Thread: Squalebear's Account Talk

Originally Posted by camper65

I FEEL YOUR PAIN!

Thats bone pain from the cold weather in Maine (LoL)

SB, thank for the condiments. I'll be grilling on the lilly pad, just to the right.

It's gonna take time to adjust to the new rulez and develope a better
feel for the market. My first lesson was patience. I want to check out
what the "Best Last Month Method" has to say about May (so far) and
keep a closer eye on it for June too.

It's been said that the more people in the (G) could make for some better
returns in equities. Maybe, but we're joining the money on the sidelines for
only a few days. Maybe we can avoid some down days until our freedom
to enter is restored. Hopefully, the market will drop another 500 points in
the meantime and we can catch a glorious rebound. My expectations are
low until the end of August, but, we can still squeek out enough green to
justify our moves.

Note: For the first time this year, the (I) Fund was overpaid. I state in the
key that this is rare. However, I have not eliminated the possibility of this
being a transition into the opposite direction. Specifically, more Blue then
Red on a daily basis, but still continuing to reach its goal of single digits.

EFA vs TSP (I) DEFICIT:
(5/12/08) +.258% -0.05 tsp cents
(5/13/08) - .324% -0.13 tsp cents
(5/14/08) +.292% -0.06 tsp cents
(5/15/08) - .079% -0.08 tsp cents
(5/16/08) - .099% -0.10 tsp cents

(5/19/08) +.408%-+0.00 tsp cents
(5/20/08) +.069% +0.02 tsp cents

THE KEY:
+.05 thru +.01 Overpayment to the I-Fund (rare)
-.00 thru -.09 Low Difference (It's goals are met)
-.10 thru -.15 Medium Difference (Flip A Coin)
-.16 thru -.23 High Difference (rarely goes higher)

overpayments happen on down days to keep them within the target.

Originally Posted by luv2read

overpayments happen on down days to keep them within the target.

This could be explained away by something as common as, say, the
miscalculation of FV by Barclays. In 2007 it was more common to see
an Overpayment each day. Deficits were the rare exception. I found
this quite interesting, when given the facts concerning liquidity issues
facing the world.

Originally Posted by squalebear

This could be explained away by something as common as, say, the
miscalculation of FV by Barclays. In 2007 it was more common to see
an Overpayment each day. Deficits were the rare exception. I found
this quite interesting, when given the facts concerning liquidity issues
facing the world.

barclays miscalculate? *gasp*!!!

You did see the info about Barclays, FV and equity funds I cut from tsp.gov and posted in the MB?

I'm still wondering if Barclay's is using a proprietary exchange rate mechanism (maybe based on the pound since they are British), and they are having problems trying to use a system originally meant to smooth out little exchange rate blips on an exchange rate that now is experiencing lots of volitivity. Similar to the CPI/PPI are you kidding? measures of late, smoothing based on past trends isn't working right now.

I'm not educated in the ways of mechanisms, crystal balls or software
based rate evaluators that the Fund Managers may be using to come
up with some of these figures. Based on my 3rd year of tracking the
differences between the EFA and (I) Fund, there are facts which still
hold true. My Deficit/Overpayment definition is unchanged. I only wish
there was a way to track the actual MSCI EAFE INDEX during normal
trading hours, instead of the iShares EFA or $IEE which have their own
set of rules, fees and alike.

If the EFA closes today unchanged and the past 5 months of tracking
hasn't done a reverse on me, I foresee the current Overpayment of
+.02 tsp cents going back to the deficit side by underperforming the
EFA's returns. That would result in a lose within the (I) Fund. Should
we get a turn around (currently happening) and the EFA closes up
for the day, the (I) Fund could still see a gain, but less then the EFA
had to offer. Right now, the EFA is +.09%.

According to the Tracker, Norman and I are neck & neck for the most
IFT's in the month of May. What stands out more then that is the fact
that soooooo many have made 2 or less with 7 days left in May.

Could this be the new wave of the future ? Does 99.9% of all members
believe that Buy & Hold is the way to go ? (Nothing wrong with that) !

Maybe (and more likey) there is still some confussion over the rules and
that the Thrift Board (and TSP website) has failed in educating the 3.9
million participants of their abilities to move their money within the limits
imposed. I can't begin to tell you how many coworkers have come to ask
me about the new limits. And yes, even those who stated a few months
ago that they never touch their TSP money by doing IFT's. Should any
TSPtalk member have a question concerning the above, please feel free
to use my thread to ask your questions. I'll do my best to answer them
or direct you to the right place.

Originally Posted by squalebear

Maybe (and more likey) there is still some confussion over the rules and that the Thrift Board (and TSP website) has failed in educating the 3.9 million participants of their abilities to move their money within the limits imposed. I can't begin to tell you how many coworkers have come to ask me about the new limits. And yes, even those who stated a few months ago that they never touch their TSP money by doing IFT's. Should any TSPtalk member have a question concerning the above, please feel free to use my thread to ask your questions. I'll do my best to answer them or direct you to the right place.

A point that I have hammered repeatedly is that FRTIB and OPM are required BY LAW to educate TSP members. Relying on "self-education" from a website and "materials" doesn't meet that requirement. MANDATORY retirement seminars for new hires and for those within 5 years of retirement, and MANDATORY refreshers every 5 years are needed. If nothing else, this fiasco has made people aware that they need to pay attention to their TSP and to seek professional advice if they are lost. I wonder how many of them are within 5 years of retirement and suddenly realize they aren't going to have enough money to retire when they want to - and wish they had joined us in protesting the limits?

Originally Posted by squalebear

According to the Tracker, Norman and I are neck & neck for the most
IFT's in the month of May. What stands out more then that is the fact
that soooooo many have made 2 or less with 7 days left in May.

Could this be the new wave of the future ? Does 99.9% of all members
believe that Buy & Hold is the way to go ? (Nothing wrong with that) !

I think we are forced to analyze "trends" instead of the frequent swings.

If the Markets gained 3% or better on a given day I would sell, let it settle a day day or 2, then go back in.

If I knew the FED was bringing a huge rate cut - would go in for that.

But now we are forced to buy and hold "a little longer" - and that is an adjustment most of us will get over time. I doubt that even 10% of this MB believes Buy and Hold is the way to go.