Thread: James48843 Account Talk

James, you are one of the few people around here who have the courage to p!ss into the wind. I could not pay a higher complement, you are a treasure.

Originally Posted by JTH

James, you are one of the few people around here who have the courage to p!ss into the wind. I could not pay a higher complement, you are a treasure.

Some days you eat the bear. And some days the bear eats you.

Looks like "SPIDEY SENSE" was accurate.

Stocks down over 1% today- and NASDAQ down over 2%.


Good thing I bailed when I did!

Looking at the charts, and thinking to myself we're getting closer to a reentry point.

Patience young grasshopper.

Ok- we're just over 4% off where we were a couple weeks ago on the S&P500.

Is that enough sold off? Or is there more still to go?

My charts all tell me we're not quite finished yet on this down-stroke cycle. But we could be getting close. A couple days ago I was thinking more like around a 5 to 8% decline was in store. We're down 4% now. So just a little more and we're at 5% off the recent high.

On the other hand, earnings reports is what triggered some of this selloff. I saw a graphic today that said something along the lines of 35% of stocks this quarter have beat estimates, but 60% have fallen short. If true, and if that holds, that's a pretty significant change, and does not bode well for the shorter-term to mid term.

So....what do you think?

Are we close to a reversal again, and another run higher?


Or are we going to take a pause now for a while- maybe till after the election, and maybe even into the Christmas season, before we turn around again?


What are YOUR thoughts? And why?

Originally Posted by James48843

What are YOUR thoughts? And why?

Short term - I think tomorrow will be slightly down because today scared people and they want proof or confirmation were at the bottom before they buy. Thursday will be slightly up as day traders realize we have had 5 down days in a row and are do for an up day. Friday will be up over 1% as everyone feel's they have their confirmation and don't want to be left out for the weekend.

Interim - I think we walk into the voting booth on November 6th with the S&P at 1425 (+/- 5), basically flat. The first two weeks of November are usually slightly down, but it's and election year and I think their will be manipulation. Also we just loss 4% as you pointed out.

Long term - It's forth quarter baby, BUY BUY BUY.

Just answering your question based on nothing but my gut.

FYI- Tom has not let me go visit the political page. Just as well- I gotta stay out of that if I want to keep my heart healthy. I get too wound up over that stuff.

Since I'm supposed to talk about investments instead, I would just point out that:

Barack's re-election INTRADE shares are now bouncing back in the "INTRADE" investment market- now climbing --at $6.20 a share .

Intrade - Markets

That's right- you can buy a share of the re-election for $6.20 a share.

Originally Posted by ILoveTDs

Short term - I think tomorrow will be slightly down because today scared people and they want proof or confirmation were at the bottom before they buy. Thursday will be slightly up as day traders realize we have had 5 down days in a row and are do for an up day. Friday will be up over 1% as everyone feel's they have their confirmation and don't want to be left out for the weekend.

So James - I got my Wednesday and Thursday, do I get my 1% tomorrow or does AAPL kill me?

Originally Posted by ILoveTDs

So James - I got my Wednesday and Thursday, do I get my 1% tomorrow or does AAPL kill me?

We'll know about 4 p.m. eastern time. Good luck!


(SP futures down right now.

http://www.forexpros.com/indices/us-spx-500-futures

Im still thinking lower tomorrow. We'll see what happens.)

I am very happy with what I am seeing this morning. I was concerned after Hurricane Sandy that the markets were going to react badly to the 50 billion or so damage on the east coast. But it appears that even though we took a punch, the markets are very resillient today.

So, unless something changes drastically before noon today, I will probably move OUT of the safety of where I have had 50 % in G and 30% in F, and move everything today BACK into stocks. Not sure yet of the allocation- but it will include some "I" fund, that's for sure. Not sure whether to go with 'S" or "C" for moving back in. Going to watch it today until just before noon, and then chart what looks best going forward for me.


I'm diving in today. Wish me luck.

swan_dive.jpg

Good luck James!

You may be right, but I'm skeptical of this rally and think there will be one more drop to a more solid low per this scenario:
SPX: Follow Up of the Short Term EWP | The wave trading
Then I'll take the plunge too for the remainder of the year most likely.