get closer to retirement. It all depends on how aggressive you want to be. Being CSRS I convinced myself it's ok to be aggressive. Not to say I haven't had good and bad years. But I have had more good years than bad. Since 2004 I have only had 3 negative years. For the positive years 3 were single digit and 10 were double digit. My biggest loss being almost 13% negative. My best year just over 33% positive. I retired in 2012 and have stayed aggressive. It all comes down to what you are comfortable with. But I do like the idea of a pair of depends under the sticky pants. Makes clean up a bit easier.
    Nasa,

    Thanks for posting this. It caused me to look back at my own performance since I retired in 2011. If I were to evaluate my investment strategy, I would say I have been on the "very cautious, conservative" side of investing. That is until I looked at the results. Since 2011 I have added over 25% to my TSP account, with the only year negative (-7.36%) in 2015. Granted my numbers will never be at the top of autotracker, but your post has made me realize that I have done very well for not a lot of risk.

    Thanks
    I pride myself on the fact that I will never have a cheesy "uplifting" quote in my signature block...Ever!

  16.  
  17. #933

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by nasa1974 View Post
    It does get scary as you get closer to retirement. It all depends on how aggressive you want to be. Being CSRS I convinced myself it's ok to be aggressive. Not to say I haven't had good and bad years. But I have had more good years than bad. Since 2004 I have only had 3 negative years. For the positive years 3 were single digit and 10 were double digit. My biggest loss being almost 13% negative. My best year just over 33% positive. I retired in 2012 and have stayed aggressive. It all comes down to what you are comfortable with. But I do like the idea of a pair of depends under the sticky pants. Makes clean up a bit easier. James48843 Account Talk
    NASA From reading your past posts you appear to generally buy and hold throughout the years, just changing up your percentages, would that be correct? I have 10 years to go in the Federal service and I'm seriously thinking about doing that. It worked for Warren Buffet

    Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
    Expected FERS Retirement; December 2028
    The Avatar is my Hammarlund SP-600 1950's Navy Communications Receiver.
    (Although, I was in the Army)

  18.  
  19. #934

    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tom4jean View Post
    NASA From reading your past posts you appear to generally buy and hold throughout the years, just changing up your percentages, would that be correct? I have 10 years to go in the Federal service and I'm seriously thinking about doing that. It worked for Warren Buffet
    I would say it depends on whether you're talking about buy and hold = 100% stocks or being diversified in F and G as well, and that would be considered rebalancing as long as they stay constant - or close to it. Because changing those percentages, wouldn't really be considered buy and hold, but rather market timing.

    Quote Originally Posted by nasa1974 View Post
    My biggest loss being almost 13% negative.
    The reason I say that is that nasa wouldn't have had a 13% loss in 2008 being fully invested. With C, S, and I losing 37%, 38%, and 42% respectively that year, that means there was some market timing / skill involved and that is not buying and holding. Capitulating to a buy and hold after a 12 year bull market sounds toppy to me.

    Those negative 30% plus years, and we've had a few - although not for 12 years, can kill an account.

  20.  
  21. #935

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tom4jean View Post
    NASA From reading your past posts you appear to generally buy and hold throughout the years, just changing up your percentages, would that be correct? I have 10 years to go in the Federal service and I'm seriously thinking about doing that. It worked for Warren Buffet

    Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
    I do spend most of my time in the "S" fund. I don't make a lot of IFT's a year but I move in and out of other funds to try and limit my losses and improve my gains. Not always successfully. Currently I'm 50/50 C/S. Until this coronavirus scare I wasn't doing too bad. Believe me this is more luck than skill. Being CSRS I'm not really dependent on my TSP like the FERS folks are since I do have a full pension. With that said I sure don't want to tank my account either. Again this isn't for everybody and it just depends on how much risk you are comfortable with.
    I honestly believe that 2 IFT's a month hurt us more than helps us. If we could convince the FRTIB to give us 4 IFT's a month we would all be in a much better position. Good luck.
    May the force be with us.

  22.  
  23. #936

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by ravensfan View Post
    Nasa,

    Thanks for posting this. It caused me to look back at my own performance since I retired in 2011. If I were to evaluate my investment strategy, I would say I have been on the "very cautious, conservative" side of investing. That is until I looked at the results. Since 2011 I have added over 25% to my TSP account, with the only year negative (-7.36%) in 2015. Granted my numbers will never be at the top of autotracker, but your post has made me realize that I have done very well for not a lot of risk.

    Thanks
    Your welcome.

    This is why this site is so great. It allows us to see what other people are doing and why and then to evaluate what we are doing to improve. Folks like (and I'm going to forget a few) coolhand, bquat, whipsaw, DreamboatAnnie and others post all kinds of charts and information that help us make decisions, educate us and makes us want to get more informed. Let's hope 2020 can be a positive year for all of us.
    May the force be with us.


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