Thread: Squalebear's Account Talk

Originally Posted by squalebear

I don't know if another 300 point drop is in the cards, but the opportunity
to catch some $cha-ching$ might be at hand. Good Luck my friend. I'll be
waiting for my release from "Bitter Bondage" until 9/1/08. It would take
Moses to change what the FRTIB has done to us. "Let My People Go" ! :toung:

THX same to you. I think Oil is going to spike and down it goes. The volume is so low right now and throw in a little fear with those who are trading seeing their money wasting away and it will be a sell off just in time for the big boys to jump right in. If I am right by the close on friday
C Fund - $14.05 .....S Fund - $17.30.....I Fund - $19.25.... Those are my estimates and based upon sell sell sell.

Originally Posted by Braveheart

THX same to you. I think Oil is going to spike and down it goes. The volume is so low right now and throw in a little fear with those who are trading seeing their money wasting away and it will be a sell off just in time for the big boys to jump right in. If I am right by the close on friday
C Fund - $14.05 .....S Fund - $17.30.....I Fund - $19.25.... Those are my estimates and based upon sell sell sell.

Nice try, I was thinking it was this week, too. Stupid hurricane, and it would have a haunting name "Gustav". If it changes direction or weakens, the game is afoot. If it wipes out the gulf, prices will go up, up, up....

I think the power of all things holy is not happy right now.

The intensity forecast for Gustav
As long as Gustav is over water, it will intensify. Gustav is currently under moderate wind shear (15 knots) . This shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range (0-15 knots) for the remainder of the week. Gustav is over the highest heat content waters in the Atlantic. Given these two factors, intensification is likely whenever the storm is over water, at least 50 miles from land. Expect the high mountains of Hispaniola to take a toll on Gustav... Expect at least a 25 mph decrease in Gustav's winds by Wednesday, after it encounters Haiti. Further weakening is likely if the storm passes close to or over Cuba. By Wednesday, Gustav will be underneath an upper-level anticyclone. These upper atmosphere high pressure systems can greatly intensify a tropical storm, since the clockwise flow of air at the top of the storm acts to efficiently vent away air pulled aloft by the storm's heavy thunderstorms. With high oceanic heat content also present in the waters off western Cuba, the potential for rapid intensification exists should the center stay more than 50 miles from the Cuban coast. Once in the Gulf of Mexico, Gustav is likely to intensify into a major Category 3 or higher storm. I give a 60% chance that Gustav will cause significant disruption to the oil and gas industry in the Gulf.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Jef...&tstamp=200808

Originally Posted by Frixxxx

Nice try, I was thinking it was this week, too. Stupid hurricane, and it would have a haunting name "Gustav". If it changes direction or weakens, the game is afoot. If it wipes out the gulf, prices will go up, up, up....

I think the power of all things holy is not happy right now.

The Oil play will be to do all it can to get it over $125 again. Gustav the name is from Sweden but it has that tough name and the water temp is 88+ so this could go from a 3 to a 4 once it hits open waters in a few hours and then what a 5 -----WTF. This country really can't take any more of this. Time to buy stock in Home Depot and builders down south.

Originally Posted by Braveheart

The Oil play will be to do all it can to get it over $125 again. Gustav the name is from Sweden but it has that tough name and the water temp is 88+ so this could go from a 3 to a 4 once it hits open waters in a few hours and then what a 5 -----WTF. This country really can't take any more of this. Time to buy stock in Home Depot and builders down south.

Now you're thinking like a trader. Bravo!!! Thanks for the tip! Don't forget oil services if it tears up infrastructure.

I love all your posts. It just proves how little I know !
I thought Gustav was Russian and Georgia was in the US !

I think that oil could spike to the 120's. The closer Gustov gets
to the Gulf Coast, the higher it will go. Any unpredicted turn
in direction could result in one of the biggest sell-offs we've seen
on a intraday basis. Demand continues to sink around the globe.
I believe that investors see oil (belonging) around $100-$110.
Any thing more is speculation on Gustav and the rising tensions
with Russia. As some have written, if disruption occurs in the
Gulf of Mexico (refinaries and off-shore rigs) all bets are off the
table for some time to come. Maybe up to $145-$150 per.

The O/D Tracker show the some of the debt was paid which drove the
tracker into the "Blue" flip-a-coin area. I haven't a clue where it goes
from here (up or down), but lean on the side of it staying right where
it is for tomarrow (In the "Blue" area). I've decided to do a little more
research concerning the past O/D results and its gonna take alot of
time. But when I get the results, I'll post them with great enthusiasm.
I only wish I had the time to reflect a "Buy" "Hold" "Sell" signal based
on this tracking. Never say never, It might be my next great adventure.


YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.2051 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.41%
(S) Fund vs.. DWCPF = 0.2744 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.51%
(I) .Fund vs. the EFA = 0.3220 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.61%
(F) Fund vs. the AGG = 0.3229 TSP Cent Overpayment or +2.65%

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/04/08) -0.0408% -0.4046 tsp cents
(8/05/08) -0.6135% -0.2821 tsp cents
(8/06/08) -0.1200% -0.2564 tsp cents
(8/07/08) +0.4625% -0.3490 tsp cents
(8/08/08) -0.1342% -0.3219 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.5811% -0.0953 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/11/08) +0.5724% -0.4440 tsp cents
(8/12/08) -0.0567% -0.4287 tsp cents
(8/13/08) -0.7199% -0.2719 tsp cents
(8/14/08) +0.6715% -0.4104 tsp cents
(8/15/08) -0.1735% -0.3715 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.0393%+0.0496 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/18/08) +0.0903% -0.3882 tsp cents
(8/19/08) -0.4733% -0.2878 tsp cents
(8/20/08) -0.1002% -0.2692 tsp cents
(8/21/08) -0.1488% -0.2401 tsp cents
(8/22/08) +0.0729% -0.2561 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.5591% -0.1154 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/25/08) +0.7622% -0.4063 tsp cents
(8/26/08) -0.4230% -0.3220 tsp cents
(8/27/08)...........................................
(8/28/08)...........................................
(8/29/08)...........................................
WEEKLY............................................

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .9999 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .2000 thru -.1000 (Not Seen Too Often)
- .1000 thru -.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
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YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
C=... -12.15%................+0.92% (my figures)
S=... -08.15%................
I=.... -19.25%................
F=... +02.10%................
G=... +02.49%................

MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
C=... +00.67%................+1.62% (my figures)
S=... +00.42%................
I =.... -06.08%................
F=... +00.84%................
G=... +00.28%................

Good Economic News Spikes Futures To The Positive Side

Duty Calls Tonight and the vampire in me see's the sun peeking in.
The US Market has currently busted through the 1% level and for
everyone in the risk funds; MAY IT HOLD OR RISE FROM HERE !
Good Luck Everyone, I'll be back with my updates tonight !

The (I) Fund unperforms against the EFA by a whopping -0.56% which
paid off enough debt to hit a monthly low of 0.21 tsp cents "Green". If
I might toot my horn alittle, I've hoped for the best concerning this
fund, but have said over and over, its likely to disappoint. The US market
kicked some EAFE butt today. I'm gonna twist a phrase that I recently
read in another post a couple of days ago. It really works here;
" THIS AIN'T YOUR FATHERS (I) FUND ANYMORE MY FRIENDS " That does
not mean "forever", that just means until it proves otherwise. Now the
US Market will have to deal with Gustav and the possibility of oil jumping
beyond its current levels. Take the money and run comes to mind, but
thats because I'm a proud little chiclett with no time or money to lose.
I'll be catching up on the Fannie-Mae news tonight and what it may hold
for the US market tomarrow. Until then, Good Luck In All Your Decisions !

YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.2094 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.43%
(S) Fund vs.. DWCPF = 0.2843 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.55%
(I) .Fund vs. the EFA = 0.2106TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.05%
(F) Fund vs. the AGG = 0.3245 TSP Cent Overpayment or +2.66%

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/04/08) -0.0408% -0.4046 tsp cents
(8/05/08) -0.6135% -0.2821 tsp cents
(8/06/08) -0.1200% -0.2564 tsp cents
(8/07/08) +0.4625% -0.3490 tsp cents
(8/08/08) -0.1342% -0.3219 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.5811% -0.0953 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/11/08) +0.5724% -0.4440 tsp cents
(8/12/08) -0.0567% -0.4287 tsp cents
(8/13/08) -0.7199% -0.2719 tsp cents
(8/14/08) +0.6715% -0.4104 tsp cents
(8/15/08) -0.1735% -0.3715 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.0393%+0.0496 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/18/08) +0.0903% -0.3882 tsp cents
(8/19/08) -0.4733% -0.2878 tsp cents
(8/20/08) -0.1002% -0.2692 tsp cents
(8/21/08) -0.1488% -0.2401 tsp cents
(8/22/08) +0.0729% -0.2561 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.5591% -0.1154 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/25/08) +0.7622% -0.4063 tsp cents
(8/26/08) -0.4230% -0.3220 tsp cents
(8/27/08) -0.5610% -0.2106 tsp cents
(8/28/08)...........................................
(8/29/08)...........................................
WEEKLY............................................

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .9999 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .2000 thru -.1000 (Not Seen Too Often)
- .1000 thru -.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------