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Thread: clester's Account Talk

  1. #3277

    Default Re: clester's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by clester View Post
    The RSI values are 63 ish on the S&P. This is a strong reading but not too strong yet to indicate overbought. 70 is a warning sign and 80 is a sell sign. We have some room left but as we reach the triple top area the RSI may be close to a warning area. Hope that doesn't cause a sell off. Plus, we have had a great January. So, I'm a little worried about profit taking coming soon. I hope we have another month to climb. March can be messy sometimes.
    I hear you. Since missing this run up I still have 2 trades as I was hoping we would see a test of the lows however with the Powell put firmly in place after hearing his "Patience" speech yesterday I get the feeling the most we might see is a minor pull back. Sucks that I missed the run but if this plays out like when Yellen established her "put" we could see plenty of upside and only minor pull backs along the way.

    So I need to rethink my plan as such my plan was to move in today in order to better utilize the two trades for next month. Of course today had to be up and on top of yesterdays big day so I'm with you in being worried. Hoping I didn't buy the high with Feb being a normally crappy month. Also what will Amazon do after the bell has me worried too.

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  3. #3278

    Default Re: clester's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by quabit View Post
    I hear you. Since missing this run up I still have 2 trades as I was hoping we would see a test of the lows however with the Powell put firmly in place after hearing his "Patience" speech yesterday I get the feeling the most we might see is a minor pull back. Sucks that I missed the run but if this plays out like when Yellen established her "put" we could see plenty of upside and only minor pull backs along the way.

    So I need to rethink my plan as such my plan was to move in today in order to better utilize the two trades for next month. Of course today had to be up and on top of yesterdays big day so I'm with you in being worried. Hoping I didn't buy the high with Feb being a normally crappy month. Also what will Amazon do after the bell has me worried too.
    Its tough trying to time a buy. Waiting for a pull back can leave you on the sidelines for way too long. Been there. Buying a rally can bite you too because at anytime a sell off can take place. I think the best advice is to make 2 buys of 50% so that you won't get burned if it goes bad. We are due a pull back .if we don't get one this month then march could be ugly.
    100 G
    RSI - Relative Strength Indicator DMA - day moving average

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  5. #3279

    Default Re: clester's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by clester View Post
    Its tough trying to time a buy. Waiting for a pull back can leave you on the sidelines for way too long. Been there. Buying a rally can bite you too because at anytime a sell off can take place. I think the best advice is to make 2 buys of 50% so that you won't get burned if it goes bad. We are due a pull back .if we don't get one this month then march could be ugly.
    I'll say one more thing that I've learned over the years. When every thinks something will happen. It usually doesn't. Lots of folks thinking a pull back is coming. Including me.
    100 G
    RSI - Relative Strength Indicator DMA - day moving average

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  7. #3280

    Default Re: clester's Account Talk

    Yeah, that marketwatch article (The evidence is in: Stocks are in a ?bull trap? - MarketWatch) exnavyew posted in his thread yesterday is enough to scare me out of the market. I was jumpy enough when the unemployment rate last Friday remained above its 12 MMA.

    I know my emotions are my own worst enemy so I am remaining in the market for now. I do have my hands on the ejection seat handle, though, as I look at the 200 DMA. I'm not going to ride this down again like I did last Oct/Nov/Dec.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

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  9. #3281

    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Cleveland, Ohio
    Posts
    12,148

    Default Re: clester's Account Talk

    Catcus, Road that same rollercoaster October through December. Still on the same coaster ride and almost back to even. Got a fresh box of sticky pants in January. Good luck.
    May the force be with us.

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  11. #3282

    Default Re: clester's Account Talk

    If we can pull back to the 2670 area or back to the 50 dam then that would be a good buying opportunity IMO. Still in bear market rules though. Most of the individual stocks I'm looking at got very overbought via RSI and that 'usually' means some profit taking is coming. It doesn't mean a big sell off is coming. It could be just enough to get out of the overbought status.
    100 G
    RSI - Relative Strength Indicator DMA - day moving average

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  13. #3283

    Default Re: clester's Account Talk

    RSI below 30 is a buy and below 20 is a screaming buy. At least a short term buy. I'd like to see a bounce first but under 20 I'm all in!
    100 G
    RSI - Relative Strength Indicator DMA - day moving average

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  15. #3284

    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Illinois :(
    Posts
    467

    Default Re: clester's Account Talk

    Nice to see you around Craig, don't be a stranger

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  17. #3285

    Default Re: clester's Account Talk

    I wouldn't be surprised if we go up and close the gap on S&P before going back down. I don't think its gonna be a V bottom here. But, I could be wrong
    100 G
    RSI - Relative Strength Indicator DMA - day moving average


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  19. #3286

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Oregon
    Posts
    3,651

    Default Re: clester's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by clester View Post
    I wouldn't be surprised if we go up and close the gap on S&P before going back down. I don't think its gonna be a V bottom here. But, I could be wrong
    Nice call on the RMI!

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  21. #3287

    Default Re: clester's Account Talk

    We're in no mans land now, imo. between the 50 and 200 dma and having filled the gap on S&P. We are still in an upward bias, 50 above the 200. I'm tempted to buy in soon. Ideally, we test the recent bottom and bounce. Then I'd buy. I'm conservative, so I'd like to see some stability first.
    100 G
    RSI - Relative Strength Indicator DMA - day moving average

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  23. #3288

    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Hampton Roads, VA
    Posts
    3,729

    Default Re: clester's Account Talk

    OK, you got a bounce, and then some. Is this a head fake? Or does it keep heading north?
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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