Thread: clester's Account Talk

Originally Posted by clester

Well, we may not get a test of the 50dma and if we do I expect a rally from there if we do. I've been looking for a good spot to put my 50% in, since I don't have a 100% buy signal yet. I don't think there will be a big sell off and I can use the 50dma as a stop if it busts below it, so I'm considering the 50% for today.

Well, I'm 50% S fund this morning. In my system I should really be 100% in stocks. My feeling is that we are staying in an uptrend until sometime this summer. Maybe July. So, I'll be looking for another buying opportunity to go 100%. The 50 dma is my sell stop in case we head down. If we break out to a new high for the year I will go all in. I'm being conservative though.

We could hit a bump near the end of March as the debt ceiling and continuing resolution hits.

Originally Posted by clester

Well, I'm 50% S fund this morning. In my system I should really be 100% in stocks. My feeling is that we are staying in an uptrend until sometime this summer. Maybe July. So, I'll be looking for another buying opportunity to go 100%. The 50 dma is my sell stop in case we head down. If we break out to a new high for the year I will go all in. I'm being conservative though.

We could hit a bump near the end of March as the debt ceiling and continuing resolution hits.

Well, my buy point looks to be a a little early. Is it because of the sequester? If so, why now? I thought we didn't care? Next up is the debt ceiling. Could be a bumpy Month.

This is the reason I only went in 50%. I am now looking for a good buying point for the other 50%. That could happen if we successfully test the latest low which is about the 50dma. I will look to sell if we break that point.

Originally Posted by clester

Well, my buy point looks to be a a little early. Is it because of the sequester? If so, why now? I thought we didn't care? Next up is the debt ceiling. Could be a bumpy Month.

This is the reason I only went in 50%. I am now looking for a good buying point for the other 50%. That could happen if we successfully test the latest low which is about the 50dma. I will look to sell if we break that point.

I may buy today's dip.

Originally Posted by clester

I may buy today's dip.

Oops, too late? Wow, that dip didnt last. The s fund is lagging though so I still may buy it. We bounced off 1500 which is positive.

Originally Posted by clester

Oops, too late? Wow, that dip didnt last. The s fund is lagging though so I still may buy it. We bounced off 1500 which is positive.

100% S fund. Stop loss 763 ish on $EMW.

Originally Posted by clester

100% S fund. Stop loss 763 ish on $EMW.

Even with all the sequestration and debt ceiling looming?

Originally Posted by jkenjohnson

Even with all the sequestration and debt ceiling looming?

Wall of worry...

Originally Posted by jkenjohnson

Even with all the sequestration and debt ceiling looming?

Yep. I don't base my moves based on news. Its too hard to figure. It is a worry though. I have a stop loss target just in case I'm wrong.

Originally Posted by clester

Yep. I don't base my moves based on news. Its too hard to figure. It is a worry though. I have a stop loss target just in case I'm wrong.

Could be a really bumpy month :/

Originally Posted by KevinD

Wall of worry...

Could be.

As long as there are worries out there, not everyone will buy in leaving room for folks to slowly give in and buy. It's when everyone is already in that is trouble. It the contrarian view.

But I do believe in finding a chart based point where you will sell on the way down if your wrong. Too many times I have been stubborn and stuck with my losing trade and got hurt bad. Some folks refuse to take a loss. It's not a sign of weakness.

This morning I was reminded of why I don't like buying on Fridays. The futures were down about 6 points because of news out of china over the weekend.

I am still looking for the rally to continue for a while with a bump toward the end of the month as politics heats up once again. I think the market is starting to get used to the political turmoil and won't act drastically to anything that might happen. Gridlock appears to be priced in. We'll see.

We should go back to a slow grind up until then with volatility coming down. That's my crystal ball talking.